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Tuesday February 11, 2014 - 11:05:46 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Markets await maiden speech by new Fed chair Yellen EU Market Update: Markets await maiden speech by new Fed chair Yellen
Tue, 11 Feb 2014 5:22 AM EST

- Australia Jan Business Conditions registers a three-year high with confidence at a 1-year high; AUD currency regains foothold above the 0.90 level
- Kazakhstan Central Bank devalues its tenge currency by 20%
- Markets await first public remarks from new Fed chief Yellen in her testimony to Congress; expect questions on the pace of stimulus reduction as well as exit measures

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Jan Trade Balance: -$9.9B v -$10.1B prior
; Exports Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.5% prior; Imports Y/Y: -18.3% v -15.3% prior
- (SE) Sweden Jan PES Unemployment Rate: 4.6% v 4.7%e
- (EU) ECB 350M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 548M prior; 44.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 47.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (ZA) South Africa Q4Unemployment Rate : 24.1% v 24.9%e
- (BR) Brazil Feb Preliminary IGP-M Inflation: 0.2% v 0.4%e

Fixed Income:
- (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) opened the books to sell Euro-denominated Feb 2024 OT bond via syndicate;
Order book over 4.5B with guidance revised to +320-325bps over mid-swaps
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold 2.3B vs. 2.0-3.0B indicated range in 1.25% 2019 DSL Bonds; Avg Yield: 0.907%% v 1.215% prior
- (NO) Norway sold NOK3.0B in 2019 Bonds; Yield: 2.15%
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 1.3B vs. 1.0B indicated in 13-Week Bills; Avg Yield: 3.60% v 3.75% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.38x v 2.05x prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF814.8M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.091% v -0.107% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 93.3B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.25% vs. 100.0Be
- (EU) ECB allotted 6.5B in 1-month Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.25% vs. 7.1B prior

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.9%
, FTSE 100 +0.8% at 6,646, DAX +1.1% at 9,388, CAC-40 +0.8% at 4,269, IBEX-35 +0.7% at 10,051, FTSE MIB +0.4% at 19,770, SMI +0.3% at 8,349, S&P 500 Futures +0.5% at 1,803]

- Market Focal Points: Markets open higher ahead of comments from Fed chair Yellen, Nestle confirms plan to lower stake in L'Oreal, TomTom declines on outlook, Barclays trades lower after reporting Q4 loss at investment bank unit, Kazakhmys trades sharply higher following move by Kazakhstan to devalue, Automakers supported by broker commentary

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Lagardere MMB.FR +4% (raised profit forecast), Peugeot UG.FR +2% (broker commentary),Daimler DAI.DE +1.5% (broker commentary), BMW BMW.DE +1% (broker commentary); TomTom TOM2.NL -11% (guided below), Metro MEO.DE -3% (Q1 profits in line), L'Oreal -1% (confirmed buyback)
- Financials [Barclays BARC.UK -1.5% (Q4 results)]
- Industrials [Michelin ML.FR +1.5% (FY adj sales above ests), Airbus AIR.FR +1.5% (orders at Singapore Air Show)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Kazakhmys KAZ.UK +20% (devaluation by Kazakhstan)]
- Technology [Alcatel-Lucent ALU.FR -2% (broker commentary)]
Stoxx50 Sectors [Technology +1.2%, Industrials +1.2%, Consumer Cyclical +0.9%, Basic Materials +0.8%, Energy +0.8%, Utilities +0.7%, Financials +0.7%, Telecom +0.5%, Consumer Cyclical +0.1%]

- Spain Fin Min de Guindos stated that the govt would likely raise its GDP growth forecast at its Apr review
(**Note current seen at +1.0% for 2014): To pass law to promote non-bank financing for SMEs. Spain's deficit was 'under control', but regions' missed deficit goal; local government's surplus offset slippage at the regions; final deficit data for 2013 were not yet available
- German Fin Min Schaeuble reiterated the view of no danger of deflation in Europe; He noted that OMT bond buying scheme had given some confidence to Europe but was not the only reason for the region's rebound
- France Public Audit Office stated that it saw real risk that public deficit overshot target of 4.1% of GDP for 2013
- Russia Dep Econ Min Klepach stated that its 2014 inflation forecast might be revised higher to 5.2-5.3% due to weak RUB currency (ruble)
- German Economic advisor Schmidt reiterates that further ECB rate cuts would not have any direct economic impact. He added that excessive consumer spending could risk pension plan provisions. He expected 2014 German inflation around 1.5%
- Norway Fin Min Jensen: 2014 will be the year of continued growth. He added that some dark clouds remained on horizon as economy faces structural problems as split in economy and competitiveness were concerns
- Italy Parliamentary panel rejected President Napolitano impeachment request by Five Star Party
- Kazakhstan Central Bank: To reduce fx intervention on market to allow devaluation of tenge rate to around 185 per dollar
- Estonia Central Bank: Q4 GDP weaker than expected due to warm weather
- Former ECB member Bini Smaghi stated that he was confident European Court of Justice (ECJ would support OMT program

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Markets are waiting to see if new Fed Chair Yellen would consider a pause in cutting monetary stimulus because of weaker hiring by US employers in the past few months. Overall most analysts believe Yellen was more likely to maintain the Fed's stance regarding the pace of tapering
- The EUR/USD was edging 2-week highs in the upper end of the 1.36 area while USD/JPY was contained in its upper end of the recent range.
- Better Australian data during the Asian session pushed the AUD/UAD back above the 0.90 level to a 1-month high. The current level had previously sparked some verbal intervention in mid-Dec period.
- Spot gold was hovering near 3-month highs above $1,285/oz in the session

Political/In the Papers:
- (DE) German Zew think tank chief Fuest: Forecasts that a LTRO from the ECB is more likely than bond buys, finds the recent court ruling from Germany is a blow to the ECB's OMT program
- UK JAN BRC LFL Sales hit its highest reading since Apr 2011(3.9% vs. 0.8%e)
-(US) Goldman Sachs chief economist Hatzius: Does not expect Fed Chair Yellen to signal pause of taper - financial press
-(US) Follow up: Republican leaders said to be leaning towards extending debt ceiling limit to Mar 2015, but will request bringing back military benefits that were previously cut (as previously theorized by Washington insiders) - financial press; Vote on the debt ceiling could come on Feb 12

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (HU) Hungary Constitutional Court might rule on FX loans
- (RU) Russia Jan YTD Budget Balance (RUB): No est v -310.5B prior
- (CO) Colombia Jan Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 23.2 prior
- (PT) Bank of Portugal data on Banks
- (RU) Russia Dec Trade Balance: $14.2Be v $16.6B prior; Exports: $47.4Be v $46.7B prior; Imports: $33.4Be v $30.2B prior
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 0.75% I/L Apr 2018 BOBL
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell 2.8B in 3-Month and 12-Month Bills
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 1.3B in 0.125% I/L 2024 Gilts
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Months Bills

- 06:00 (FI) ECB's Liikanen (Finland) in UK House of Lords
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.6%e v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 0.3% prior

- 06:00 (IL) Israel Jan Trade Balance: No est v -$1.3B prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Economist Survey
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset govt bond purchases under SMP program; to drain 175.5B
- 08:00 (BE) Belgium Jan CPI M/M: % v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: % v 1.0% prior
- 07:30 (US) Jan NFIB Small Business Optimism: 93.9e v 93.9 prior
- 07:45 (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e Feb 8th
(US) Yellen preview
- 08:55 (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Feb 8th
- 08:50 (CA) Bank of Canada BOC) Dep Gov Lane speaks in Toronto
- 09:00 (EU) EU's Ashton testifies
- 09:00 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks on Economic Outlook in Newark, Delaware
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Industrial Production M/M: 0.2%e v 0,1% prior; Y/Y: +0.6%e v -1.4% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 2.0%e v 0.6% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: No est v 207.2B prior
- 10:00 (US) Fed Chair Yellen testimony on monetary policy
- 10:00 (DE) ECB's Weidmann (Germany) in Karlsruhe
- 10:00 (ES) Spain Fin Min De Guindos
- 10:00 (US) Dec Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.8%e v 1.0% prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec JOLTs Job Openings: 3.98Me v 4.001M prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:30 (UK) DMO to announce size of upcoming 2.25% 2023 Gilt auction
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2019, 2023, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $8B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $30B in 3-Year Notes
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Jan Export Price Index M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.1% prior
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Jan Import Price Index M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.5% prior
- 16:00 (CA) Canada Fin Min Flaherty presents budget
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Weekly Inventories
- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Jan Unemployment Rate: 3.0%e v 3.0% prior
- 20:00 (US) Fed's Lacker speaks on Financial Stability at Stanford
- (CN) China Jan Trade Balance: $23.8Be v $25.6B -prior; Exports Y/Y: 0.6%e v 4.3% prior; Imports Y/Y: 4.0%e v 8.3% prior




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