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Mixed data.Risk-off trade eases? Fed Decision Wednesday
|Mixed data.Risk-off trade eases? Fed Decision Wednesday|
29 January 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude, Fed Decision
| EURUSD 1.3663
|| U.S. 2.75% +1bp
|| North America: Higher|
| EURJPY 140.50
|| Bund 1.68% +1bp
|| DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6574
|| GILT 2.81% +2bp
|| FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 102.85
|| JGB 0.63% -1bp
|| Far East Close: Lower|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Fed Decision
- U.S. data were mixed with Durable Goods orders weaker than expected and the Conference Board sentiment Survey coming in strong. It is difficult to see how sentiment was positive during the severe winter in much of the lower 48 states. The day saw some further easing of the risk-off trade.
- The U.K. saw solid advance 4Q13 GDP today which were up +2.80% y/y. The GBPUSD eased initially on the data because they were in line with street estimates. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- Wednesday sees the final FOMC meeting before Ben Bernanke's term as Chairman runs out. We expect no surprises from the meeting. It has been made fairly clear that the central bank will announce another tapering of its asset purchases.
- The central bank will continue to hit home the theme that a tapering does not mean policy is not being tightened. The Fed will continue its ultra-easy short-term interest rate policy well into the future. Janet Yellen will replace Bernanke when he steps down and provide policy continuity.
- This week sees GDP data from the U.S.. A major highlight will be the Fed decision on Wednesday. U.S. sentiment surveys are always closely watched. The end of this week sees the start of the Lunar New Year observances. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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