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Thursday February 13, 2014 - 13:01:33 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Risk aversion simmers in session EU Market Update: Risk aversion simmers in session
Thu, 13 Feb 2014 5:24 AM EST

- Australia Jan Employment Change comes in worse than expected (-3.7K v +15.0Ke) for its 2nd straight monthly decline v -22.6K prior; Unemployment Rate climbs to its highest reading since July 2003 (6.0% v 5.9%e)
- Bank of Korea (BoK) left its 7-Day Repo Rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected (9th consecutive pause in its easing cycling)
- Senate advances and approves 1-year extension of debt limit (to March 15th); Measure now sent to Obama for signing
- China Q4 Non-performing loan ratio of 1.0% hits highest level since June 2012
- ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) 2016 projections suggest ECB won't act soon on deflation

- Fed Chair Yellen testimony in Senate banking committee delayed due to weather
- Reports circulating that Comcast to acquire Time Warner Cable for $159/shr in a $42B deal.

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Jan Final CPI M/M: -0.6% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e

- (DE) Germany Jan Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.7% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
- (ID)) Indonesia Central Bank (BI) leaves Reference Rate unchanged at 7.50%, as expected
- (TR) Turkey Dec Current Account Balance: -$8.3B v -$7.4Be
- (EU) ECB 422M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 100M prior; 23.1B parked in deposit facility vs. 43.0B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss Jan Producer & Import Prices M/M: 0.0% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.4%e
- (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) left Repo Rate unchanged at 0.75% , as expected and maintained its rate path outlook
- (SE) Sweden Jan Unemployment Rate: 8.6% v 8.3%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 8.2% v 7.9%e

- (NL) Netherlands Jan CPI M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.6%e
- (NL) Netherlands Jan CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.6% v -0.3%; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.2%e
- (NL) Netherlands Dec Retail Sales Y/Y: -2.6% v -0.9% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Dec Mining Production M/M: +6.2% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: 12.0% v 4.6%e; Gold Production Y/Y: 12.8% v 35.5% prior
- (GR) Greece Nov Unemployment Rate: 28.0% v 27.7% prior (fresh record high)

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 7.5B vs. 7.5B indicated in 2016, 2021 and 2044 BTP bonds

- Sold 3.5B vs. 3.0-3.5B indicated range in 1.5% Dec 2016 BTP Bonds; Avg Yield: 1.41% (record low) v 1.51% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.43x v 1.4x prior
- Sold 2.5B vs. 2.0-2.5B indicated range in 3.75% 2021 BTP; Avg Yield 3.02% v 3.17% prior, Bid-to-cover: 1.37x v 1.4x prior
- Sold 1.5B vs. 1.0-1.5B in 4.75% Sept 2044 BTP; Avg Yield: 4.59% v 4.99% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.37x v 1.46 x prior

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.6%,
FTSE 100 -0.6% at 6,636, DAX -0.2% at 9,520, CAC-40 -0.3% at 4,292, IBEX-35 -1% at 9,972, FTSE MIB -1.1% at 19,920, SMI -0.4% at 8,367, S&P 500 Futures -0.4% at 1,809]

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets open lower following negative leads from Asia amid the release of mixed corporate earnings, FTSE MIB underperforms amid political concerns in Italy, UK companies weighed down by outlooks (Rolls Royce, Tate & Lyle), Commerzbank rises after earnings report while BNP and KBC decline, Industrial ABB cuts sales forecast

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Nestle NESN.CH -1% (FY results below ests); Renault RNO.FR +4% (upbeat outlook), Publicis PUB.FR +1.5% (Q4 sales +0.7%)]
- Consumer Staples [Tate & Lyle TATE.UK -14% (cautious outlook)]
- Financials [KBC KBC.BE -5% (Q4 results below ests), Lloyds LLOY.UK -4% (confirmed FY results), BNP -4% (profits hurt by US-related provision); Commerzbank CBK.DE +2.5% (Q4 profits above ests)]
- Industrials [Rolls Royce RR.UK -11% (cautious outlook), SAAB SAABB.SE -4% (Q4 profits declined y/y), ABB ABBN.CH -2% (cut sales forecast); Aker Solutions AKSO.NO +8% (upbeat outlook)]
- Technology [Rexel RXL.FR -4% (FY profits -15% y/y); Legrand LR.FR +5% (FY profits rose y/y)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [New World Resources NWR.UK -7% (Q4 loss widened), Rio Tinto -2% (reported FY results, tracking overall decline in mining shares)]
- Utilities [EDF EDF.FR +3% (FY EBITDA above ests)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Consumer Cyclical -0.6%, Industrials -0.6%, Telecom -0.5%, Financials -0.3%, Technology -0.1%; Utilities +0.8%, Basic Materials +0.4%, Energy +0.3%, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat]

- BOE's Dale:
Market pricing of a 2015 rate hike is reasonable. MPC won't take risks with recovery. Rates to remain low for some time and likely to rise only gradually
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves post rate decision press conference noted that emerging market turbulence would not affect the Swedish economy and saw good growth sequence in coming years
- Germany Econ Min Gabriel stated that German growth to be driven by its domestic engine and sought good union brokered pay accords to boost consumer spending
- UK Chancellor Osborne stated that the GBP currency (Pound) was not an asset to divide up if Scotland became independent. Scottish Nationalist threat to walk away from share of UK debt would mean punitively high interest rates for Scottish debt issuance. He could not recommend sharing the GBP currency with Scotland
- Spain Treasury Chief de Mesa: to revise rules for securitization
- ECB Monthly Report reiterated its forward guidance
- ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) cuts its inflation view for both 2014 and 2015
to 1.1% and 1.4% respectively. The survey maintained its growth forecasts for both. The survey also contained 2016 projections with GDP seen at 1.7% and EU Harmonized inflation at 1.7%. (**The March ECB meeting will also release the Staff Projections. Draghi stated that the meeting in March would see ECB staff's first view of 2016, which would be very significant.)
- EU's Fule reiterated that Europe was ready to aid Ukraine economy and could act quicker if situation worsened. EU committed to Ukraine association agreement, but not as a final goal
- Ukraine Central Bank official Shcherbakova: Not considering new tools for FX markets
- Japan BOJ Gov Kuroda: BOJ easing putting downward pressure on bond yields. Lower bond yields important for domestic economy. Want to achieve 2% inflation target as soon as possible.
- Spain Cabinet to approve Renewables decree this week
- Treasury Sec Lew: US has seen progress from China on yuan currency; Needs more progress toward market-set yuan
- Indonesia Central Bank stated at its rate decision that it would maintain tight monetary policy in 2014 and reiterated that 2014 GDP growth was seen at lower end of 5.8-6.2% range. It forecasted 2014 Inflation between 3.5-5.5% range and would monitor inflation risks further
- China banks end of Q4 non-performing loans CNY592.1B, NPL ratio 1.0% (highest since June 2012)
- IEA Monthly Report raised 2014 oil demand forecast by125K bpd to 92.6M bpd citing rebound in growth in advanced economies. It did cut its Q1 oil demand forecast for emerging markets by 80K bpd

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk aversion was rising a bit in the session which saw the CHF currency benefit. Dealers noted of good USD selling from Asian players. The USD/CHF fell over 70 pips to test below 0.8930.
- The Euro saw a quick 40 pips rise to a 1-week highs of 1.3686 after the release of the ECB monthly report. Of note was the Survey of Professional Forecasters projections for 2016 which saw both GDP and inflation at 1.7%. The view cemented that deflation was not a concern and dimmed any near-term rate move. Draghi had stated that the meeting in March would see ECB staff's first view of 2016, which would be very significant.
- GBP/USD at 3-week highs above 1.6630 and probing fresh 2014 highs

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Coene (Belgium): Eurozone inflation of 0.7% is not a sufficient element to spur ECB to new measures - financial press; Expectations for future inflation are more important.
- (EU) ECB's Coeure: Data indicates that recovery is continuing and unemployment is stabilizing
-(EU) ECB's Hansson: There is no risk for deflation in the EMU, QE should be under consideration in the case of any materializing deflation risk but there are questions whether it is effective;
- (EU) Bundesbank's Nagel: EMU is not out of the woods yet, though markets have become more relaxed about Europe
- (IT) Italy PM Letta: If anyone wants to see me replaced as prime minister, the need to say so openly; Clarity is needed from coalition partners.
-(IT) Italy President Napolitano: Politicians need to act responsibly; do not need to call new elections at this time
- (PT) IMF releases latest tranche for Portugal following conclusion of 10th review; Short-term outlook improved while risks remain.
-(US) Fed's Fisher (hawk, FOMC voter): Taper likely to continue, barring economic reversal
-(US) Fed's Bullard (dove, FOMC non-voter in 2014): Changing pace of the taper would have large repercussions, Fed is cautious about changing the speed
-(LY) Reportedly Libya Defense Minister has stated that an attempted coup by a group of military officers and civilians has been prevented - Lebanon press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU Leaders begin 2-day Summit in Brussels
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 1.75B in 3.75% 2052 Gilts
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-Months Bills

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Floating Bonds
- 06:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Feb 7th: No est v $498.8B prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Retail Sales M/M: 0.3%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 5.0%e v 7.0% prior; Broad Retail Sales Y/Y: 5.5%e v 5.7% prior
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bills
- 06:00 (PL) Poland to sell up to PLN5.0B in 2018 and 2023 bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (EU) Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem in Netherlands Parliament
- 08:30 (US) Jan Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.0%e v 0.2% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.1%e v 0.7% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: 0.1%e v 0.6% -prior; Retail Sales Control Group: 0.2%e v 0.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 330Ke v 331K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.96Me v 2.964M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.4% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 09:00 (IT) Italy PD leader Renzi to explain position on Letta govt
- 10:00 (US) Dec Business Inventories: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior
- 10:30 (US) Fed Chair Yellen testimony in Senate banking committee delayed due to weather
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (IS) Iceland Jan International Reserves (ISK): No est v 487B prior
- 11:00 (US) Treasury 30-year Tips announcement
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to Sell 2015, 2016 and 2018 Bills
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to Sell Floating-rate Notes due 3/1/2020 - LFT
- 12:00 (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov. Olsen makes Annual Speech
- 12:00 (ZA) South Africa President Zuma State of the Union
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $16B in 30-Year Bonds
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan CPI M/M: No est v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 10.9% prior
- 17:05 (AU) RBA Dep Gov Kent gives Speech in Sydney
- 18:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 4.00%
- 18:00 (EU) EU's Barnier in Washington Feb. 14-15
- 20:30 (CN) China Jan PPI Y/Y: -1.6%e v -1.4% prior
- 20:30 (CN) China Jan CPI Y/Y: 2.4%e v 2.5% prior




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