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Friday January 31, 2014 - 11:06:15 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Euro Zone Jan Flash CPI matches a 4-year low raising the probability that ECB could act again EU Market Update: Euro Zone Jan Flash CPI matches a 4-year low raising the probability that ECB could act again
Fri, 31 Jan 2014 5:22 AM EST

- Japan Dec Jobless Rate comes in at lowest since Oct 2008 (3.7% vs. 3.9%e)
- Japan Dec National CPI continues to edge towards target (Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.5%e ; CPI Ex Fresh Food Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.2%e and highest since Oct 2008)
- Lunar New Year holiday in Far East and month end curbs market participation
- Emerging markets manage to establish a sense of calm but remain wobbly
- Italy Dec Prelim Unemployment Rate moves off a revised record level (12.7% v 12.9% prior)
- Euro Zone Jan Flash CPI matches a 4-year low at 0.7% raising the probability that ECB will act again

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Dec Annualized Housing Starts: 1.055M v 1.00Me; Housing Starts Y/Y: 18.0% v 13.6%e; Construction Orders Y/Y: 4.9% v 2.2% prior
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Jan 27th (RUB): 8.12T v 8.22T prior
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales for week ending Jan 25th (y/y): 12.7% v 23.4% prior
- (DE) Germany Dec Retail sales M/M: -2.5% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: -2.4% v +1.9%e
- (FI) Finland Nov Final Trade Balance: 152M v 130M prelim
- (TH) Thailand Dec Current Account Balance: $2.5B v $1.4Be; Trade Account Balance: $2.0B v $1.5B prior; Overall Trade Balance: -$0.3B v -$2.4B prior; Exports Y/Y: +1.8% v -4.0% prior; Imports Y/Y: -9.3% v -9.3% prior
- (FR) France Dec PPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.2%e
- (FR) France Dec Consumer Spending M/M: -0.1% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 0.9%e
- (HU) Hungary Nov Final Trade Balance: 825.0M v 803.5M prior
- (HU) Hungary Dec PPI M/M: +0.5% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.7%e
- (TR) Turkey Dec Trade Balance: -$9.9B v -$7.1Be
- (ES) Spain Jan Preliminary CPI Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.3%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.3%e
- (EU) ECB 479M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 202M prior; 36.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 38.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (IT) Italy Dec Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 12.7% v 12.8%e
- (CZ) Czech Dec M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.7% v 5.3% prior
- (NO) Norway Jan Unemployment Rate: 3.0% v 3.0%e
- (NO) Norway Dec Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e
- (NO) Norway Dec Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 6.0% v 6.1%e
- (NO) Norway Central bank (Norges) Feb Bank Daily FX Purchases: 0M v 0Me
- (ES) Spain Nov Current Account: 0.9B v 1.7B prior
- (UK) Jan Lloyds Business Barometer: 63 v 48 prior; matches record high reading
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Unemployment Rate: 12.0% v 12.1%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Advance CPI Estimate Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.9%e (matches 4-year low); CPI Core Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e

- (IT) Italy Dec PPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -2.1% v -2.3% prior
- (GR) Greece Nov Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: +2.9% v -1.1% prior; Retail sales Value: Y/Y: 0.0% v -2.1% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR140B vs. INR140B indicated in 2019, 2027, 2030 and 2042 bonds

Indices [Stoxx50 -1%,
FTSE 100 -0.7% at 6,494, DAX -1.3% at 9,252, CAC-40 -0.8% at 4,145, IBEX-35 -0.9% at 9,869, FTSE MIB -1% at 19,201, SMI -0.9% at 8,134, S&P 500 Futures -0.7% at 1,769]

- Market Focal Points: European equity markets open mixed, DAX lags amid weaker than expected German retail sales and declines in Deutsche Bank and Fresenius, Luxury retailers gains following financial reports (LVMH and Ferragamo), Large Swedish appliance maker Electrolux declines following earnings, Spanish banks generally report better than expected profits on lower provisions (BBVA and Banco Popular), Telecom BT raises outlook, Stoxx600 on track to lose about 2% in Jan (worst Jan in 4 years), Euro zone headline CPI below ests

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Metro MEO.DE -1.5% (weaker German retail sales); LVMH MC.FR +6% (raised dividend, reported FY13 results), Ferragamo +5% (FY13 Rev +9% y/y, in line), Domino's Pizza UK DOM.UK +3% (CEO change)]
- Industrials [Electrolux ELUXB.SE -5% (Q4 results below ests)]
- Financials [Banco Popular POP.ES (net interest income below ests), Deutsche Bank DBK.DE -2.5% (broker commentary); BBVA BBVA.ES +0.5% (Q4 results above ests)]
- Healthcare [Fresenius SE FRE.DE -3% (broker commentary); Skyepharma SKP.UK +14% (raised outlook)]
- Telecom [BT BT.UK +2.5% (raised FY outlook)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Technology -1.7%, Industrials -1.6%, Energy -1.3%, Financials -1%, Telecom -0.5%, Basic Materials -0.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.4%, ; Utilities +0.8%, Consumer Cyclical +0.4%]

- ECB's Nowotny
(Austria) commented that effects of crisis still dominated the current situation and reiterated ECB view of positive but weak growth seen in 2014. ECB supported strict time frame on debt reduction. Demand side was crucial for future growth; additional demand cannot come from increase current account surplus of the EU
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) First Dep Gov AF Jochnick commented that country needed measures to dampen the growth in debt and reduce risk of consumer debt. Riksbank needed to make sure to boost inflation and the country needed to build more homes
- Hungary Central Bank's Pleschinger commented that it was assessing HUF rate impact on CPI but did not see the need for emergency MPC meeting. Central Bank was under no pressure to make hasty decisions and act on Forint currency. If developments justified action then the central bank would take the appropriate steps if HUF currency did threaten medium term CPI target (**Note: No comment on what level would prompt action)
- Hungary Central Bank gov Matolcsy: In very close alliance with govt
- Russia Dep Econ Min Klepach commented that domestic growth slowdown might extend through Q1. Dec GDP growth was seen at 1.0% vs. 1.8% in Nov with Q1 GDP seen around 1.0%. Q1 Capital outflows seen between $30-35B and 2014 inflation might slow to 5.2%. He expressed concerned that a weak RUB currency (ruble) might lead to interest rate hikes
- Hungary PM Orban commented that its domestic economy was strong and that the FX rate was not related to economy but the situation was related to external factors - radio comments
- Turkey Econ Min Zeybekci: Country to emerge from FX crisis soon
- BOJ Gov Kuroda commented that modest pickup in exports attributed to sluggishness in Far East countries growth (ASEAN). A gradual export recovery to help cut current account deficit

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The JPY was firmer in Asia but still contained within the weekly range. Japan fund managers reduce global stock allocation in Jan slightly. The better Japanese CPI and employment data also put a wrench in calls for more BOJ easing for now.
- The EUR/USD heading for its biggest monthly decline since March and first MoM decline since August against the greenback. The EUR/USD hit fresh 1-week lows at 1.3514 in a relatively quiet session. There was some headwinds after weaker German retail sales data. the Jan flash CPI data reopens the argument for more ECB action to combat deflation concerns. The Core CPI was in line while EMU unemployment improved from recent record low levels to counter any call for ECB rate cut.

Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) Greece next loan tranche may be delayed beyond March; Troika reportedly wants Greek Parliament to formally vote on approval tied to reforms before next loan release
- Japan PM Abe: Tax panel to start mulling corporate tax cut as early as next month

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (UR) EU's Ashton to visit Ukraine on Jan 30-31st
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with Sec State Kerry in Berlin
- (CL) Chile Central Bank Minutes
- 06:00 (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni in Berlin
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announcement on 3-year LTRO repayments vs. 2.5Be
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 3.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills

- 06:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Jan 25th: No est v $292.1B
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Dec Trade Balance (ZAR): 3.0Be v 0.8B prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Dec Unemployment Rate: 5.7%e v 5.7% prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Dec Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -17.6Be v -0.2B prior; Primary Budget Balance: 11.5Be v 29.7B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 34.1%e v 33.9% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Jan Inflation Expectations Survey: 0.8%e v 0.7% prior
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces bonds to be auctioned on Thurs, Feb 6th
- 08:30 (US) Dec Personal Income: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Personal Spending: 0.2%e v 0.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec PCE Deflator M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 0.9% prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) Q4 Employment Cost Index: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov GDP M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.6%e v 2.7% prior
- 09:30 (BE) ECB's Coeure (Belgium)
- 09:45 (US) Jan Chicago Purchasing Manager: 59.0e v 59.1 prior
- 09:55 (US) Jan Final University of Michigan Confidence: 81.0e v 80.4 prelim
- 10:00 (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni in Rome
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Rate unchanged at 3.50%
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 2.490T prior
- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Dec National Unemployment Rate: No est v 8.5% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 9.4%e v 9.3% prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $3.75-4.75B in Notes
- 13:00 (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 3.25%
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Dec Construction Activity M/M: No est v -1.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.9% prior
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Jan Trade Balance: No est v $3.7B prior; Exports Y/Y: No est v 7.1% prior; Imports Y/Y: No est v 3.0% prior
- 20:00 (CN) Chile Jan Manufacturing PMI: 50.5e v 51.0 prior




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