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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: German State CPI data brings deflation concerns back to the front burner

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: German State CPI data brings deflation concerns back to the front burner
Thu, 30 Jan 2014 5:22 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Risk-off sentiment continues to simmer following the continued pace in Fed tapering and weaker Chinese PMI Manufacturing
- (US) FOMC continues taper with Pace reduced to $65Be from $75B prior in an unanimous vote ; likely to continue further tapering in measured steps' Reiterates low rates until jobless rate 'well past' 6.5%'
- New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) left its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.50%; as expected; says of FX rate is "unsustainable" in the long run
- China Jan HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI contracts a bit more than expected (49.5 vs. 49.6e); confirming the first contraction in the manufacturing space in 6 months
- Asian markets no prepare for the Lunar New Year with numerous markets closed in coming session (China, Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan)
- German States Jan CPI all come in negative for MoM readings; bring back deflation concerns for Europe
- German Jan Net Unemployment declined for the second straight month (-28K vs. -5Ke)
- Italy 5-year and 10-year bond auction was solid with the 2019 yield falling to record EMU low; 2024 yield at 3-year low


***Economic Data***
- (ZA) South Africa Dec Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 6.1% v 6.7%e; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 6.2% v 6.7%e
- (DE) Germany Dec ILO Unemployment Rate: 5.1% v 5.1% prior
- (ES) Spain Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.1%e
- (DE) Germany Jan CPI Saxony M/M: -0.4% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4% prior
- (SE) Sweden Jan Consumer Confidence: 103.2 v 106.0e; Manufacturing Confidence: 108.2 v 106.0e; Economic Tendency Survey: 107.8 v 105.8e
- (CH) Swiss Jan KOF Leading Indicator: 1.98 v 2.00e
- (DK) Denmark Dec Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 4.3% v 4.4%e; Gross Unemployment Rate: 5.6% v 5.7%e
- (AT) Austria Dec PPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.0% v -1.2% prior
- (EU) ECB 202M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 210M prior; 38.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 34.7B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Budget Balance (HKD): 55.1B v 15.6B prior
- (SE) Sweden Nov Non-Manual Workers Wages Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.9% prior
- (DE) Germany Jan Unemployment Change: -28K v -5Ke (2nd straight decline); Unemployment Rate: 6.8% v 6.9%e
- (IS) Iceland Jan CPI M/M: -0.7% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.1% v 4.2% prior
- (DE) Germany Jan CPI Brandenburg M/M: -0.4% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.3% prior
- (DE) Germany Jan CPI Hesse M/M: -0.5% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2% prior
- (DE) Germany Jan CPI Bavaria M/M: -0.7% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.2% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.7% v 7.4% prior; M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.7% v 7.4% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.6% v 12.6% prior
- (PL) Poland 2013 Annual GDP Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.5%e
- (UK) Dec Net Consumer Credit: 0.6B v 0.7Be; Net Lending on Dwellings: 1.7B v 1.2Be
- (UK) Dec Mortgage Approvals: 71.6K v 72.9Ke
; highest since Jan 2008
- (UK) Dec M4 Money Supply M/M: -1.4% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.2% v 2.7% prior; M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualized: 3.7% v 5.2%e
- (PT) Portugal Jan Consumer Confidence Index: -36.7 v -40.4 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: -0.8 v -1 prior
- (ZA) South Africa Dec PPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: % v 6.1%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Business Climate Indicator: 0.19 v 0.35e; Consumer Confidence: -11.7 v -11.7e; Industrial Confidence: -3.9 v -2.9e; Economic Confidence: 100.9 v 101.0e; Services Confidence: 2.3 v 0.8e
- (BR) Brazil Jan FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 5.8% v 5.7%e
- (MY) Malaysia Jan M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.1% v 6.7% prior
- (GR) Greece Dec PPI Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.7% prior
- (DE) Germany Jan CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: -0.6% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.8% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 7.0B vs. 5.5-7.0B indicated range in 5-year and 10-year BTP Bonds

- Sold 4.0B v 3.5-4.0B indicated in 2.5% 2019 BTP ; Avg Yield: 2.43% (record EU low) v 2.71% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.49x v 1.28x prior
- Sold 3.0B v 2.0-3.0B indicated in Mar 4.5% 2024 BTP; Avg Yield: 3.81% (lowest since Aug 2010) v 4.11% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.32x v 1.34 x prior
(IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 1.46B vs. 1.5B indicated in 2018 CCTeu (floating Rate bond; Avg Yield: 1.79% v 2.11% prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.4%
, FTSE 100 -0.4% at 6,519, DAX -0.4% at 9,302, CAC-40 -0.5% at 4,138, IBEX-35 -0.1% at 9,882, FTSE MIB +0.2% at 19,368, SMI -0.5% at 8,096, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 1,774]

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets open mostly lower amid weakness in emerging and as dealers digest the Fed's statement , Pick up in European Corporate earnings (Roche below expectations, Shell confirms Q4 results, Infineon rises on better profits, Santander lower following weaker than expected profits, Diageo sales below ests, H&M profits below ests), Weaker than expected China PMI data , Weaker German state CPIs and UK money supply data

By Sector
- Industrials
[Pirelli PC.IT -6% (CEO denied offers for company)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Diageo DGE.UK -4% (H1 sales below ests), Puma PUM.DE -2% (broker commentary), H&M HMB.SE -2% (profits below ests); Givaudan GIVN.CH +6% (FY results above ests), British Sky BSY.UK +1% (H1 profits above ests)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Lonmin LMI.UK -2.5% (wage offer for South African workers); Kazakhmys KAZ.UK (FY copper output rose)]
- Technology [Infineon IFX.DE +5% (Q1 profits above ests), Ericsson ERICB.SE +3% (Q4 margins improved y/y)]
- Energy [OMV OMV.AT -1.5% (Q4 production declined y/y); Shell RDSA.UK +1% (confirmed Q4 results)]
- Health Care [Roche ROG.CH ROG.CH -1% (FY results below ests) Cellectis ALCLS.FR +11% (agreement with Bayer)]
- Financials [Santander SAN.ES -1% (Q4 profit below ests, broad weakness in banking sector)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Industrials -1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.7%, Consumer Cyclical -0.6%; Financials -0.3%; Energy +0.6%, Basic Materials +0.5%, Technology +0.5%, Utilities +0.1%, Telecom +0.3%]

Speakers:
- Turkey Govt official reiterated view that it was NOT considering capital controls

- Spain Fin Min de Guindos commented that the Q4 growth was positive and showed that economic recovery had started
- Italy lower house (Chamber of Deputies) approved election law text
- Denmark's Socialist People's Party to leave government over protests stemming from a planned sale to Goldman of a 19% stake in Danish Oil & Natural Gas (Dong) Energy
- Romania PM Ponta: Unclear if President Basescu will sign IMF letter following the April elections
- Indonesia Trade Min Wirjawan: Sees IDR currency (rupiah) and IDR currency (rupiah) rising following the April elections

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk aversion remained the theme following the continued tapering by the Fed and slowdown in Chinese manufacturing demand. Emerging market currencies remained wobbly. The HUF, TRY, RUB and ZAR currencies continued to decline against the USD and Euro. The Turkish 5-year govt bond yield hit a four month high near 5.32% as EUR/HUF cross broke above the 310 level for two-year highs
- Deflation theme in Europe moved back to the front burner after the German State CPIs for January all registered negative MoM readings. The EUR/USD tested below 1.36 level for 1-week lows despite another improvement in German Unemployment data.

Political/In the Papers:
- (UK) BOE Gov Carney: Reiterates recovery has a way to go before rate hike - comments from an event in Scotland; Sterling has had an important effect on UK inflation
- (UK) Debt Management Office (DMO) raises size of index linked 2068 GILT sale following strong demand; Notes total gilt sales YTD have been 131.2B
- (CN) PBoC did not conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session, as expected (1st halt in 4 consecutive sessions); Injects CNY75B this week v injected CNY375B in prior week
- (JP) Japan investors sold net 357.0B in foreign bonds last week (3rd consecutive week of net sales) vs sold net 226.0B in prior week
- (US) NY Fed announces statement to Revise Terms of Overnight Fixed-Rate Reverse Repurchase Agreement Operational Exercise, the authorization to conduct this exercise was extended one year, through January 30, 2015.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (UR) EU's Ashton to visit Ukraine on Jan 30-31st
- (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni in Sweden
- (DE) Germany Jan CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.3% prior
- (BR) Brazil Dec Central Govt Budget Balance (BRL): No est v 28.8B prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Dec Unemployment Rate: no est v 5.5% prior
- 06:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Jan 24th: No est v $498.8B prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Dec Industrial Production M/M: No est v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.9% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Dec Retail Sales M/M: No est v 3.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.6% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Unemployment Rate: 4.4%e v 4.6% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Dec PPI Manufacturing M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.5% prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 12-month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble speaks in Schwaebisch Hall
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Dec Budget Balance (ZAR): +19.0Be v -28.8B prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Dec Manufacturing Index Y/Y: -0.2%e v -1.1% prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Dec Total Copper Production: No est v 514.9K tons prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Dec Retail Sales Y/Y: 8.0%e v 9.2% prior
- 07:45 (CH) Swiss Fin Min Widmer
- 08:00 (DE) Germany Jan Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.4%e v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.4% prior
- 08:00 (DE) Germany Jan Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.6%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) Q4 Advance GDP Annualized Q/Q: 3.2%e v 4.1% prior; Personal Consumption: 3.7%e v 2.0% prior
- 08:30 (US) Q4 Advance GDP Price Index: 1.2%e v 2.0% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.1%e v 1.4% prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 330Ke v 326K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.00Me v 3.056M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Average Weekly Earnings Y/Y: No est v 1.4% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 10:00 (US) Dec Pending Home Sales M/M: -0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: +1.4%e v -4.0% prior
- 10:00 (BE) Belgium Jan CPI M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.0% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.00-1.50B in Notes
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2015, 2016 and 2018 Bills
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year notes
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-YearNotes

- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Dec Trade Balance: -383Me v 183M prior; Exports: 4.6Be v 4.5B prior; Imports: 4.0Be v 4.3B prior
- 18:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Gov Wheeler
- 18:30 (JP) Japan Dec Jobless Rate: 3.9%e v 4.0% prior
- 18:30 (JP) Japan Dec National CPI Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.5% prior; CPI Ex Fresh Food Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.2% prior; CPI Ex Food, Energy Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.6% prior
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Dec Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: +1.8%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 7.3%e v 4.8% prior

- 19:05 (UK) Jan GfK Consumer Confidence: No est v -13 prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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