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Tuesday February 11, 2014 - 03:29:23 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 11-Feb-2014 -0328 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

EQUITIES
Dow (15801.79, +0.05%) has continued its rally but the downtrend may resume anytime till 15950-16100 is not decisively crossed. It has shown the first sign of losing momentum since the 2009 bottom and opens the door towards 14700-900 initially with short rallies interrupting the fall.

Nikkei (14718.34, +1.77%) is closed today on account of National Founding Day. Despite a bounce from our support of 14000 now, it may face selling pressure any time till 14850-15100 as it remains in a bear market. Below 14000, our targets of 13700 and 13200 may be achieved quickly.

Shanghai (2089.87, +0.18%) has broken above the initial resistance of 2060-80 and now it may rally to 2120-30 above which the longer term downtrend could be reversed. Bears may attempt to push it down from 2120-30.

Dax (9289.86, -0.13%) is stalling near our resistance of 9300-80 and the medium term downtrend remains unchanged. The maximum upside looks capped to 9500-50 at best.

Nifty (6053.45, -0.16%) is rising but the much labored rally doesn't inspire much confidence for the bulls yet. The price action near 6100-10 is to be seen to gauge the actual strength, which isn't much really. A failure to sustain above either 6080 or 6100-10 would bring the weakness back. We do not see the current rally going above 6150-90 at this moment.

COMMODITIES
Commodities are all rallying up and remains in a near term uptrend.

Gold (1284.94) rose above 1274 as demand boosted up in China stretching its rally towards resistance near 1295-1300. If this holds, we may see some downward correction else a break above 1300-1325 may take it higher towards 1400. Overall it is in an uptrend since Decí13

Silver (20.241) is on its way rising towards crucial resistance near 20.5 as the support near 19.83 holds well. Need to watch out if it is able to break above this level and rise further towards 21-21.5.

Copper (3.2190) came off from 3.25 but is testing support on the weekly charts. It may be ranged below 3.25 for some time before resuming its upward movement.

Brent (108.78) came off sharply from crucial resistance near 109.80 in line with our expectation. We may now see movements within 108.015-109.80 for a few sessions before resuming a rise towards 110 while the long term up trend remains.

Nymex WTI (100.13) is trading high and may target 100.75-101.8 levels. A break above 101.8 would take prices higher to 102-104 in the longer term. It is in an overall uptrend since Mid-Janí14.

CURRENCIES
The Dollar Index (80.5540) has not been able to break the higher end of the 3 month long range of 79.70-81.50 remaining stuck inside the broader range. A successful break above 81.50 may take it sharply to 81.85-90 and then 82.50-60. Below 80.35-40, it may test 80.15 on the downside, after which testing the major support of 79.60-70 is possible.

The Euro (1.3667) is trading inside a downward channel with decreasing bearish momentum. It must break above 1.3660-90 to reverse to an uptrend which may come immediately or after another dip this week. The medium term uptrend may be fully established on a break above 1.3750.

Dollar-Yen (102.16) bounce is facing rejection 102.50-103.50 and we may still see a journey towards 98 in the coming days.

The Euro-Yen Cross (139.62) has achieved our initial target of 139.60-70 and may extend it to 140.35-40 now where it may acquire more strength to attempt a rally towards 142. It has bounced from a major monthly trendline support at 136.20 to break above 138 to negate any immediate fall.

Pound (1.6417) has to break above the immediate resistance of 1.6440-80 to reach 1.6475-1.6510 now where the price action will determine the next course of action in the short term. A failure to break above 1.6440-80 may invite the bears.

The Aussie (0.8998) is struggling near the resistance zone of 0.90-0.91 after bouncing back sharply from our support zone of 0.8680-0.87. A bigger rally will be signaled on a break above 0.90-0.91. A failure to break above 0.90-0.91 may bring back the weakness.

Dollar-Rupee (62.43) may open flat to negative near the support of 62.25-30 today. It has created a good base at 62-62.10 levels and holding that, we may expect a rise towards 62.65-85 in the coming sessions.

INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.67%) dropped after the NFP data came out lower than expected. All the charts suggest that the yields may see a rise as seen by the rise in the 10Yr-5Yr yield differential (1.21%) and the 30Yr-10Yr yield differential (0.99%). We may see the 10Yr go up to 3.00% if it is able to move past the resistance near 2.75%, as seen on the weekly charts.

The German 10Yr (1.66%) dropped after seeing a slight bounce on Thursday. Trading near the support zone we can expect the yield to target 1.75%. The German-US 101Yr differential (-1.01%) is up and is now ranged between -0.90% to -1.10%. The UK 10Yr (2.71%) also saw a drop but it can target 2.80% if it is able to rise past 2.75%.

The Japan 10Yr (0.60%) is stable and has not seen any major movement beyond the 0.60% - 0.62% range for the last two weeks. We may see a drop to the support near 0.50% if it is unable to move past 0.65%.

The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.73%) remained stable. It is ranged between 8.65%-8.85% for now and is expected to remain in that range for the next few days.

DATA TODAY
6:30 GMT or 12:00 IST IN Trade bal
... Previous -10.14 $ Bln

DATA YESTERDAY
No major data release yesterday.

 

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15:30 US- EIA Crude
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