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Wednesday January 22, 2014 - 10:59:32 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: UK ILO Unemployment Rate edges even closer to BOE's threshold EU Market Update: UK ILO Unemployment Rate edges even closer to BOE's threshold
Wed, 22 Jan 2014 5:12 AM EST

- BOJ maintained its current monetary policy stance (as expected); To maintain pace of monetary base at annual 60-70T; Maintains overall economic assessment (5th straight month)
- Australia Q4 CPI comes in hotter than expected and dims prospect of another interest rate cut (Q/Q: 0.8% vs. 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.4%e) Note: RBA Inflation Target is between 2.0-3.0% band
- BOE acknowledged quicker than anticipated recovery in its minutes
- UK Nov ILO Unemployment Rate just above the BOE threshold for forward guidance (7.1% v 7.0% threshold); Threshold to be hit "materially earlier" than previously thought

- UK Dec Jobless Claims Change registers its 14th straight month of improvement

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Nov Final Leading Index CI: 111.1 v 110.8 prelim; Coincident Index: 110.7 v 110.5 prelim
- (TH) Thailand Central Bank (BoT) left its Benchmark Interest unchanged at 2.25% (not expected)
- (DK) Denmark Dec Retail Sales M/M: -0.6% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v +0.5% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Dec CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 5.4% v 5.6%e
- (ZA) South Africa Dec CPI Core M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 5.3% v 5.4%e
- (EU) ECB 162M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 452M prior; 27.7B parked in deposit facility vs. 33.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (MY) Malaysia Dec CPI Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.1%e
- (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Minutes voted 9-0 (unanimous) to keep both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target at current levels of 0.50% and 375B respectively
- (UK) Dec Jobless Claims Change: -24.0K v -32.0Ke; Claimant Count Rate: 3.7% v 3.7%e

- (UK) Nov Average Weekly Earnings 3/Y: 0.9% v 1.0%e; Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y: 0.9% v 1.0%e
- (UK) Nov ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.1% v 7.3%e; Employment Change 3M/3M: +280K v +256Ke
- (UK) Dec Public Finances (PSNCR): 9.0B v 5.0Be; PSNB ex Interventions: 12.1B v 14.0Be; Public Sector Net Borrowing: 10.4B v 12.0Be
- (IT) Italy Nov Current Account Balance: 2.8B v 4.0B prior
- (CH) Swiss Jan Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: 36.4 v 39.4 prior
- (EU) Euro Area Q3 Government Debt: 92.7% v 93.4% q/q

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) opened books to sell 10-year benchmark Euro-denominated Apr 2024 bond at +178bp over mid-swaps (Implies yield below 3.9%)with order book over 22B

- (IN) India sold total INR70B vs. INR70B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- (RU) Russia sold RUB7.69B vs. RUB10B indicated in Aug 2023 OFZ bond; Yield: 8.01%
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK10B in 3-month Bills; Yield: 0.7285% v 0.7283% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.58% vs. $0.0M prior (18th straight week without any allotment)

Indices [Stoxx50 flat,
FTSE 100 flat at 6,835, DAX -0.1% at 9,720, CAC-40 +0.1% at 4,328, IBEX-35 -0.4% at 10,319, FTSE MIB +0.2% at 20,035, SMI -0.4% at 8,455, S&P 500 futures flat at 1,838]

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets open higher following sharp gains in Chinese stocks and later pare gains, DAX trades near record high, ABB issues profit warning, Steel merger between Finland's Rautaruukki and Sweden's SSAB, Chip equipment firm ASML Q4 results above ests

By Sector
- Basic Materials/Resources
[Shares of SSAB SSABA.SE (+14%) and Rautaruukki (+31%) gain on proposed merger]
- Consumer Discretionary [JD Wetherspoon JDW.UK +2% (Q2 sales above ests)]
- Industrials [ABB ABBN.CH -3% (profit warning), Henkel HEN3.DE -1% (broker commentary); Lifewatch LIFE.CH +25% (partnership in China)]
- Financials [Colonial COL.ES -9% (capital raise), RBS RBS.UK -2% (broker commentary), Allianz ALV.DE -1% (CEO change at PIMCO unit); Intesa ISP.IT +1.5% (broker commentary), Bankinter BKT.ES +1% (FY results above ests)]
- Technology [ASML ASML.NL +4% (results above ests, raised dividend)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Technology +2.6%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.5%, Energy +0.5%, Utilities +0.4%, Telecom +0.3%, Basic Materials +0.3%, Consumer Cyclical +0.2%; Financials -0.9%, Industrials -0.2%]

- BOE Minutes noted that there was no immediate need to up bank rate if 7% jobless threshold was it and it did NOT have any discussion on lowering jobless threshold.
Monetary conditions had become tighter as investors priced in Spring 2015 rate hike and faster tightening thereafter. UK recovery had more momentum than prior view and saw upside to growth forecast for Q4 2013 and Q1 2014. Likely inflationary pressures to remain constrained and that chances of CPI being above 2.5% knockout has fallen
- ECB's Coeure (France) commented that it needed to shorten set-up of Single Resolution Fund (SRF) to 5-years from current 10-years and that a common backstop was necessary for transition period to guarantee fund credibility. The Supervisory alone should determine if a bank has failed or is failing. Low inflation was as bad as high inflation
- Poland Central Bank Survey: Companies did not see CPI acceleration in Q1
- BOJ Gov Kuroda post rate decision press conference stressed that Japan economy was moving smoothly towards its 2% price target. He reiterated that view that expected to see 2% inflation by end fiscal year 2014 into fiscal year 2015. BOJ would continue with its current policy if risk did not appear and that downside risks to Japan economy were receding. Growth to slow significantly in Q2 (from increase in sales tax) before gradually recovering.
He also reiterated that monetary policy was aimed at domestic price stability not currency levels
- Thailand Central Bank post rate decision statement noted that the vote to hold rates steady was 4 to 3. It stated that monetary policy was appropriate and that its current economic fundamentals were good withstanding political impact. Thai political situation was a short-term risk but it did cut it 2013 GDP growth forecast to less than 3% vs. prior view of around 3%
- Ukraine PM Azarov commented that organizers of clashes were responsible for victims as police near govt buildings didnot have guns; will investigate casualties
- Reports circulated that the US would impose sanctions against the Ukraine

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX market was relatively tame. EUR/USD retested recent high of 1.3580 before settling to near net unchanged levels around 1.3540 area
- UK data continued to show improvement in its recovery. The GBP surged as the ILO Unemployment Rate edged closed to the BOE threshold of 7.0%. The GBP/USD rose by 0.7% to test above 1.6540. EUR/GBP cross hit a fresh 1-year low below 0.8185 while GBP/CHF cross hit its highest level since Nov 2012 as it moved towards 1.51 area. The BOE minutes appeared to be a touch dovish. The MPC did not bring up forward guidance. There had been some speculation that BOE Gov Carney could amend forward guidance by changing the unemployment benchmark at which an interest rate hike would be considered to 6.5% from 7%
- AUD/USD moved away from 3 year lows Australian Q4 CPI that came in double market expectations at +0.8% q/q .

Political/In the Papers:
-IMF's Blanchard: Estimates deflation probability in the EMU at 20%
-IMF updates its World Economic Outlook (WEO): Raises 2014 Global GDP growth outlook to 3.7% from 3.6%
- (PT) Portugal Econ Min Lima: growth may top 1% in 2014

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CH) Swiss government holds regular meeting
- World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel, Cabinet of CDU, SPD Ministers holds First Conclave
- (SY) Geneva II peace talks on Syria
- (PT) Portugal Econ Min Loma in Madrid
- (PT) Portugal Nov Current Account Balance: No est v 10.5M prior
- (ES) Spain Nov Trade Balance: No est v -1.4B prior
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 4.0B in 0% 2015 Schatz
- 06:00 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Jansson
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2016 and 2023 bonds
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 17th: No est v +11.9% prior
- 07:00 (UK) PM Cameron Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell RUB10B in May 2019 OFZ bond
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (GR) Greece Fin Min Stournaras:
- 10:00 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 1.00%
- 10:00 (PT) Portugal Parliament debates budget adjustment
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Tax Collections (BRL): 116.0Be v 112.5B prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.25-3.00B in notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $15B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (CN) Chinese Ambassador Zhang speaks at University of Toronto
- 13:30 (UK) BOE's McCafferty in Nottingham
- 14:00 (CA) Canada Dep PM Gilmour
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Dec Department Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 5.3% prior; Discount Store sales Y/Y: No est v 1.0% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Weekly Oil Inventories
- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.9%e v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.9%e v 3.3% prior
- 19:00 (AU) Australia Jan Consumer Inflation Expectation: No est v 2.1% prior
- 20:45 (CN) China Jan HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI: 50.3w v 50.5 prior




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