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PMIs due Monday. Focus on ECB and U.S. Employment data
|PMIs due Monday. Focus on ECB and U.S. Employment data|
3 February 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR. Far East: CN- Holiday. AU- PMI Europe: EZ/DE/FR/GB/CH- MFG PMI North America: CA- PMI, US- PMIs, Construction Spending
| EURUSD 1.3486
|| U.S. 2.66% -4bp
|| North America: Lower|
| EURJPY 137.77
|| Bund 1.66% -5bp
|| DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6439
|| GILT 2.71% -4bp
|| FTSE: Lower|
| USDJPY 102.15
|| JGB 0.62% +0bp
|| Far East Close: Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CN- Holiday. AU, EZ, DE, FR, GB. CH, CA, US- MFG PMI
- Thursday of this week features the next ECB meeting. ECB President Draghi faces a major dilemma with disinflationary pressures mounting and economic growth in the Eurozone lagging. We have felt for years that ECB policy has been too tight and pressure on the central bank is mounting for it to bring inflation back HIGHER to meet its target of just under 2.00%. A troubling report on Friday was January flash HICP (CPI) which increased only 0.70% y/y.
- Its about time for the generals at the ECB to stop fighting the last war! The German Bundesbank Friday appears to have given a green light to Quantitative Ease QE by the ECB after German Retail Sales Friday were much weaker than expected. The ECB is under growing pressure to ease policy. The ECB meets next Thursday..See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- As for the U.S.The market reaction to the latest tapering by the Fed seems has been unexpected in that Fed support for the bond markets is being seen as an action that will result in slower growth and thus lower interest rates in the longer term. Accordingly, stock prices bond yields have fallen.
- On Monday, Janet Yellen will be sworn in as Fed Chair in a private ceremony. She may have her hands full as she faces a deflationary economy and slowing economic growth out of the gate.
- Monday sees the usual early month slew of PMI reports. This week also sees policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and European Central Banks.The ECB decision could be a major event. The end of the week sees January employment data from the U.S. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released, see the FOREX FORUM .
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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