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Monday February 10, 2014 - 11:32:29 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Quiet start to trading week

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Quiet start to trading week
Mon, 10 Feb 2014 5:18 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Japan Dec Current Account registers its largest deficit on record (-638.6B vs. -685.4Be); the overall 2013 surplus was the smallest on record.
- Japan Consumer Confidence back below pre-Abe level; lowest since Dec 2012
- Markets questioning the continued pace of Fed tapering, especially ahead of Janet Yellen's testimony this week
- Italy Non-performing loans continue to rise
- France Dec production data disappoints
- Norway inflation data comes in hotter than expected


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Jan Consumer Confidence Index: 40.5 v 41.3 prior; lowest since Dec 2012

- (JP) Japan Jan Eco Watchers Current Survey: 54.7 v 55.5e; Outlook Survey: 49.0 v 54.7 prior
- (CH) Swiss Jan Unemployment Rate: 3.5% v 3.5%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 3.2% v 3.2%e
- (FI) Finland Dec Industrial Production M/M: -2.2% v +0.9% prior; Y/Y: -5.2% v -0.7% prior
- (FR) Bank of France Jan Business Sentiment: 99 v 101e
- (FR) France Dec Industrial Production M/M: -0.3% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 1.0%e
- (FR) France Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.0% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.7%e

- (TW) Taiwan Jan Trade Balance: $3.0B v $1.9Be; Exports Y/Y: -5.3% v -0.5%e; Imports Y/Y:-15.2% v -7.9%e
- (DK) Denmark Dec Current Account Balance (DKK): 9.4B v 11.4B prior; Trade Balance (ex-shipping): 5.5B v 5.9B prior
- (DK) Denmark Jan CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e
- (DK) Denmark Jan CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.4% prior
- (CZ) Czech Jan Unemployment Rate: 8.6% v 8.5%e
- (TR) Turkey Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v 2.9% prior; Y/Y: 7.1% v 4.9%e
- (EU) ECB 548M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 380M prior; 47.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 42.5B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (IT) Italy Dec Industrial Production M/M: -0.9% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 4.7%e; Industrial Production WDA Y/y: -0.7% v +0.9%e
- (NO) Norway Jan CPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.0%e

- (NO) Norway Jan CPI Underlying M/M: -0.1% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.0%e
- (NO) Norway Jan PPI (including Oil) M/M: 0.4% v 1.6% prior; Y/Y: 5.3% v 4.8% prior
- (UK) Jan Lloyds Employment Confidence: -2 v -12 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Sentix Investor Confidence: 13.3 v 10.1e
- (IT) Italy Dec bank bad loans +24.6% y/y - Bank of Italy
- (GR) Greece Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: +0.5% v -5.4% prior; first increase in six months

Fixed Income:
- None-seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.3%
, FTSE 100 +0.2% at 6,583, DAX +0.4% at 9, 340, CAC-40 +0.5% at 4,247, IBEX-35 -0.4% at 10,029, FTSE MIB flat at 19,693, SMI +0.3% at 8,339, S&P 500 Futures -0.2% at 1,789]

- Market Focal Points: Equities see slight gains at the open following mostly positive leads out of Asia, Peripheral indices underperforms, Fed Chair Yellen's testimony for Tuesday and Thursday

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[L'Oreal OR.FR +4% (speculation related to Nestle's stake); Latchways LTC.UK -11% (profit warning)]
- Technology [Nokia NOK1V.FI +3% (licensing agreement with HTC)]
- Utilities [Centrica CNA.UK -2.5% (regulatory concerns related to British Gas unit)]
- Industrials [Marie Tecnimont MT.IT +5% (contract award)]
- Healthcare [Addex ADDN.CH -25% (data presentation)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Consumer Non-Cyclical +1.4%, Basic Materials +0.7%, Technology +0.3%, Financials +0.1%, Consumer Cyclical flat; Telecom -0.4%, Energy -0.2%, Utilities -0.1%, Industrials -0.1%]

Speakers:
- Portugal Vice PM Portas
stated that its bailout program to end on May 17th. Portugal's 2014 GDP growth could be above 0.8%
- German draft document showed that the govt would raise 2014 GDP growth forecast to 1.75% from 1.70% prior with Domestic demand bumped up to at +2.1% vs. +1.9% prior forecast and export Growth seen at +4.1% vs. +3.8% prior forecast
- Finland opposition party files no-confidence vote against govt over municipal policy (**Note: Govt has survived 16 such votes since Jun 2011)
- Sweden Fin Min Borg stated that he saw a challenging domestic environment for the next two years (2014-15 period)
- Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) might sell 10-year bonds on We, Feb 11th
- Belgium Debt Agency might cancel its planned Feb 17th OLO bond auction and announce an issuance via syndicate instead
- Slovenia to sell USD-denominated 5-year and 10-year bonds
- Japan PM Abe commented that higher income for workers was needed to achieve a virtuous recovery circle
- Ex-PBOC Vice Gov Wu Xiaoling commented that China needed default for a healthy financial market
- UN Nuclear Agency (IAEA): Making progress with Iran but many issues remain

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX markets began the trading week holding onto narrow ranges for the most part. The yen currency remained barometer of broad risk appetite while the EUR/USD pair hovered near Friday's highs throughout the session.
- The BoE's Quarterly Inflation Report, due Wednesday, seen as the highlight for GBP, given the likelihood that the new guidance framework would be announced.

Political/In the Papers:
- France Industry Min Montebourg: Political battle for lower Euro needed - Les Echos
- (EU) ECB Board discussed proposal of planned publication of minutes - German press
- ECB's Visco (Italy): Supports the moves by Italian banks to segregate their non-performing loans ahead of the ECB stress tests - financial press
-(UK) Financial press widely speculating the BOE will ditch its forward guidance in its current form as part of its inflation report on Wednesday with unemployment rate tracking down to its threshold level
-(CN) PBoC Quarterly Monetary Policy Report pledges continued "stable monetary policy" in 2014; Aims to contain lending risks and warns economy yet to find a stable base for growth - press
- (JP) Former Health Min Masuzoe wins Tokyo gubernatorial election, as expected. Victory pushes aside attempts to turn the election into a referendum on nuclear policy

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU Foreign Ministers hold Meeting in Brussels
- (PE) Peru Dec Trade Balance: No est v -$197M prior
- (GR) Greece Jan CPI Y/Y: No est v -1.7% prior
- 05:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 2.0B in 6-month BuBills
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Dec Trade Balance: No est v -593M prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:15 (CA) Canada Jan Housing Starts: 185.0Ke v 187.5K prior (revised from 189.7K)
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 7.8B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Gross Fixed Investment: -5.5%e v -5.6% prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.25%
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 09:30 (MX) Mexico Jan Vehicle Production: No est v 164.2K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 119.4K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 161.2K prior
- 12:00 (US) USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) crop report
- 12:50 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOS) Depy Gov Murray speaks in Sudbury
- 15:00 (CA) Canada Min Fast speaks in Montreal
- 19:01 (UK) Jan BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y: No est v 0.4% prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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