Thursday January 30, 2014 - 03:24:26 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 30-Jan-2014 -0323 GMT
The corrective bounce is over and all the global markets resumed the downtrend after the US Fed stuck to its script of tapering and changed nothing in their plans.
Dow (15738.79, -1.19%) is hitting the major support zone of 15500-700 below which we may see the fall extend to 14700-800. This is the acid test for the long term bulls.
Nikkei (14887.75, -3.23%) has signaled the end of its bull market from late 2011. It has failed to break above 15600-700 and testing the final support of 14700-900, below which it may target 13700 and 13200.
Shanghai (2035.01, -0.17%) is closed for today. It is among the better performers in this turmoil as it has already been in a major bear market for while now and has been beaten a lot already much before the other markets came under bear grip. That said, it needs to rise past 2080-90 and then 2150 to break the longer term downtrend it is trapped in.
Dax (9336.73, -0.75%) is testing the channel containing the entire rally for the last 6 months at the major support zone of 9300-9350 below which the fall is expected to extend to 9000 or even 8700.
Nifty (6120.25, -0.10%) was rejected exactly from our resistance of 6165-80. The lack of strength was mentioned here and the global cues point to our downside targets getting achieved in a day or two. We repeat, from the broader perspective, the targets of 5970-5920 remain open as long as Nifty stays below 6200-50.
Commodities are mixed.
Gold (1263.298) has bounced from trend support and if these levels sustain we may see a rise to 1272-1274. However, we cannot negate a fall to 1250 just now. Overall the near term uptrend persists.
Silver (19.551) remained stable with no major movement. We may see consolidation for some more time within the 19-20 levels before rising to 20.5.
Copper (3.2340) has fallen further targeting support near 3.20 from where it may bounce back to 3.25-3.30 levels. It has been moving downwards since the last week.
Brent (107.87) also rose a bit but is expected to consolidate in the 106-108.5 regions for a few sessions. A break above 108.5 may further take the prices higher towards 110-112.5. Overall the long term trend remains up.
Nymex WTI (97.62) rose as the demand for distillate fuel goes up in the US. We may see a rise to 98.76-99 in the near ter. Bulls continue to dominate the prices which would be ensured after a rise past 97.80.
The Dollar Index (80.6080) remains unchanged in its contracting mode even after the Fed policy announcement and the global EM currency meltdown has no effect on it. We may see more abrupt moves while remaining inside the contracting range. Any major move would be expected only beyond the broader range of 79.70-81.50.
The Euro (1.3651) is reflecting the same indifference to global events as the Dollar index after testing the major trend decider level of 1.3750. It must break above 1.3750 to extend the rally or else the bears may come down heavily once again. Major move is expected only beyond the broader range of 1.3500-1.3750.
Dollar-Yen (102.18) is testing the bull market defining support level of 101.50-101.90 but for the strength to return, it must break above 103.70-90 and 105.
The Euro-Yen Cross (139.48) was rejected sharply from our resistance of 141.50 to reach our target of 139 as the weak structure mentioned before showed its true color. The fall may extend to 138.45 and 137 below that while remaining below 141.50.
The Pound (1.6557) remains in its own world as a comparative outperformer and may trade in the range of 1.6350-1.67 for some time more.
The Aussie (0.8732) has bounced from the major support of 0.87 but must go above 0.89 to make it meaningful. Otherwise, it could be in danger of seeing a meltdown towards 0.8500.
Dollar-Rupee (62.41) may open much higher near 62.75-80 on the back of EM currency meltdown. The bounce from 62.10 has a target of 62.70-85, where the price action has to be watched for further guidance. Supports would come at 62.70 and 62.50 in case of a gap up.
The US 10Yr (2.68%) saw a sharp fall after the Fed continued its taper and cut its monthly bond purchases to $65 Billion from $75Billion. We can now expect the inertest rates to move up. The US 10Yr has fallen below the support at 2.70% and may see a drop to 2.50% before eventually rising to 2.80% and higher.
The German 10Yr (1.74%) rose further. We may now see it going up to 1.75%-1.80%. The German-US 10Yr spread (-0.94%) saw a rise and is testing resistance at current levels. We may see it coming down again towards -1.15% if the resistance holds.
The Japan 10Yr (0.61%) has dropped and is trading in our expected range of 0.60%-0.70%. It can drop further to target support near 0.50%. The US-Japan 10Yr yield spread (2.07%) has also dropped below the support at current levels. We may see a bounce towards 2.25% if it is able to recover from here or else a drop to 1.90%.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.77%) rose marginally yesterday. With the Fed tapering further we can expect the Indian interest rates also to go up. We may see 8.80% or even higher in the next few days.
19:00 GMT or 0:30 IST US FOMC Meeting
...Expected <0.25 % ...Previous < 0.25 %
1:45 GMT or 7:15 IST CN Final Manfng PMI
...Expected 49.60 ...Previous 49.60
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU Biz Climate
...Expected 101 ...Previous 100
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US GDP
...Expected 3.20 % ...Previous 4.10 %
No major data release yesterday.
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