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Thursday February 13, 2014 - 16:50:23 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Negative Sentiment Gets Snowed Under

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Negative Sentiment Gets Snowed Under
Thu, 13 Feb 2014 11:33 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Feb 7th: $490.2B v $498.8B prior
- (BR) Brazil Dec Retail Sales M/M: -0.2% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.0% v 5.0%e; Broad Retail Sales Y/Y: 2.9% v 5.5%e
- (US) Jan Advance Retail Sales M/M: -0.4% v 0.0%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: -0.2% v +0.1%e; Retail Sales Control Group: -0.3% v +0.2%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 339K v 330Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.953M v 2.96Me
- (CA) Canada Dec New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e
- (US) Dec Business Inventories: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior
- (US) Fed Chair Yellen testimony in Senate banking committee delayed due to weather
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: -237 bcf v -226 bcf to -232 bcf expected

- The poor January US retail sales report, the bump higher in weekly jobless claims, Cisco's terrible earnings and declines in Asian and European indices overnight sent equity futures lower before the open this morning. However markets have traded straight up from the open as analysts explain away the gloom. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.24%, the S&P500 is up 0.21% and the Nasdaq is up 0.44%.

- January retail sales slipped lower m/m even as the December result was revised lower, into negative territory. The disappointing data had a real impact before the open, however the reason for the slip is pretty obvious: icy weather. The biggest burden on the report was sagging auto sales, which was abundantly clear in US January sales numbers out of the major auto manufacturers a week ago. Add the weather-impacted report to the miss in the January PMI manufacturing and the monthly job numbers.

- The drama continues in Italy, where the PD party is meeting to discuss the future of the government coalition. PD leader Renzi sounded like he was trying to shove PM Letta out the door, calling for a "new phase" in the government under the same structure, with support from PdL. Letta is demanding a party vote before he will step down. After climbing steadily up off 1.3565 over the last 24 hours, EUR/USD topped out above 1.3680 and moved a bit lower.

- Time Warner Cable has agreed to Comcast's $158.82/shr all-stock merger offer, valuing the cable giant around $45.2 billion. Charter Communications walks away as the big loser here, as it was unable to raise its $132.50/shr offer. The deal combines the two largest US cable TV companies in an entity with 30 million subscribers, and is practically guaranteed to draw lots of anti-trust attention. Note that the deal notably did not include any breakup fee, and also that shares of TWC have only risen to $145 (up around 7%), about halfway between Charter's and Comcast's offers. Comcast has pledged to divest 3 million subscribers after the deal closes.

- CBS is up 4% or so this morning on a pretty solid quarterly report. Net income rose nearly 20% y/y and revenue gained 6% y/y, with growth seen in all the firm's main content development businesses. The TWC/CMCSA deal highlighted that content is king, said CEO Moonves, who also offered the firm isn't really looking at any deals itself right now.

- Discomfort with the future of Cisco has only deepened after its latest quarterly revenue decline. Cisco's revenue slid 8% y/y in its second quarter, and it said it would slide another 6-8% in its third quarter. CEO Chambers pounded the table, citing a book-to-bill greater than 1.0 and the best booking backlog the company has seen in years, but investors aren't buying it. CSCO is down 4.4%. Note that Applied Materials and Nvidia were up as much as 3-4% just after the open thanks to strong quarterly reports.

- Among the biggest moves is Orbitz, up 30% this morning on solid outperformance in its fourth quarter. URS Corp is down 12.5% after missing expectations in its preliminary 2014 guidance and disclosing a significant decline in the firm's end-2013 backlog.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov. Olsen makes Annual Speech
- 12:00 (ZA) South Africa President Zuma State of the Union
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $16B in 30-Year Bonds
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan CPI M/M: No est v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 10.9% prior
- 17:05 (AU) RBA Dep Gov Kent gives Speech in Sydney
- 18:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 4.00% prior
- 18:00 (EU) EU's Barnier in Washington Feb. 14-15
- 20:30 (CN) China Jan PPI Y/Y: -1.6%e v -1.4% prior
- 20:30 (CN) China Jan CPI Y/Y: 2.4%e v 2.5% prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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