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Sunday February 9, 2014 - 18:41:41 GMT
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New Fed Chair Yellen testifies to Congress twice this week
|New Fed Chair Yellen testifies to Congress twice this week|
10 February 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: JP- Tertiary Activity Index Europe: No Major Data.North America: No Major Data
| EURUSD 1.3627
|| U.S. 2.67% -3bp
|| North America: Higher|
| EURJPY 139.43
|| Bund 1.66% -4bp
|| DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6409
|| GILT 2.71% -4bp
|| FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 102.32
|| JGB 0.62% +1bp
|| Far East Close:Higher|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- Tertiary Activity Index
- The focus this week is on the semi-annual testimony of new Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Tuesday and Thursday to the House and Senate, respectively, on the economy. We expect the Fed not to continue the tapering of its Asset Purchase Program because most Governors feel it has outlived its usefulness.
- On the other hand, its ultra-easy short term monetary policy is expected to remain in place for the foreseeable future. Thus we are expecting no surprises from Yellen before Congress. a much weaker than expected employment report for January has cemented its easy policy.
- ECB President Mario Draghi surprised the markets last Thursday when he said that price declines in the Eurozone are likely only temporary and that the ECB does not have to respond to them immediately. He also acknowledged a weak holiday period but indicated the economy is improving. In other words, his signal was that a policy easing is not being considered. On balance, a steady policy posture should be EUR positive, unless the markets start to worry that this will cause the economy to slow further. So the powers that be at the ECB are rolling the dice.
- This week sees a relatively light calendar. It features semi- annual testimony by Fed Chair Yellen on Tuesday and Thursday on Fed policy and the economy. On Wednesday, the Bank of England will release its quarterly Inflation report. Thursday sees the latest key employment data from Australia. later that session, the U.S. announces its Retail Sales data. Friday well be an active session with Chinese CPI and EZ GDP data due early. Later the U.S. releases import prices, Industrial production, and the latest University of Michigan Survey ahead of an early pre-holiday close. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released, see the FOREX FORUM .
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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