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Wednesday February 5, 2014 - 11:04:44 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: European economic data continues to be mixed; focus turns to upcoming central bank decisions on Thursday EU Market Update: European economic data continues to be mixed; focus turns to upcoming central bank decisions on Thursday
Wed, 05 Feb 2014 5:18 AM EST

- Key European central bank decisions and US jobs data in coming session remain the focus
- Emerging Market currencies register a second day of continued calm
- Euro Zone Retail Sales come in negative and worse than expected
- European PMI Services data comes in mixed and highlight the fragile recovery in the region

Highlights: Core Europe:
-France beats expectations (48.9 v 48.6e) but remained in contraction territory for the 3rd month)
-Germany missed expectations (53.1 v 53.5e) confirmed 9th straight month of growth
- Euro Zone missed expectations (51.6 v 51.9e) but confirmed 5th straight month of growth and highest final reading since June 2011
Highlights Peripheral:
-Italy beat expectations: (49.4 v 48.9e but registered its third straight month of contraction
-Spain in line with expectations (54.9 v 55.0e) and registered its third straight month of growth and highest since July 2007

Other Notes:
- New Zealand Q4 Unemployment near 4-year low (6.0% v 6.0%e)
- Japan Dec Labor Cash Earnings at 22-month high (YoY: 0.8% v 0.6%e)
- Taiwan Jan Manufacturing PMI at 33-month high (55.5 v 55.2 prior)

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Jan Services PMI: 50.2 v 53.6 prior; 6th straight month of growth
- (IN) India Jan HSBC/Markit Services PMI: 48.3 v 46.7 prior; 7th straight contraction

- (IE) Ireland Jan Investec Services PMI: 61.5 v 61.8 prior; 18th straight month of expansion
- (CH) Swiss Q4 UBS Real Estate Bubble Index: 1.23 v 1.20 prior
- (FI) Finland Nov GDP Indicator WD: -1.1 v -1.1% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Jan HSBC/Markit PMI Services: 50.3 v 50.5 prior
- (SE) Sweden Jan PMI Services: 55.9 v 57.3e
- (CZ) Czech Dec Retail Sales Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.4%e
- (HU) Hungary Dec Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.8% v 3.9%e
- (EU) ECB 3M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 482M prior; 54.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 55.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (ES) Spain Jan. Services PMI: 54.9 v 55.0e; third straight month of growth and highest since July 2007
- (IT) Italy Jan PMI Services: 49.4 v 48.9e; third straight month of contraction
- (FR) France Jan Final PMI Services: 48.9 v 48.6e; confirms 3rd straight monthly contraction
- (DE) Germany Jan Final PMI Services: 53.1 v 53.6e; confirms 9th straight month of growth
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Final PMI Services: 51.6 v 51.9e (confirms 5th straight month of growth and highest final reading since June 2011); PMI Composite: 52.9 v 53.2e

- (IS) Iceland Jan Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): 7.3B v 4.4B prior
- (UK) Jan PMI Services: 58.3 v 59.0e
- (CY) Cyrus Banks End of Dec Reliance on Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA): 9.55B v 9.77B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Retail Sales M/M: -1.6% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -1.0% v +1.5%e
- (NO) Norway Jan House Prices M/M: -0.1%

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR130B vs. INR130B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.58% vs. $0.0M prior (20th straight week of no allotment)

Indices [ Stoxx50 +0.2%
, FTSE 100 +0.4% at 6,472, DAX flat at 9,128, CAC-40 +0.4% at 4,132, IBEX-35 +0.5% at 9,801, FTSE MIB +0.6% at 19,141, SMI +0.4% at 8,126, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 1, 742]

- Market Focal Points: Equities open mostly lower then rebound, Germany's DAX continues to underperform while Italy's FTSE MIB outperforms, Swatch rises on better than expected net profit, Syngenta lower on weaker than expected results , Mixed Euro Zone Services PMI data, UK Services PMI below expectations, Upcoming US ADP employment data

By Sector
- Financials
[RSA Insurance RSA.UK +4.5% (CEO change), Scor SCR.ES +3% (Jan premium growth 5%)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Swatch UHR.CH +4% (FY profits above ests, raised dividend), Daily Mail DMGT.UK +5% (Q1 sales +6%), ProsiebenSat PSM.DE +1% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [Alfa Laval ALFA.SE +6% (Q4 results above ests), Scania SCVB.SE +6% (speculation related to Volkswagen), Symrise SY1.DE +1% (broker commentary); Sacyr SCYR.ES -5% (concerns related to Panama Canal project), Syngenta SYNN.CH -3% (FY profits below ests)]
- Technology [Melexis MELB.BE +4% (Q4 results above ests); Blinkx BLNX.UK -9% (Muddy Water's said to have short position), Wolfson Microelectronics WLF.UK -9% (cautious outlook)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [ThyssenKrupp TKA.DE -1% (broker commentary)]
- Energy [Aleo Solar AS1.DE -30% (asset sale agreement)]
- Stoxx50 [Consumer Cyclical +0.4%, Energy +0.4%, Technology +0.3%, Telecom +0.2%; Financials -0.4%, Utilities -0.1%, Industrials -0.1%, Basic Materials -0.1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.1%]

- ECB said to be having varying degrees of concern over deflation.
There was no consensus on action and Draghi's position was seen as key. The article suggested some ECB members believed the Jan headline inflation data was impacted by special factors.
- RBA's Edwards commented that the AUD currency fall not necessarily over as inflation risks were not yet alarming. Gradual decline in AUD would be a bonus for the economy, while abrupt decline would be serious for economy. Impact of AUD fall on inflation 'swifter' than expected; 'marked' AUD fall risks more inflation pressures to come
- Poland Fin Min Szczurek: Q4 GDP growth seen at 2.9% y/y
- Turkey Deputy PM Babacan: Central Bank acted after volatility already occurred in emerging markets. He reiterated view that capital controls would be 'suicide' for Turkey and believed in free movement of both people and capital
- IMF local mission rep stated that Turkey's recent interest rate hike was overdone but welcomed. It saw GDP moderating in the mid-term
- Hungary Econ Min Varga: Forint (HUF) has seen volatility but did not plan to amend the budget despite HUF currency volatility

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The European session was quiet which gave dealers time to think about the upcoming ECB rate decision on Thursday. Overall most expected no surprises this week citing that new ECB economic forecasts were not due until the March meeting. Nonetheless the ECB appeared to be in a 'lose-lose' situation this week for the Euro currency if the central bank does either cut or hold policy steady. The EUR/USD was steady at 1.3500 for the bulk of the morning.
- The GBP endured a bit of volatility following its Jan PMI Services data. The GBP/USD initially rose despite the headline miss in the data but the pair quickly reversed its gains to fall to session lows of 1.6264. The city of London was crippled by a 48-hour transit strike that began today.
- The AUD currency paused following yesterday's nearly 200pips rise following RBA policy statement. The 0.90 handle has been a prior verbal intervention level. RBA's Edwards added to that with his comments in the session when he noted that the AUD fall was not necessarily over
- Emerging Market currencies registered a second day of continued calm. The Hungary HUF currency (Forint) led the way with its second day of gains to a multi-week high against the USD and Euro.

Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) Reportedly the Troika and Greece have resolved 2014 fiscal gap issue, Greece expected to require 10-20B in funds in a third bailout package to cover 2014-15 needs
- (UK) Fin MIn Osborne: Recent soft US data could pose a threat to the UK.
- (UK) BoE's Haldane: Spillover from the Fed is dramatic and still continues, turbulence in emerging markets indicates countries have their own policies and are acting without regard to the financial system as a whole
- (US) Fed's Lacker: Would not call moves in equity markets 'turmoil' quite yet; It is up to emerging market nations to conduct their own monetary policy
- (US) Fed's Evans: There is a high hurdle for making adjustments to current QE3 taper; World financial markets should not be surprised by the tapering program
- (US) Treasury announces special measures to help avoid debt limit; suspends state and local Govt securities sales
- (US) Treasury announces special measures to help avoid debt limit; suspends state and local Govt securities sales
- BIS (Bank for International Settlements) thinks Emerging markets are even more vulnerable now to an interest rate shock than they were during the East Asia crisis of 1998 - Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph
- (JP) Japan lower house approves FY13 extra budget for 5.47T - Japanese press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 4.0B in 1.0% 2019 Bobl
- 05:45 (UK) Business Sec Cable in Parliament
- 05:45 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q4 Unemployment Rate: No est v 15.6% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jan Live Register Monthly Change: No est v -3.3K prior; Unemployment Rate: No est v 12.4% prior; Live Register Level: No est v 402.8 prior
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 2.50%
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Dec Economic Activity M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 2.8% prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan Commodity Price Index M/M: No est v 2.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.1% prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 31st: No est v -0.2% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Jan PMI Services: No est v 51.7 prior
- 07:00 (UK) PM Cameron Question Time in House of Commons
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Dec CNI Capacity Utilization: 81.9%e v 82.0% prior
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) Minutes
- 08:15 (US) Jan ADP Employment Change: +185Ke v +238K prior
- 08:15 (ES) Spain Econ Min De Guindos
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Building Permits M/M: +1.5%e v -6.7% prior
- 08:30 (SG) Singapore Jan Purchasing Managers Index: 50.1e v 49.7 prior; Electronics Sector Index: 50.5e v 50.1 prior
- 08:58 (US) Jan Final Markit PMI Services: No est v 56.0 prelim
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Consumer Confidence Index: 90.1e v 89.7 prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Weekly Currency Flows
- 09:30 (US) Treasury quarterly refunding announcement
- 10:00 (US) Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 53.7e v 53.0 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico weekly International Reserves
- 10:00 (US) Fed's Tarullo
- 10:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Gov Belka post rate decision press conference
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.85-1.15B in bonds
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 10-Year Bonds
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks on Economic Outlook in Rochester, NY
- 14:15 (US) Fed to purchase $2.5-3.0B in bonds
- 13:40 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks on Economy in Birmingham, Alabama
- 19:00 (CO) Colombia Jan CPI M/M: 0.6%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 1.9% prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Dec Trade Balance: -A$200Me v -A$1.2B prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Dec Retail Sales M/M: No est v 0.7% prior




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