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Friday February 7, 2014 - 10:57:46 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Germany Constitutional Court deflects OMT bond buying decision to EU Court of Justice; German trade components highlight fragility of EU recovery EU Market Update: Germany Constitutional Court deflects OMT bond buying decision to EU Court of Justice; German trade components highlight fragility of EU recovery
Fri, 07 Feb 2014 5:17 AM EST

- RBA Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy raised its inflation, growth forecasts on lower fx rate; inflation to breach 2-3% target band by mid-2014
- China Jan HSBC/Markit Services PMI registers its 24th straight month of expansion but weakest reading since April 2011 (50.7 v 50.9 prior)
- German Trade components highlight concerns over durability of the European economic engine
- German Constitutional Court splits its pending decision; will rule on European Stability Mechanism (ESM) on March 18th but deflects ECB OMT bond buying scheme to EU Court of Justice
- ECB defends its OMT blueprint

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Dec Preliminary Leading Index CI: 112.1 v 111.9e; Coincident Index: 111.7 v 111.5e
- (AU) Australia Jan Foreign Reserves: A$53.3B v A$59.5B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Gross Reserves: $49.4B v $49.5Be; Net Reserves: $44.9B v $45.5B prior
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales for week ending Feb 2nd (y/y): 4.9% v 12.7% prior
- (FI) Finland Dec Preliminary Trade Balance: -570M v +152M prior
- (DE) Germany Dec Current Account Balance: 23.5B v 21.5Be; Trade Balance: 14.2B v 17.3Be; Exports M/M: -0.9% v +0.8%e; Imports M/M: -0.6% v +0.9%e
- (FR) France Dec YTD Budget Balance: -74.9B v -87.0B prior
- (FR) France Dec Trade Balance: -5.2B v -5.1Be
- (ES) Spain Dec Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: 3.5% v -0.1% prior; Industrial Output SA Y/Y: 1.7% v 2.4%e
- (HU) Hungary Dec Preliminary Trade Balance: 289.8M v 310.0Me
- (CH) Swiss Jan Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 437.7B v 435.9Be
- (DK) Denmark Dec Industrial Production M/M: -2.9% v +1.0%e
- (EU) ECB 380M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 360M prior; 42.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 35.0B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss Dec Real Retail Sales Y/Y: % v 4.2% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Dec Industrial Production M/M: +2.6% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 0.4% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 4.9% v 0.7% prior
- (AT) Austria Jan Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.9% v -1.5% prior
- (SE) Sweden Jan Budget Balance (SEK) -26.3B v -96.6B prior
- (SE) Sweden Dec Service Production M/M: -1.5% v +0.4%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v +2.0%e
- (SE) Sweden Dec Industrial Production M/M: -1.0% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.8%e
- (SE) Sweden Dec Industrial Orders M/M: 15.4% v 3.4% prior; Y/Y: 14.7% v -0.6% prior
- (NO) Norway Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.5% v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: -2.2% v -2.3% prior
- (NO) Norway Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.7% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.8% v 2.0%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Jan Foreign Reserves: $312.2B v $311.2B prior
- (SG) Singapore Jan Foreign Reserves: $271.5B v $273.1B prior
- (CZ) Czech Jan International Reserves: $56.2B v $56.2% prior
- (UK) Dec Visible Trade Balance: -7.7B v -9.3Be; Total Trade Balance: -1.0B v -3.0Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -2.2B v -3.1Be
- (UK) Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.3%e
- (UK) Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 2.3%e

- (ID) Indonesia Jan Forex Reserves: $100.7B v $99.4B prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e
- (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) Jan Balance-Sheet Aggregates: ECB funding to Italian banks at 223.7B v 235.9B prior

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.1%
, DAX +0.2% at 9,276, CAC-40 flat at 4,189, IBEX-35 +0.3% at 9,993, FTSE MIB +0.1% at 19,518, SMI +0.4% at 8,249, S&P 500 +0.3% at 1,772]

- Market Focal Points: Markets trade mostly higher as traders assess commentary out of Germany's Constitutional Court , ArcelorMittal gains on better than expected EBITDA, Large oil companies continue to report weaker results (Statoil), Upcoming US payrolls data

By Sector
- Energy
[SBM Offshore SBMO.NL -13% (probe related to sales practices), Statoil STL.NO -0.8% (Q4 profits below ests)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [ArcelorMittal MT.NL +3.5% (Q4 EBITDA above ests), SSAB SSABA.SE -1% (Q4 results below ests)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Air France AF.FR -2% (capital raise speculation), Hugo Boss BOS.DE -1.5% (Q4 results below ests)]
- Industrials [EMS-Chemie EMSN.CH +3% (announced special dividend); Outotec OTE1V.FI -10% (Q4 results below ests), Skanska SKAB.SE -3% (Q4 results below ests)]
- Healthcare [Arseus RCUS.BE +4% (raised dividend by 20%)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Basic Materials +0.6%, Consumer Cyclical +0.2%; Energy -1%, Technology -0.8%, Industrials -0.5%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.4%, Utilities -0.2%, Telecom -0.2%, Financials -0.2%]

- German Constitutional Court stated that it would rule on European Stability Mechanism (ESM) on March 18th but deflected the OMT decision to the EU Court citing that OMT might infringe ban on funding member states.
Germany stated that it saw substantial reason to believe that OMT bond buying scheme exceeds the ECB mandate
- ECB took note of the German Constitutional Court announcement and reiterated OMT fell within ECB's mandate
- ECB's Liikanen (Finland) reiterated its forward guidance stance and saw low interest rates for prolong period. Inflation expectations remained subdued. He hoped Emerging Markets situation calmed down but added that EU markets were stable despite recent volatility in emerging markets
- ECB legal opinion: Concern over Hungary central bank independence noting several recent amendments to its central bank law could result in operational instability
- ECB press conference on draft Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) framework noted that it would have power under SSM to grant and withdraw bank licenses and assess acquisitions of qualifying holdings. ECB's SSM for sector to start on Nov 4th
- Germany Foreign Trade Group stated that it saw a positive outlook for 2014 after a lackluster 2013
- Goldman Sachs economist Pill: ECB likely to act on money market tension at its March policy meeting. Saw liquidity provision via the suspension of SMP sterilization or downward shift in rate corridor as likely measures.
- Romania Econ Min Andrei Gerea said to have resigned (This follows on the heels of Fin Min Chitoiu stepping down yesterday)
- Ukraine Central Bank reiterated its view that currency market strains was seen as temporary (Reminder: The central bank announced limits to Corporate FX purchases (capital controls) citing volatility on Hryvnia currency
- EU official stated that aid package for Ukraine might take time and that talks with EU States and partners were ongoing
- Moody's commented on Australia and saw no threat seen to the country's AAA sovereign rating. It did caution that its economy was not doing as well as it could be and economic consequences of budget cuts needed to be considered
- Indonesia Central Bank (BI) Gov Martowardojo saw inflation remaining high in Feb and March period due to bad weather
- Moody's reiterated its view that debt limit deadline not likely to affect US sovereign rating

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The move in global equity markets over the past 24 hours did little to spur FX price action other than CHF currency unwound some of its safe haven premium
- The Euro initially moved lower after the German Constitutional Court statement which added a fresh shadow of doubt over the OMT bond buying program. Dealers debated whether this was actually a good thing for the OMT program given Bundesbank criticism of the planned operation. The German Trade components highlight concerns over durability of the European economic engine as its exports registered their forst MoM decline since July while imports fell for the second straight month.

Political/In the Papers:
- (US) Fed's Rosengren (dovish dissenter in 2013, FOMC non-voter in 2014): unemployment remains too high; must be patient in reducing stimulus
- (NL) Study by Nexit suggests the Netherlands would be better off without the euro - UK Press
- S&P stated that it did not expect any changes in sovereign ratings resulting from ECB's asset quality review (AQR)
- Ukraine Central Bank strengthen rules on FX purchases by foreign corporations (aka capital controls) citing that UAH currency intervention had a limited impact

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel's CDU Leadership Meeting in Franfurt
- (CY) Cyprus President Anastasiades meets Greece PM Samaras in Athens
- (RU) Russia Jan Official Reserve Assets: $495.0Be v $509.6B prior
- 05:45 (LX) ECB's Mersche (Luxemboug) in Dublin
- 06:00 (EU) ECB's Provopolous (Greece) speaks in London
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.3%e v 1.9% prior; Y/Y: 3.5%e v 3.5% prior
-6:00 (IE) Ireland Dec Industrial Production M/M: No est v 11.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 12.8% prior
- 06:00 (CL) Chile Jan CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 3.0% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.5% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Jan IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.6%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 5.7%e v 5.9% prior
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announcement on 3-year LTRO repayments vs. 1.0Be
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 3.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Jan Trade Balance: -$193.5Me v +$146.0M prior; Total Exports: No est v $6.4B prior Total Imports: No est v $6.2B prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Jan Copper Exports: No est v $3.5B prior
- 06:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Feb 2nd: No est v $292.2B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (IN) India Q1 Advance GDP estimate: 4.7%e v 4.5% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jan Official Reserves: No est v $106.2B prior
- 08:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at CDU Leadership meeting
- 08:30 (US) Jan Change in Non-farm Payrolls: +180Ke v +74Kprior; Change in Private Payrolls: +185Ke v +87K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +10Ke v +9K prior
- 08:30 (US) Jan Unemployment Rate: 6.7%e v 6.7% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 13.1% prior; Change in Household Employment: No est v +143 prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: No est v 62.8% prior
- 08:30 (US) Jan Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.8% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.4e v 34.4 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jan Net Change in Employment: +20.0Ke v -45.9Kprior; Unemployment Rate: 7.1%e v 7.2% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v -60K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v +14.2 prior; Participation Rate: 66.4%e v 66.4% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jan CPI M/M: 1.0%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 4.6%e v 4.0% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.9%e v 0.3% prior
- 10:00 (UK) Jan NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.7% prior
- 10:00 (BE) Belgium Jan CPI M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.0% prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.7-0.75B in notes
- 15:00 (US) Dec Consumer Credit: $12.0Be v $12.3B prior
- 15:25 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Dep Gov Macklem speaks in Montreal
- 2014 Winter Olympics begin in Sochi, Russia





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