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U.K. Jobs data strong Bank of Canada dovish. Hot Australia CPI

U.K. Jobs data strong Bank of Canada dovish. Hot Australia CPI
23 January 2014 00:00 gmt
  calendar
CALENDAR: Far East: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ/DE/FR flash PMIs, EZ- Consumer Confidence US- Weekly Jobs, Markit PMIs,  Existing Homes Sales, Leading vindicators, Nat Gas, Weekly Crude, CA- Retail Sales


Spot
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
 EURUSD 1.3545
 1.3646
 U.S. 2.85% +1bp
  North America: Steady
 EURJPY 141.35
 142.63
 Bund 1.75% +1bp
 DAX: Steady
 GBPUSD 1.6549
 1.6432
 GILT 2.88% +4bp
 FTSE: higher
 USDJPY 104.35
 104.53
  JGB 0.68% -1bp  Far East Close: Higher

HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ/DE/FR flash PMIs, EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- Weekly Jobs, Markit PMIs,  Existing Homes Sales, Leading vindicators, CA- Retail Sales
  • Key U.K.Jobs data for December were stronger than forecast, The unemployment rate at 7.10% moved into range of the previous 7.0% policy threshold of the BOE. The GBP is higher and gilt yields have risen. See the FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.

  • The Bank of Canada kept policy steady as expected on Wednesday. Markets were not surprised by its dovish posture but took special note of its apparent lack of concern about recent CAD weakness. The CAD is weaker. No rate changes are expected, but a dovish policy stance is probable. See the FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released. 
  • Australia 4Q13 CPI data were hotter than expected and might have taken a rate cut off the table. Aus 10-yr yields are higher and the AUD has risen n response to developments.
  • Fed policy is very much data-dependent. That will not change when Yellen takes the helm from Bernanke in just  under two weeks. Friday was the major data day of the past week. Housing Starts and Permits for December provide an advance look at the critical (for job creation) housing industry and they are now showing little improvement from the middle of 2013.
  • U.S. data recently has been sending mixed signals. Key housing and the University of Michigan survey data seem to be indicating that the real-time economy might be flattening out while other recently-released data have been suggesting the economy continues to recover.
  •  Flash PMI's for a slew of counties will be out on Thursday. Friday will see see CPI figures from Canada. For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar. See the FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.

FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM


John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Copyright 2013, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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