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Tuesday February 4, 2014 - 10:41:11 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk aversion theme abated somewhat in the European session; UK PMI Construction data hits fresh 6-year high

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk aversion theme abated somewhat in the European session; UK PMI Construction data hits fresh 6-year high
Tue, 04 Feb 2014 5:22 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Australia Central Bank (RBA) leaves leave Cash Rate Target unchanged at 2.50%, as expected; tweaks language and drops easing bias
- Risk aversion theme abated somewhat in the European session. Dealer rethinking the gloom and noting that stock market retraced 5% of its 30% rally from last year
- UK Jan PMI Construction rebounds to hit a fresh 6-year high


***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Jan Reserve Fund: $87.1B v $87.4B prior; Wellbeing Fund: $87.4B v $88.6B prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan FIPE CPI Monthly: 0.9% v 0.9%e
- (ES) Spain Jan Net Unemployment M/M: +113.1K v +100.0Ke
- (EU) ECB 482M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 255M prior; 55.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 56.1B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 5.7% v 7.2%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 6.1% v 7.3%e
- (IS) Iceland Dec Final Trade Balance (ISK): 4.4B v 4.8B prelim
- (UK) Jan PMI Construction: 64.6 v 61.5e; highest reading since Aug 2007
- (ZA) South Africa Jan SACCI Business Confidence: 90.5 v 91.9 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec PPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.8%e
- (IT) Italy Jan Preliminary CPI NIC incl. tobacco M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.6%e

- (IT) Italy Jan Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -2.1% v -2.1%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.6%e

Fixed Income:
- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK3.76B in 2016 and 2023 Bonds
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF787.9M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.107%
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 812.5M vs. 625M indicated in 26-Week Bills; Avg Yield: 4.00% v 4.10% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.31x v 2.07x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 95.2B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (Prior 115.6B with 168 bods recd)

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.1%
, FTSE 100 -0.1% at 6,460, DAX -0.7% at 9,122, CAC-40 flat at 4,109, IBEX-35 +0.5% at 9,770, FTSE MIB +0.2% at 18,936, SMI flat at 8,102, S&P 500 Futures +0.5% at 1,742]

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets open lower on negative leads from the US and Asia, DAX underperforms amid cautious broker commentary on Volkswagen, UBS gains on better than expected results and higher dividend, Arm holdings declines amid cautious outlook, BP declines after reporting in line profits, Nikkei ends down 4.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng enters correction (Nikkei entered correction yesterday), UK Construction

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Volkswagen VOW3.DE -2% (broker commentary); Trinity Mirror TNI.UK +6% (raised outlook)]
- Industrials [Lanxess LXS.DE +1% (broker commentary)]
- Financials [UBS UBSN.CH +3% (Q4 profits above ests, raised dividend)]
- Telecom [KPN KPN.NL -1.5% (Q4 results below ets)]
- Technology [Arm Holdings ARM.UK -4% (slowing royalty Rev growth, cautious outlook)]
- Energy [Vestas Wind VWS.DK -4% (share offering), BP BP.UK -1% (Q4 results in line); Neste Oil NES1V.FI +8% (Q4 profits above ests)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Basic Materials -1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.9%, Consumer Cyclical -0.7%, Technology -0.5%, Energy -0.4%, Industrials -0.3%, Telecom -0.1%; Financials +0.5%, Utilities +0.3%]

Speakers:
- ECB's Visco
(Italy) commented that the AQR was an opportunity for Italian banking sector
- Spain Deputy Labor Min: Jobless data confirms country nascent recovery
- IMF Romania mission Chief Scharechter stated that it had reached staff level agreement with Romania. Forecasted 2014 GDP growth at 2.2% vs. 2.8% seen in 2013. Forecasted 2014 inflation above 2.5%
- Sweden Trade Min Bjoerling stated that the country's exporters had no currency concerns
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Business Survey saw no clear signs of any rapid recovery is underway and hoped for a cleaner turnaround in summer
- Finland Finance Ministry said to be preparing law of mortgage cap from July 2016 at 90% of asset market value. It added that Finland's housing market showing no signs of overheating
- German DIHK Chamber of Commerce Annual Economic Survey raised its 2014 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% from 1.7% . It noted that its survey of more than 27K companies showed business expectations were the strongest in 2 1/2 years.
- Ukraine lawmakers will not vote on early Parliamentary elections
- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga stated that BOJ was paying close attention to market moves. Uncertainty on US economy and emerging markets were the background of recent moves in stock prices
- Philippines Econ Planning Sec Baliscan stated that Q1 GDP growth was seen faster than the 6.5% registered in Q4. Reconstruction of typhoon-affected areas and a rebound in exports and govt spending to boost economy in Q1

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk aversion theme abated somewhat in the European session following the recent disappointing data releases out of US and China. Following the Nikkei close at a 4-month low some analysts noted that BOJ would likely buy ETFs to keep the 225 Index above 14,000. The USD/JPY moved off its 2-month low of 100.73 to regain a footing above 101.30. The EUR/USD pair also steadied in the session around the 1.3500 area.
- The GBP currency found reprieve in a better PMI Construction data, which hit a six-year high in its Jan reading. GBP/USD retraced its session losses to firm by 0.2% above 1.6330.
- Emerging market currencies also stabilized with ZAR, HUF, INR all slightly firmer in the session.
- RBA abandoned easing bias in its post rate decision statement which sent the AUD currency sharply higher to a 3-week high as participants scrambled in a short covering rally. RBA also dropped the language referring to AUD as "uncomfortably high"

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Draghi reportedly looking for support from Germany in the bond sterilization debate - financial press
-IMF Chief Lagarde: Calls for greater central bank coordination; global financial integration can make crisis more frequent, more damaging
- (US) Fed's Fisher (hawk, FOMC voter): Current decline in the equity markets should not deter the Fed from the taper of asset purchases

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IR) Iran nuclear program hearing
- (EU) EU single resolution mechanism (SSM) incoming chief Nouy
- (RO) Romania Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Interest Rate by25bps to 3.50%
- (RO) Romania Central Bank Gov Isarescu post rate decision press conference
- (BR) Brazil Dec CNI Capacity Utilization: No est v 82.0% prior
- (PL) Poland Finance Ministry announces Feb issuance
- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) to sell 1.21B indicated in 2018 and 2062 bonds
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell up to 2.8B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 4.0B in 1.75% 2019 Gilts
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Months Bills

- 06:00 (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Vikoeren speaks at Oslo Seminar ...
- 06:00 (TR) German Chancellor Merkel with Turkey PM Erdogan
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Industrial Production M/M: -1.7%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.1%e v +0.4% prior
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Dec Annual Inflation: No est v 1.5% prior
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell up to 3.0B in 3-month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset govt bond purchases under SMP program; to drain 175.5B
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:30 (US) Fed's Lacker speaks on the Economy in Winchester, Virginia
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:45 (US) Jan ISM New York: No est v 63.8 prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec Factory Orders: -1.8%e v 1.8% prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec Durable Goods revisions
- 10:00 (US) Feb IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 44.5e v 45.2 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Total Remittances: $1.8Be v $1.7B prior
- 10:00 (DK) Denmark Jan Foreign Reserves (DKK): 482.9Be v 485.9 prior
- 10:30 (UK) BOE's Haldane in Oxford
- 10:30 (UK) DMO to announce size of upcoming Gilts (0.125% I/L 2024 Gilt and 3.75% 2052 Gilt)
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $30B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Evans speaks on Monetary Policy in Detroit
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Jan IMEF Manufacturing Index: 50.9e v 50.3 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: 52.1e v 53.2 prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Jan IMEF Manufacturing Index Unadj: No est v 49.8 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index Unadj: No est v 54.7 prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Jan PPI M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.5% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 Unemployment Rate: 6.0%e v 6.2% prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



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