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Monday February 3, 2014 - 21:13:20 GMT
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European Manufacturing PMIs mixed. U.S. data falls sharply. ECB & U.S. Jobs data due
|European Manufacturing PMIs mixed. U.S. data falls sharply. ECB & U.S. Jobs data due|
4 February 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR. Far East: CN- Holiday. AU- RBA Decision North America: US- Factory Orders, API data
| EURUSD 1.3531
|| U.S. 2.58% -8bp
|| North America: Lower|
| EURJPY 136.60
|| Bund 1.65% -1bp
|| DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6309
|| GILT 2.72% +1bp
|| FTSE: Lower|
| USDJPY 100.95
|| JGB 0.62% +0bp
|| Far East Close:Lower|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CN- Holiday. CN- Holiday. AU- RBA Decision, US- Factory Orders
- Monday saw the first round of Final manufacturing PMI readings. The news from Europe was mixed, while U.S. data (ISM PMI) were shockingly weak. Janet Yellen was sworn in as Fed Chair in a private ceremony. Substantial work is already cut out for her. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- Thursday features the next ECB meeting. ECB President Draghi faces a major dilemma with disinflationary pressures mounting and economic growth in the Eurozone lagging. ECB policy has been too tight and pressure on the central bank is mounting for it to bring inflation back HIGHER to meet its target of just under 2.00%. A troubling report on Friday was January flash HICP (CPI) which increased only 0.70% y/y. The ECB decision could eclipse January U.S. jobs data.
- The German Bundesbank Friday appears to have given a green light to Quantitative Ease QE by the ECB after German Retail Sales Friday were much weaker than expected. The ECB is under growing pressure to ease policy.
- Wednesday will see the second round of PMIs. (Service Sector)This week also sees policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and European Central Banks.The ECB decision could be a major event. The end of the week sees January employment data from the U.S. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released, see the FOREX FORUM .
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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