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Tuesday February 4, 2014 - 11:20:34 GMT
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Risk-off trading extends into markets abroad. Turnaround Tuesday? RBA policy steady
|Risk-off trading extends into markets abroad. Turnaround Tuesday? RBA policy steady|
4 February 2014 11:00 gmt
CALENDAR. US- Factory Orders, API data
| EURUSD 1.3513
|| U.S. 2.61% +3bp
|| North America: Higher|
| EURJPY 136.90
|| Bund 1.64% -1bp
|| DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6335
|| GILT 2.70% -2bp
|| FTSE: Lower|
| USDJPY 101.30
|| JGB 0.61% -1bp
|| Far East Close:Lower|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Factory Orders
- Monday saw another round of risk-off trading after a rough session Monday in the U.S. Risk off trading carried forward into overseas markets, but it looks as though the U.S. might be in for a correction today. A key focus will be the performance of the U.S. 10-yr note which tested below 2.60% late Monday. At the moment it is back testing the 2.60% line..See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released. As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia kepi rates steady.
- Additionally, it sent a balanced policy statement, indicating that rate cuts are not in the pipeline. The AUDUSD has rebounded on the decision The RBA appeared to be backing away from its weak AUD policy on concern that the policy has been a conduit for importing inflation from abroad.
- Thursday features the next ECB meeting. ECB President Draghi faces a major dilemma with disinflationary pressures mounting and economic growth in the Eurozone lagging. ECB policy has been too tight and pressure on the central bank is mounting for it to bring inflation back HIGHER to meet its target of just under 2.00%. A troubling report on Friday was January flash HICP (CPI) which increased only 0.70% y/y. The ECB decision could eclipse January U.S. jobs data.
- The German Bundesbank Friday appears to have given a green light to Quantitative Ease QE by the ECB after German Retail Sales Friday were much weaker than expected. The ECB is under growing pressure to ease policy.
- Wednesday will see the second round of PMIs. (Service Sector)This week also sees policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and European Central Banks.The ECB decision could be a major event. The end of the week sees January employment data from the U.S. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released, see the FOREX FORUM .
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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