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Tuesday January 21, 2014 - 11:22:12 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: China PBoC liquidity add helps equity markets to recover; German ZEW Survey comes in mixed but confirm economic upswing

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: China PBoC liquidity add helps equity markets to recover; German ZEW Survey comes in mixed but confirm economic upswing
Tue, 21 Jan 2014 5:22 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- China PBoC conducted 7-day and 21-day reverse repos to satisfy demand ahead of Lunar New Year Holiday. This was first injection after 7 consecutive halted operations and biggest injection since Feb 2013; Shibor fixings fall as a result and allowing Asian equity markets to recover
- Commodity currencies failed to gain any support from China's injection of liquidity
- German ZEW Survey comes in mixed but current conditions confirm expectations of an economic upswing

***Economic Data***
- (ZA) South Africa Nov Leading Indicator: 100.3 v 100.5 prior
- (FI) Finland Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.9% v 7.4%e
- (CH) Swiss Dec M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.6 v 9.0% prior
- (EU) ECB 452M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 114M prior; 33.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 36.5B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands Jan Consumer Confidence Index: -12 v -14e
- (NL) Netherlands Dec House Price Index M/M: +0.5% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -3.7% v -4.7% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec CPI Composite Y/Y: 4.3% v 4.3%e
- (IS) Iceland Dec Wage Index M/M: -0.1% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: 6.0% v 6.1% prior
- (DE) Germany Jan ZEW Current Situation Survey: 41.2 (highest since April 2006) v 35.0e; Expectations Survey: 61.7 v 64.0e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan ZEW Expectations Survey: 73.3 v 68.3 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Q3 House Prices Q/Q: +0.6%; Y/Y: -1.3%

Fixed Income
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell combined 3.0-4.0B indicated in 6-Month and 12-Month Bills

- Sold 1.0B in 6-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.510% v 0.686% prior; Bid-to-cover: 5.07x v 2.87x prior
- Sold 2.96B in 12-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.726% v 0.883% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.41x v 2.64x prior
- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK1.585B in 2023 and 2039 Bonds
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.35B in 2030, 2037 and 2048 bonds
- (EU) ECB allotted 116.3B in 7-day Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.25% vs. 105.

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.4%
, DAX +0.3% at 9,747, CAC-40 +0.3% at 4,336, IBEX-35 +0.2% at 10,476, FTSE MIB +0.6% at 20,095, SMI +0.5% at 8,521, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 1,837]

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets trade slightly higher tracking Asia, French Power equipment firm Alstom warns on outlook, SAP guides FY14 results below ests, Currency effects continue to hurt European corporates (Unilever, DSM, SABMiller), Shares of Deutsche Bank see only slight bounce following Monday's declines, Brokers cautious on shares of Moncler, German ZEW data mixed, Upcoming US earnings (Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Delta, Verizon, JNJ),

By Sector
- Financials
[BNP BNP.FR +2% (broker commentary)]
- Healthcare [Novozymes NZYMB.DK +2% (Q4 profits above ests)]
- Technology [SDL SDL.UK +9% (guidance above ests), Wirecard WDI.DE +5% (Q4 results above ests);; SAP SAP.DE -0.5% (FY14 guidance below ests)]
Industrials [Finmeccanica FNC.IT +5% (broker commentary) SGS SGSN.CH +5% (FY results in line); Alstom ALO.FR -11% (profit warning), DSM DSM.NL -8% (cautious outlook)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [African Barrick Gold ABG.UK (FY13 production above guidance)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Unilever UNA.NL +3.5% (Q4 sales above ests), Promethean World PRW.UK +14% (raised outlook); SABMiller SAB.UK -1.5% (Q3 volumes below ests)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.9%, Financials +0.3%, Telecom +0.2%, Consumer Cyclical +0.2%, Basic Materials +0.2%, Energy +0.1%; Technology -0.9%, Utilities -0.2%, Industrials -0.1%]

Speakers:
- Italy PM Letta
was said to be considering reshuffle of Cabinet and confidence vote in Parliament before end of Jan. Coalition program to focus on labor reform and increasing competitiveness. Letta might resign before asking for new mandate
- Portugal govt said to have ask Eurogroup to postpone discussions on the country's bailout exit. Govt looking to issue long term bonds as soon as possible to aid in pre-funding for 2015 needs
- Germany ZEW Economists stated that current conditions confirm expectations of an economic upswing. Most important change in German sentiment was in the world economic outlook which had a strong impact on some sectors. It expected real long-term interest rates expected to rise over next 6 months. It added that German sentiment had reached a plateau as it was at a historically high level
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Ekholm (dove) noted that signs that it was a bit late to make monetary policy more expansive
- IEA Monthly Report raised its 2014 demand growth forecast by 100K bpd to 1.3M bpd with Dec Global supplies at 92.23M bpd, -25K bpd m/m. It noted that unexpectedly strong deliveries in the United States lifted global oil demand for the final quarter of last year by 135K barrels per day. OECD oil demand grew in 2013 for first time since 2010

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- On Monday numerous banks (Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanly and ING) suggested that their strategy would be to sell into Euro strength as the EUR/USD approached the 1.3580 area. The Euro did encounter some softness as dealers noted rising short-end rates might increase speculation that the ECB will cut its repo rate in February
- For the GBP currency dealers focused on speculation that the IMF was poised to raise UK GDP growth forecast from 1.9% to 2.4% when its releases its WEO update later today. Some dealer speculation that UK could face a sovereign upgrade at a future following the IMF improvement in its growth forecast
- Dealer chatter picked up on the CFH currency. The chart formations are starting to suggest a pending trend for the Swiss. Dealers seem to like a weaker CHF currency. EUR/CHF cross above 1.2370 likely to open the door for more upside potential
- Commodity currencies failed to gain any support from China's injection of liquidity with dealers surmising that the bearish AUD and CAD trends were set to remain intact.

Political/In the Papers:
- (ES) Spain PM Rajoy: Reiterates will cut income tax in Spain next year
- -UN rescinded its invitation for Iran to attend peace talks this week on Syria after Iran's failure to endorse 2012 Geneva I communique
- (CN) Former PBoC adviser/director of National Economic Research Institute Fan Gang: China potential growth rate may slow to 7-8% in this decade
- China issues new write-off policies to lifts control over bank bad loans which would make it easier to write off personal business loans less than CNY5M.
- WSJ's Hilsenrath: Fed on track to continue tapering at Jan meeting; could announce another $10B cut to bond buying

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (TR) Turkey PM Erogan with EU officials in Brussels
- (EU) EU Ashton with P5+1 political directors in Geneva on Iran talks
- (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-month Bills
- 06:00 (UK) Jan CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: 10e v 12 prior; Selling Prices: 12e v 11 prior; Business Optimism: 252 v 24 prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell New 2015 Zero Coupon Bonds
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell up to 2.5B in 6-month bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset govt bond purchases under SMP program
- 07:00 (TR) Turkey Central Bank (TCMB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave key rates unchanged. Expected to leave Benchmark Repurchase Rate unchanged at 4.50%; Expected to leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 7.75%; Expected to leave Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 3.50%
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Rate (NBH) Expected to cut Base rate by 10bps to 2.90%
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Dec Sold Industrial Output M/M: -6.3%e v -6.2% prior; Y/Y: 10.4%e v 2.9% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Dec PPI M/M: -0.2%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.1%e v -1.5% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.3%e v 1.4% prior; Manufacturing Sales M/M: 0.3%e v 1.0% prior
- 09:00 IMF to release its updated forecast in the Jan 21st World Economic Outlook (WEO)
-10:00 (MX) Weekly Mexico International Reserves
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.0-1.5B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $54B in in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Q4 CPI Q/Q: 0.5%e v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 2.2% prior
- (JP) BOJ Interest Rate Decision on Wed: Expected to maintain current policy

 

 

 

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