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German IFO Survey due along with more U.S. Housing data
|German IFO Survey due along with more U.S. Housing data|
27 January 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: DE- IFO Survey, US- New Homes Sales
| EURUSD 1.3675
|| U.S. 2.73% -4bp
|| North America: Lower|
| EURJPY 139.96
|| Bund 1.66% -4bp
|| DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6501
|| GILT 2.77% -3bp
|| FTSE: Lower|
| USDJPY 102.33
|| JGB 0.62% -4bp
|| Far East Close: Lower|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: DE- IFO Survey, US- New Homes Sales
- The past few days have seen a "risk off" trade led by equities. Concern was triggered by a poor (sub-50) reading in the HSBC flash PMI for January. The data reinforced worries about the credit-worthiness of their banking system. Some have been hoping that China could be one of the engines of world growth. Also of concern has been the economic/political uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey. Interestingly the EUR and gold have been the safe-haven plays. Recently, the USD has been losing its safe-haven status.
- Wednesday sees the final FOMC meeting before Ben Bernanke's term as Chairman runs out. We expect no surprises from the meeting. It has been made fairly clear that the central bank will announce another tapering of its asset purchases.
- The central bank will continue to hit home the theme that a tapering does not mean policy is not being tightened. The Fed will continue its ultra-easy short-term interest rate policy well into the future. Janet Yellen will replace Bernanke when he steps down and provide policy continuity.
- Monday sees the closely followed German IFO survey. The week also sees GDP data from the U.S. and U.K. A major highlight will be the Fed decision on Wednesday. U.S. sentiment surveys are always closely watched.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar. and the Forex Forum for key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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