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Weak U.S. New Homes Sales. German IFO better than seen. Busy Tuesday ahead
|Weak U.S. New Homes Sales. German IFO better than seen. Busy Tuesday ahead|
28 January 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: Europe: GB- GDP North America: US- Durable Goods, Case Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, 2-yr Auction, API Energy.
| EURUSD 1.3667
|| U.S. 2.74% +1bp
|| North America: Mixed|
| EURJPY 140.31
|| Bund 1.67% +1bp
|| DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6574
|| GILT 2.79% +2bp
|| FTSE: Lower|
| USDJPY 102.66
|| JGB 0.64% +2bp
|| Far East Close: Lower|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: GB- GDP, US- Durable Goods, Case Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence
- The U.S. released another weak housing number on Monday, New homes sales were unexpectedly soft but were blamed on the severe winter weather in much of the U.S. this year. Markets now have a catchall excuse for any disappointing economic data.
- The German January IFO survey was stronger than expected, and reinforces the view that Germany remains on a solid recovery path. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- Recent sessions have seen a "risk off" trade led by equities. Concern was triggered by a poor (sub-50) reading in the HSBC flash PMI for January. The data reinforced worries about the credit-worthiness of their banking system. Also of concern has been economic and political uncertainties in Argentina and The EUR and gold have been the safe-haven plays.
- Wednesday sees the final FOMC meeting before Ben Bernanke's term as Chairman runs out. We expect no surprises from the meeting. It has been made fairly clear that the central bank will announce another tapering of its asset purchases.
- The central bank will continue to hit home the theme that a tapering does not mean policy is not being tightened. The Fed will continue its ultra-easy short-term interest rate policy well into the future. Janet Yellen will replace Bernanke when he steps down and provide policy continuity.
- This week sees GDP data from the U.S. and U.K. A major highlight will be the Fed decision on Wednesday. U.S. sentiment surveys are always closely watched. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
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AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
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AA 9:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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