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Monday January 27, 2014 - 03:27:32 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 27-Jan-2014 -0326 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

EQUITIES
Equities worldwide have tumbled big on weak Chinese PMI (49.6, down from 50.5) and news of the Argentine Peso devaluation.

The Dow (15879.11,-1.96%) is close to the major support zone of 15500-700 below which we may see the fall extend to 14700-800.

The Nikkei (15009.04,-2.49%) finished the second bout of a 1000 points fall in the last 5 weeks to signal the end of the bull market for now. Below 14700-800, it may target 13700 and 13200.

Shanghai (2038.92, -0.75%) is among the better performers in this turmoil as it has already been in a major bear market for while now and has been beaten a lot already much before the other markets came under bear grip. That said, it needs to rise past 2150 to break the longer term downtrend it is trapped in.

The Dax (9392.02, -2.48%) joined the global rout to test the major support zone of 9300-9350 below which the fall is expected to extend to 9000 or even 8700.

The Nifty (6266.75, -1.24%) may open sharply lower matching steps with the global weakness. The repeated failure to break above 6345-60 is resulting now in a drop to the lower end of the broader range at 6130-40. All the rallies may face selling pressure now and below 6130-40, we may expect to see 5970 and 5920.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1274.796) continues its upward rally targeting 1280-1300 in the near term. A break above 1274.42 would take it higher else we may see movements within the 1250-1274.4 regions.

Silver (19.948) came off from resistance near 20.28 and is testing crucial resistance on the 3-day charts. It may consolidate within the 19.5-20.5 regions for some more time and may target support near 18.5-19 if it breaks below 19.5.

Copper (3.2645) came off sharply from resistance near 3.30 and is trading lower. We may see a fall to 3.25-3.20 while below 3.30.

Brent (107.52) has bounced back sharply from just above the support near 106. Currently testing the 200-day MA support, if this holds we may rise towards 108.5. While above 107, a rise towards 109-110 may be expected.

Nymex WTI (96.67) remains ranged coming off a bit from resistance near 97.20. But while above 96, it continues the near term uptrend and may see a rise towards 98.75-99 and even 101-102 in the coming weeks.

CURRENCIES
The Dollar Index (80.43) may attempt going higher as long as it stays above 80 and 79.70. Any major move would be expected only beyond the broader range of 79.70-81.50;

The Euro (1.3687) tested the major trend decider level of 1.3750. It must break above 1.3750 to extend the rally or else the bears may come down heavily once again.

Dollar-Yen (102.40) has reached closer to the major support level of 101.50-101.90, below which the end of the bull market will be signaled.

The Euro-Yen Cross (140.13) may extend the weakness further to 138.60-139 as long as it stays below 141.50.

The Pound (1.6499) is a comparative outperformer and may trade in the range of 1.6350-1.67 for some time more.

The Aussie (0.8704), hit by the weak Chinese PMI, is hanging to the major support of 0.87 precariously and could be in danger of seeing a meltdown towards 0.8500.

Dollar-Rupee (62.66) has a target of 62.97 for the current move which nicely coincides with the resistance of 63-63.10. The uptrend remains intact above 62.45-50 and further momentum may be expected above 62.73.

INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.73%) fell further and is testing immediate support near 1.70%. We may see the 10Yr drop further to test long term support near 2.50%.

The German 10Yr (1.66%) also dropped and fell below the lower boundary of our range of 1.70%-1.85% and is now testing support at 1.65%. The German-US 10Yr spread (-1.07%) dropped and we see it ranged between -1.00% and -1.10%.

The Japan 10Yr (0.61%) has also dropped and trading near the lower boundary of our range of 0.60%-0.70%. We may see it targeting support near 0.50% if the fall continues. The US-Japan 10Yr yield spread (2.11%) has fallen and is testing support at current level. We may see a bounce towards 2.25% if the support holds.

The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.74%) rose sharply. The RBI Policy Meeting is tomorrow. It is expected that the Central bank will keep the Key Interest rates unchanged after the low Inflation figures in December. A further movement of the yields can only be predicted after the Meeting tomorrow.

DATA TODAY
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST GER IFO Business Climate
...Expected 110.20 ...Previous 109.50

9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST GER IFO Business Situations
...Expected 112.20 ...Previous 111.60

9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST GER IFO Business Expectations
...Expected 108.00 ...Previous 107.40

15:00 GMT or 20:30 IST US New Home Sales
...Expected 457 K...Previous 464 K


FRIDAY'S DATA

CA Inflation Y/Y
... Expected 1.30 % ...Previous 0.90 % ...Actual 1.20%

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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