Thursday August 4, 2005 - 14:15:52 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
Analysis of Global-View Monthly Forex Survey Results
Analysis courtesy Cumino:
GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).
EUR USD 3 months: (1st day close 1.2198, av. responses 1.2072, Adjusted boundaries 1.18-1.26).
GVI 40%(43%) [3mSMA 45%].
COMPONENTS 44%, 33%, 23% (31%, 52%. 17%)
[3Msma 33%, 45%, 22% (31%, 49%, 20%)].
Bearish, roughly unchanged. Perceived increasing volatility, with 20% changing their neutral view.
USD JPY 3 months: (1st day close 111.40, av. responses 109.84, Adjusted boundaries 107-115)
GVI: 45%(41%) [3mSMA 44% (43%)].
COMPONENTS: 21%, 68%, 11% (23%,73%, 4%) [3mSMA 20%, 71%, 9% (22%, 70%, 8%)].
Unchanged, on the whole bearish USD. Short term measures (restricted boundaries) show declining USD sentiment for the third time.
Judging by surveys EUR/JPY was a sort of conundrum, at best.
OIL 3 months: (1st day close 61.89, av. responses 60.84, Adjusted boundaries 55-69)
46% (68%) [3mSMA 48% (48%)]
COMPONENTS: 16%, 77%, 7% (5%, 54%, 41%) [3mSMA17%, 70%, 13%( 17%, 69%, 14%)].
Turning neutral /slightly bearish after the last spike. The high number thus didnít last those 2/3 surveys which represent a contrarian signal.
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