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Tuesday February 4, 2014 - 20:40:29 GMT
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Risk-off trading abates into an active period for data. RBA unch
|Risk-off trading abates into an active period for data. RBA unch|
5 February 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR. Far East: CN- Holiday EZ/FR/DE/GB Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Private Jobs Services PMIs, Weekly Crude
| EURUSD 1.3520
|| U.S. 2.62% +4bp
|| North America: Higher|
| EURJPY 137.35
|| Bund 1.65% 0bp
|| DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6326
|| GILT 2.72% 0bp
|| FTSE: Lower|
| USDJPY 101.58
|| JGB 0.62% 0bp
|| Far East Close:Lower|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CN- Holiday, EZ/FR/DE/GB Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales, US- ADP Private Job's- Services PMIs
- Risk-off trading abated Tuesday ahead of the ADP jobs report Wednesday, ECB and BOE policy announcements Thursday and January Employment data on Friday. A key focus has been the performance of the U.S. 10-yr note which tested below 2.60% late Monday. At the moment it is back testing the 2.60% line..See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released. As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia kepi rates steady.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia sent a balanced policy statement, indicating that rate cuts are no longer in the pipeline. The AUDUSD rebounded on the decision The RBA backed away from its weak AUD policy on concern that the policy has been a conduit for importing inflation.
- Thursday sees a major ECB meeting. ECB President Draghi faces a major dilemma with disinflationary pressures mounting and economic growth in the Eurozone lagging. The ECB decision could eclipse January U.S. jobs data. Last week, the German Bundesbank Friday appears to have given a green light to Quantitative Ease QE by the ECB.
- Wednesday will see the second round of PMIs. (Service Sector). This week also sees policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and European Central Banks.The ECB decision could be a major event. The end of the week sees January employment data from the U.S. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released, see the FOREX FORUM .
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
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Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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