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Tuesday February 4, 2014 - 16:41:14 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Equities Bounce Higher After Monday's Slide US Market Update: Equities Bounce Higher After Monday's Slide
Tue, 04 Feb 2014 11:23 AM EST

- Asia equities tanked following slide in US stocks: Nikkei fell 4.2% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 2.9%.
- The global equity slide appeared to bottom out midway through the European session.
- ECB fully sterilized bond purchases for the first time in three weeks.

***Economic Data***
- (BR) Brazil Dec Industrial Production M/M: -4.5% v -1.7%e; Y/Y: -2.3% v -0.1%e
- (EU) OECD Dec Annual Inflation: 1.6% v 1.5% prior
- (RO) Romania Central Bank (NBR) cuts Interest Rate by25bps to 3.50% (record low), as expected
- (IE) Ireland Jan Consumer Confidence: 84.6 v 79.8 prior
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e Feb 1st: w/w +0.3%; y/y: 0.0%
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Feb 1st : +2.7% y/y, Jan MTD: -0.2% m/m; Jan MTD Y/Y: +3.0%
- (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: 207.2B v 207.3B prior
- (US) Jan ISM New York: 64.4 v 63.8 prior
- (US) Dec Factory Orders: -1.5% v -1.8%e
- (US) Feb IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 44.9 v 44.5e
- (MX) Mexico Dec Total Remittances: $1.80B v $1.8Be
- (DK) Denmark Jan Foreign Reserves (DKK): 475.7B v 482.9Be

- The S&P500 sank 2.3% during Monday's session, its biggest decline since last summer. Today US equities are bouncing higher with enthusiasm, trading volumes are running nearly 20% above average. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.45%, the S&P500 is up 0.44% and the Nasdaq is up 0.68%.

- Trading in EUR/USD has been very choppy as the pair meets very strong downside resistance around 1.3500. The big FX story is AUD, which has seen strong gains in the wake of a far less dovish RBA policy statement (the RBA left rates on hold). AUD/USD is up over 150pips above $0.8900 while AUD/JPY has reversed risk-off flows to retake the 90 handle.

- The US debt ceiling issue is very much in play in Washington, DC this week. Treasury Secretary Lew said that the Obama Administration would exhaust extraordinary measures by end of February if Congress does not raise the limit. Last night, the Washington Post wrote that the House Republicans were reviewing their options for negotiating over the debt ceiling. One was a one-year extension in exchange for the approval of the Keystone XL pipeline, while another was a one-year increase in return for the repeal of certain aspects of the Affordable Care Act. Boehner said that the GOP would be looking for more deficit reduction measures.

- Copper futures have plummeted since the beginning of 2014: the March contract dropped from $3.40/lb to just above $3.18/lb as of yesterday, marking the metal's longest sustained decline in approximately 18 years. Copper is poised to move higher today, bouncing a little higher with the rally this morning.

- Luxury handbag maker Michael Kors is among the biggest gainers this morning. Shares of KORS is up 18.6% this morning after the firm blew out earnings and revenue targets and hiked its FY14 view by a large margin. Sales comps were very good. The firm's quarterly profit was up 77% y/y while revenue grew nearly 60% y/y.

- Shares of YUM Brands are up 9.2% this morning after the firm beat earning expectations and reaffirmed its full-year outlook. Revenue missed expectations and sales comps in both the US and China were both negative. With the shares at three-month lows ahead of the quarterly report, traders are fixing on any good news as an excuse to buy.

- JC Penny rose about 3% in the premarket after disclosing that the firm saw positive same-store sales in its fourth quarter, its first positive quarterly comp gain since 2011. Recall that the firm's Q3 SSS were -4.8%, while the year-ago Q4 figure was a dismal -31.7%. The firm's holiday sales comp (Nov and Dec combined) was +3.1%. Analysts and investors are not impressed, and shares of JCP have given up all the gains to trade -4.3% as of writing.

- Investors are looking past Take Two's very good performance in its third quarter and obsessing about its weak Q4 guidance. The firm more than doubled its profits in Q3 and revenue was up 40% y/y, and it also raised its FY14 guidance. However its Q4 outlook widely missed expectations. TTWO is down 11%.

- Microsoft has named Satya Nadella as its new CEO, although the announcement comes after widespread leaks in the press. Redmond also said that Bill Gates will step down as chairman to become a technology advisor. When Steve Ballmer stepped down there were widespread reports that Microsoft needed a fresh face from outside the firm to shake things up, but Nadella has been with the company for 22 years, most recently heading up the cloud computing division.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $30B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Evans speaks on Monetary Policy in Detroit
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Jan IMEF Manufacturing Index: 50.9e v 50.3 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: 52.1e v 53.2 prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Jan IMEF Manufacturing Index Unadj: No est v 49.8 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index Unadj: No est v 54.7 prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Jan PPI M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.5% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 Unemployment Rate: 6.0%e v 6.2% prior




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