Thursday August 4, 2005 - 14:08:48 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
Global-View Monthly Forex Survey Results
In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar turned slightly less bullish against the euro. The three month ahead forecast for EURUSD was a mean 1.2072 from 1.1997 a month earlier earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (August 2 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.2190.
The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index (0-100 50=neutral) turned more bearish the EURUSD after the recent changes in the spot rate to 40 from 43 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USDJPY mean dollar forecast improved to 109.84 from 109.23 one month ago, but the latest mean USD/JPY forecast was for below the spot rate at the time of the poll. The USDJPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 111.80. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index became more positive the dollar from the previous forecast. It was 40 after 47.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to rise to a mean $60.84 in three months from the current spot vs. the previous $59.60 estimate.
In a tracking question, participants were asked where the Fed funds rate would close the year. 28% expected an increase to 3.75% or less from its current 3.25%, 42% expect a move to 4.00%, and 30% see 4.25%.
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