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Friday August 5, 2005 - 11:22:04 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD holding on to gains ahead of payrolls.

• Even a strong number today may not be sufficient to head off further USD weakness in the short-term.

• More strong German data.

• Canadian employment also features today.

Market Outlook

Overnight, EUR-USD has managed to hold on to most ofyesterday’s gains, with 1.2350 now acting as support ahead oft today’s US data. The market remains apprehensive about the risk of a strong payroll number, although this may not be enough to snuff out the negative USD bias that has developed this week. An upside bias will remain on EUR-USD while above 1.2250 and a test of 1.2450-1.2500 is favoured today. The USD should weaken against other currencies, perhaps with the exception of the JPY, which is being held back by uncertainty about the Japanese political backdrop.

GBP remains subdued following yesterday’s 25bp rate cut. There were no signals in the statement about what will happen to rates in the months ahead, with the comment about the downside risks to consumer spending being offset to a certain degree by their observation about stronger equities and a weaker GBP eventually boosting activity. Much will now depend upon the data and the market will be looking for more clues about immediate policy direction in next week’s Inflation Report. However, with rate cut risk having been lifted from GBP for the time being, some independent strength may develop over the next couple of weeks. UK manufacturing output and HBOS house price data this morning was uneventful.

German industrial output data was stronger than expected, the latest piece of evidence suggesting a dramatic change in fortune for the German economy. Given the volatility of this data one would ideally want to see this being sustained for another month, although such developments can only boost the EUR’s short-term prospects.

Day Ahead
Canada – labour market data will appear in Canada and this will need to be weak to offset expectations about a BoC rate hike at their September 7 meeting. Indeed, if more strength is seen the market may have increased confidence about the likelihood of the BoC signalling more rate hikes during the remainder of this year. Last month, total employment rose 14.2k, but this masked an impressive 52.2k rise in full-time jobs.

US – last month’s non-farm payroll number (+146k) was weaker than the +200k the market had expected, although there were upward revisions to previous numbers and the report was not weak enough to really undermine Fed rate hike expectations. With other indicators of output and spending showing some renewed strength it will be difficult for the employment report to knock the recovery-consensus off course. Furthermore, the labour market is a lagging indicator so recent strength in output may signal better employment conditions later this year. However, with this particular avenue of support for the USD having faded this week, even a strong report may not be sufficient to offset the USD negative signals emanating from recent price action.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA Employment (Jul) 07.00 +20k
CA Unemployment rate (Jul) 07.00 6.7%
US Non-farm payrolls (Jul) 08.30 +180k
US Unemployment rate (Jul) 08.30 5.0%
US Average workweek (Jul) 08.30 33.7
US Hourly earnings (Jul) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
CA PMI (Jul, nsa) 10.00 59.0
US Consumer credit (Jun) 15.00 +$5.8bn

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Overall PCE (Jun) y/y -0.1% -2.0% last
GB HBOS house prices (Jul) m/m +0.2% +0.2% last
NO Retail sales (Jun) m/m +1.1% -2.5% last
NO Unemployment rate (May, sa) 4.7% 4.7%R last
NO Manu output (Jun) m/m +0.9% -0.5%
GB Ind prod (Jun) m/m 0.0% -0.1%
GB Manu output (Jun) m/m +0.2% +0.1%
DE Ind prod (Jun) m/m +1.4% +0.3%
* Consensus unless stated
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06
2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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