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Wednesday February 12, 2014 - 16:25:18 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Equities Flat as Indices Reapproach All-Time Highs

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Equities Flat as Indices Reapproach All-Time Highs
Wed, 12 Feb 2014 11:08 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- China January trade balance crushes expectations, imports +10.6% y/y v +2%e, imports +10% v +3%e
- BoE raised UK 2014 GDP forecast to +3.4% from +2.8% prior

***Economic Data***
- (RO) Romania Dec YTD Current Account: -1.5B v -1.3B prior
- (PT) Portugal CPI M/M: -1.4% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.4%e
- (PT) Portugal CPI EU Harmonized M/M: +0.4% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.5%e
- (ZA) South Africa Dec Retail Sales (Constant) M/M: 1.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 2.8%e
- (IN) India Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: -0.6% v -1.2%e
- (IN) India Jan CPI Y/Y: 8.8% v 9.2%e
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Feb 7th: -2.0% v +0.4% prior
- (PL) Poland Dec Current Account Balance: -0.8B v -1.3Be; Trade Balance: -232M v -490Me
- (RU) Russia Jan YTD Budget Balance (RUB): +466.1B v -310.5B prior
- (CA) Canada Jan Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.5% v 3.8% prior; House Price Index: 159.93 v 159.29 prior
- (US) DOE Crude: +3.27M v +2.5Me; Gasoline: -1.85M v -0.5Me; Distillate: -730K v -2e

- Early US equity gains have evaporated in the first hour of trading, with the DJIA down 0.18%, the S&P500 flat and the Nasdaq up 0.17%.

- The House passed a "clean" debt ceiling increase last night and the Senate will vote on the measure in coming days (but not without entertaining yet ineffective Ted Cruz filibusters). The measure hikes the debt limit until March 2015. Interestingly, House Speaker Boehner voted in favor of the legislation.

- The Italian government coalition is looking fragile this week due to a power struggle between Prime Minister Letta and Matteo Renzi, the reformist leader of center-left Democratic party. The latter is apparently pursuing a gambit to shove Letta out of power out of sheer ambition. Letta has dismissed reports that he intended to resign, but seems to be planning to form a new government anyway. Note that this morning, the Italy 10-year government bond yield dropped below 3.68% for lowest level since Feb 2006.

- The Bank of England's quarterly inflation report was a bit more hawkish than expected and maintained the 7.0% unemployment threshold. The report clarified that the BoE's forward guidance including looking at "broader range" of economic indicators without being too specific about the particulars. Sterling firmed thanks to a tone in the report that explained how the BoE expects to tighten monetary policy and not loosen it further. GBP/USD crept above 1.6550. The euro went the other direction after ECB's Coeure commented that negative deposit rates were being "seriously considered." EUR/USD tested 1.3561 during the US session.

- Shares of Intuit are down 3.5% this morning after the firm lowered its second quarter guidance in a release out yesterday evening. Note that the company cited a delay in the date of the IRS e-file opening to year to Jan. 31 related to late tax legislation and the shutdown last fall, and called the move an adjustment not a reduction in expectations.

- Deere topped consensus expectations in its first quarter report, on very modest y/y gains in income and revenue. The firm reiterated it glum forecasts for FY14, with total sales seen down 3% y/y, on flagging global demand. One bright spot was the outlook for construction and forestry, as the rebounding economy in the US and Canada spurs more housing starts.

- Wellcare's earnings fell 12% y/y in its fourth quarter and widely missed expectations, while its initial FY14 guidance was well below consensus estimates. The firm saw good growth in its Medicaid and Medicare membership, however the firm said total expenses jumped 24%, driven by 25% higher medical benefits. WCG is down 7%.

- Owens Corning is among the biggest movers this morning, with shares of OC up 13% after the firm crushed earnings expectations and initiated a quarterly dividend.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (SE) Sweden Fin Min Borg in Stockholm
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 30-Year Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $24B in 10-Year Notes
- 13:15: (MX) Mexico Central Bank Q4 Inflation Report
- 13:30 (FR) ECB's Coeure (France) in Germany
- 14:00 (US) Jan Monthly Budget Statement: -$9.5Be v +$53.2B prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Jan Employment Change: +15.0Ke v -22.6K prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.9%e v 5.8% prior
- 20:00 (KR) Bank of Korea (BoK) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave 7-Day Repo Rate unchanged at 2.50%
- 20:25 (AU) RBA Dep Gov Debelle speaks at Forum in Sydney

 

 

 

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