Friday August 5, 2005 - 01:07:57 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 5th August 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2605 ... 1.2627 ... 1.2660 ... 1.2696
Support....: 1.2557 ... 1.2523 ... 1.2510 ... 1.2470
Losses could continue to 1.2510-23 but we expect reversal higher soon
Failure at 1.2658 and new lows has dented the bullish view but while we feel that losses can move to 1.2510-23 we continue to feel that a reversal higher is due soon. However, while 1.2552-62 supports early today we do see risk of a move back to the 1.2658-64 area once again. A breach of 1.2600-05 will assist. However, a stronger move higher is only confirmed on a break of 1.2664 which would then cause follow-through to 1.2696-1.2716 which should cap.
A mainly sideways ranging day but one which also saw a minor new low this morning at 1.2562. We should be aware of the risk of a second attempt at 1.2658-64 which would be implied on a break above 1.2605. However, while this caps - or on a direct breach of 1.2552 we would then look for losses to extend down to the 1.2510-23 area which we see as good support. Below here would imply a test of the 1.2467-75 Fibonacci support - and then reversal higher.
Elliott Wave Comments:
5th August 2005
With the 138.2% Wave -c- target at 1.2602 broken we now concentrate on the 161.8% target which rests at 1.2523. We also note an potential internal 61.8% Wave v projection at 1.2510 and thus consider the 1.2510-23 area as important. Indeed, even below here sees good support at 1.2467 which represents the daily 38.2% Wave (iv) retracement target. We feel this sort of area will be enough for the Wave -c- decline.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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