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Monday January 20, 2014 - 12:03:54 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Iran says it has suspended 0% of uranium enrichment under the P5+1 deal EU Market Update: Iran says it has suspended 0% of uranium enrichment under the P5+1 deal
Mon, 20 Jan 2014 5:10 AM EST

- Chinese economic data comes in mixed
- (CN) China 2013 GDP comes in at 14-year low; Q4 GDP Q/Q: 1.8% v 2.0%e; Y/Y: 7.7% v 7.6%e)
- (CN) China Dec Industrial Production hits 5-month low Y/Y: 9.7% v 9.8%e
- Lending rates are up sharply in China, in part due to diminished expectations of more easing from PBoC amid "steady" economic transition; Seasonality ahead of the New Year holidays also keeping borrowing rates elevated.
- China PBoC: To offer short-term cash to small banks via short-term lending facility when 7-day Repo Rate moves above 7%
- Japan final industrial production registers first decline in 3 months
- Deutsche Bank released prelim Q4 pretax loss following Friday press speculation of lower guidance

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Dec Final Machine Tool Orders YoY: 28.1% v 28.0% prelim
- (PH) Philippine Dec Balance of Payments (BOP) m/m: $419M v $837M prior
- (DE) Germany Dec PPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.6%e
- (TW) Taiwan Dec Export Orders Y/Y: 7.4% v 2.0%e
- (JP) Japan Dec Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.4% prior
- (ES) Spain Nov Industrial Orders (unadj): Y/Y: -2.2% v -4.0% prior; Industrial Orders WDA Y/Y: -5.1% v -6.4% prior
- (EU) ECB 114M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 371M prior; 36.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 32.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Unemployment Rate: 3.2% v 3.3%e
- (IT) Italy Nov Industrial Sales M/M: +0.9% v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: +0.4% v -1.3% prior
- (IT) Italy Nov Industrial Orders M/M: 2.3% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 1.5%e
- (IL) Israel Jan CPI Forecast: No est v 1.8% prior
- (IL) Israel Dec M1 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 15.2% prior

Fixed Income
- None-seen

Indices [FTSE 100 -0.1% at 6,824, DAX -0.3% at 9,714, CAC-40 0.0% at 4,326, IBEX-35 -0.2% at 10,445, FTSE MIB -0.2% at 19,925, SMI 0.0% 8,477, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 1,833]

- Market Focal Points: European markets opened broadly lower in sympathy with Asian markets which sold off after confirmation of slowing Chinese growth (Q4 GDP 7.7% v 7.7%e). The mining sector opened lower after a vote by South African platinum and gold workers to strike later in the week; as well on the slowing of the Chinese economy. The banking sector was lower after DB surprised with an early release of a Q4 loss. Markets traded in a relatively tight range after the lower open in light trading ahead of a US market holiday.

By Sector
- Industrials [Peugeot UG.FR -4.4% (board approves 3B capital hike)]
- Financials [Deutsche Bank DBK.DE -2.4% (reports prelim Q4 loss)
- Consumer Discretionary [Anheuser-Busch InBev ABI.BE +0.8% (buys Oriental Breweries for $5.8B), Mothercare MTC.UK +4.2% (Tesco planning bid))
- Basic Materials/Resources [Lanxess LXS.DE -3.5% (broker downgrade)]

- Ireland Debt Agency chief Corrigan stated that it would make announcement on possible auctions in next few weeks . The country could see another sovereign upgrade in 12-15 months. Irish debt to GDP ratio to peak at around 120%
- Russia First Dep Shuvalov stated that he did not see dramatic rise in unemployment and was prepared for any scenario including a sharp drop in global economy. Unemployment Rate won't exceed 6.0-6.5% in near future and the Govt had resources to combat any downturn and keep up social spending
- Sweden FSA chief Norman stated that its banking sector was very healthy and would decide on banking union after it was finalized. Fundamental factors explained the rise in the country's house prices but evident that bubble risked being created from low interest rates
- South Africa AMCU union votes to strike on Thursday, Jan 23rd over pay in South African Platinum mines
- Japan Vice Fin Min Furukawa reiterated the view that it could not cut corporate tax rate to 25% without other sources of revenue to make up the shortfall
- China PBoC: To offer short-term cash to small banks via short-term lending facility when 7-day Repo Rate moves above 7%
- Iran will stop 20% uranium enrichment today when talks with the UN nuclear watchdog were likely end
- According to the UN Nuclear Agency Iran has suspended 20% of uranium enrichment under the P5+1 deal

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX price action was quiet with limited data releases and US closed for holiday. The Far East session did see some volatility following mixed Chinese data. The AUD/USD hit 3 1/2 year lows below $0.8760 before rebounding. Net weak data out of China and Japan supported the bearish argument for the Aussie. The Japanese yen posted moderate gains and hit a 1-week low below 103.90.

Political/In the Papers:
- (IE) Moody's raises Ireland sovereign rating to investment grade; rating raised one notch to Baa3 from Ba1; outlook revised to positive
- (GR) Greece PM Samaras considering cabinet reshuffle and a possible snap election as SYRIZA has said it will try to force elections in Feb
- Portugal opposition Socialist party rejects PM Coelho's plan for a cross-party agreement on govt spending cuts
- (UR) Anti-riot police clashed with protesters in Kiev, Ukraine on Sunday after several thousand marchers tried to break through the police cordon around the govt parliament building - press
- (IT) Italy's DP party leader Renzi and former PM Berlusconi reach agreement on political reform that will make Italy more governable - press
- (JP) BOJ to maintain FY15 target for beating deflation - Kyodo News
- (CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): $1.1T spending bill passed by US Congress last week clashes with fair trade - financial press
- (CN) China Navy said to be building its second aircraft carrier - Chinese press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 05:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Dec PPI M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.9% prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell 2016, 2024 bonds
- 06:00 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell up to 4.0B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON500M in Bonds
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Dec Average Gross Wages M/M: 8.9%e v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: 3.2%e v 3.1% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Dec Employment M/M: -0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior
- 08:00 Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming 6-Month and 12-Month Bill auction
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 8.9B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Jan Consumer Confidence Index: No est v -5 prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.25%
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel addresses Deutsche Boerse event in Frankfurt
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 CPI Q/Q: -0.1%e v +0.9% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.4% prior




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