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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - FASTER GROWTH QUESTIONS MONETARY POLICY STANCES

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS   FRIDAY 24 - 31 JAN 2014  

FASTER GROWTH QUESTIONS MONETARY POLICY STANCES

FOMC set to taper by further $10bn, Q4 GDP growth expected up by solid 3.4%

UK GDP growth forecast up 0.8% - perhaps not the stellar rate markets thought

Spanish Q4 GDP to show ongoing recovery, but euro area jobless still a concern

Recoveries become more established ... The UFOMC announcement will be the highlight of the coming week, although a further $10bn taper is widely expected. Q4 GDP estimates will otherwise be the focus, with releases from the US, UK and Spain. All look set to post signs of growth that should support market sentiment.

 

FOMC continues easy taper... The coming week’s FOMC meeting will mark the end of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s eventful eight-year term. His last meeting is likely to continue the cautious pace of tapering started in December. We expect the Fed to reduce its asset purchases by a further $10bn, $5bn from Treasuries and $5bn from mortgage bonds. This is a widely held expectation despite the sharp drop in December’s payrolls growth, which appears partly weather distorted. This meeting will also prepare Bernanke’s successor, Janet Yellen, for her first major address as new Fed Chair, which is likely to be the semiannual testimony to Congress next month. The outlook for Fed policy is complicated by steep declines in the unemployment rate, presently at 6.7%, close to the threshold the Fed first suggested it would begin to consider tighter policy. While there is no suggestion the Fed will tighten any time soon, Yellen’s task will be to gauge the appropriate pace of tapering and eventual rate increase if the labour

market exhibits ongoing signs of tightening. US GDP to post firm close to 2013 ... The key data release for the US is likely to be the first estimate of Q4 GDP. We forecast this at a relatively firm 3.4% annualised rate, driven by buoyant consumer spending, trade and investment. This would be a decent outturn given an expected hefty fall in government spending, in part related to the shutdown. We expect growth in 2014 to be 3.2%, helped by less fiscal tightening. Expansion at this pace seems consistent with the Fed ’s careful withdrawal of stimulus.

 

UK GDP growth solid, not stel lar ... The UK also publishes first estimates of Q4 GDP. After disappointing monthly releases in manufacturing, construction and services we see downside risks to our 0.8% forecast for Q4 - a view mirrored in the range of market forecasts. But even 0.8% growth would be slower than surveys and the increase in hours worked in the three months to November suggest, the latter pointing to a further fall in productivity. This would likely be softer than markets considered at the close of last year. Nevertheless, solid economic growth and a tightening labour market has convinced some of the case for an earlier tightening in monetary policy.

Governor Carney speaks from Scotland on Wednesday. He is expected to discuss the outlook for Scotland, but his speech looks likely to repeat the ‘no immediate hike, then gradual tightening’ message evident since January’s MPC minutes.

 

Brighter signs for Euro area? ... January’s strongerthan expected PMIs should be reflected in national confidence indicators in the coming week. We also expect a relatively upbeat Spanish Q4 GDP, due on Thursday, forecasting a 0.3% rise in Q4.

This should underpin GDP expansion in 2014 close to the Euro area average. In fact we expect Spain to expand faster than Germany in Q4, while

French growth may also be lifted in Q4 ahead ofJanuary’s VAT rise. However, France and Italy still look like being the laggards in the Euro area’s drive to reform and recover. Moreover, the French VAT rise is likely to help lift January’s preliminary estimate of euro area inflation back to 1% for the first time since September. But with unemployment also likely to be confirmed at record levels of 12.1% in the coming week, risks of lower inflation will persist until faster growth becomes more established.

 

 

 

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Lloyds Bank is a trading name of Lloyds Bank plc and Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds Bank plc. Registered Office: 25 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7HN. Registered in England and Wales no. 2065. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound, Edinburgh EH1 1YZ. Registered in Scotland no. SC327000. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority under registration bnumbers 119278 and 169628 respective



 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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