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Wednesday February 5, 2014 - 16:35:29 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: ADP Miss Reignites the Sell-Off US Market Update: ADP Miss Reignites the Sell-Off
Wed, 05 Feb 2014 11:20 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (PT) Portugal Q4 Unemployment Rate: 15.3 v 15.6% prior; 3rd straight quarterly decline
- (IE) Ireland Jan Live Register Monthly Change: -2.3K v -3.1K prior; Unemployment Rate: 12.3 v 12.4% prior; Live Register Level: 400.7 v 403.0 prior
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) left its Base Rate unchanged at 2.50%; as expected
- (CL) Chile Dec Economic Activity M/M: 0.8% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.4%e
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 31st: +0.4 v -0.2% prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan PMI Services: 49.6 v 51.7 prior; first contraction in 5 months
- (RU) Russia Jan CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 6.1% v 6.1%e; CPI YTD: 0.6% v 0.6%e
- (RU) Russia Jan CPI Core M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 5.4% v 5.5%e
- (BR) Brazil Dec CNI Capacity Utilization: 81.4% v 81.9%e
- (US) Jan ADP Employment Change: +175K v +185Ke
- (CA) Canada Dec Building Permits M/M: -4.1% v +1.5%e
- (SG) Singapore Jan Purchasing Managers Index: 50.5 v 50.1e; Electronics Sector Index: 52.0 v 50.5e
- (US) Jan Final Markit PMI Services: 57.7 v 56.6 prelim
- (MX) Mexico Jan Consumer Confidence Index: 84.5 v 90.1e
- (US) Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 54.0 v 53.7e
- (US) DOE Crude: +440K v +2Me; Gasoline: +505K v +1Me; Distillate: -2.36M v -2Me

- The downward slide in US equities is back after yesterday's move sideways. As of writing the DJIA is down 0.31%, the S&P500 is down 0.75% and the Nasdaq is down 1.19%.

- The January ADP data missed expectations by a bit, thanks in part to severe winter weather. ADP stated that underlying job growth, abstracting from the weather, remains sturdy, with broad-based gains across industries and company sizes. The consensus view for Friday's non-farm payrolls number is around 180K, midway between the ADP's actual result and analysts' expectations.

- There has been a lot of talk among analysts that the ECB will be forced to cut rates again thanks to ever more ominous disinflation (please don't call it deflation). However, new ECB economic forecasts will not arrive until the March meeting, which may be the excuse Draghi needs to keep policy unchanged. EUR/USD was higher in early NY and tested near an hourly downtrend line at 1.3570 just before the ADP data.

- The January ISM non-manufacturing index of services activity was pretty good, with the slight beat signaling continued expansion and improved conditions. The employment and inventories sub indices were notably improved from December. The ISM indicated that spending continues to hold up, with manufacturing more affected by weather than the non-manufacturing index.

- Consumer names Ralph Lauren, Estee Lauder and Buffalo Wild Wings illustrate the depth of the sell-off this morning. All three had pretty strong quarterly reports, beating EPS estimates. Ralph Lauren hiked its FY14 outlook, while Buffalo WW's sales comps and comp guidance was very good. Nevertheless, BWLD is down 10% in the early going and RL is down 3%. Shares of EL are down 6%, although the company's report was less unambiguously positive, as it featured a big whiff on quarterly guidance. Software name ULTI gave up a 4% gain to sink as low as 6% despite beating expectations and offering good guidance.

- Shares of Corinthian Colleges are down 6% this morning. The firm's earnings were in line, although total new student enrollments fell 14.4% y/y. More ominously, the firm disclosed that the Department of Education denied pending new program applications and mandated that all its units request approval for any new locations and programs. In addition, the company's third-party would halt funding loans for Corinthian students. Competitor DeVry's earnings and revenue met expecations, while new enrollments fell 12%. Shares of DV are in the red, along with most of the other for-profit education names.

- Shares of Glaxo and Merck remain up a few percent a piece this morning as investors seek safe havens. Both firms reported decent quarterly results, meeting consensus expectations. Merck's revenue declined slightly on a y/y basis, and the firm also disclosed that it has entered a collaboration deal with Amgen to jointly develop a new cancer treatment. Glaxo's FY14 guidance predicted modest growth in profits and revenue, suggesting it may be getting past the patent cliff.

- Casino names are getting hit hard on the deceleration seen in Macau January casino revenues. The Chinese gambling enclave saw a 7% gain in revenue, down sharply from the big double-digit gains seen over the last year, for the slowest rate of growth since fall of 2012. Note that revenues are declining in line with the overall GDP decline in China, plus the anti-corruption drive by the new authorities in Beijing.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 10-Year Bonds
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks on Economic Outlook in Rochester, NY
- 14:15 (US) Fed to purchase $2.5-3.0B in bonds
- 13:40 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks on Economy in Birmingham, Alabama
- 19:00 (CO) Colombia Jan CPI M/M: 0.6%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 1.9% prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Dec Trade Balance: -A$200Me v -A$1.2B prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Dec Retail Sales M/M: 0.5%e v 0.7% prior




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