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Friday February 14, 2014 - 16:24:36 GMT
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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - SEVERE WEATHER ADDS TO MARKET UNCERTAINTY

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS  FRIDAY 14 FEBRUARY 2014

 

SEVERE WEATHER ADDS TO MARKET UNCERTAINTY

 

• Severe weather affects US releases, leaving uncertainty about the underlying pace of activity

• Markets will pour over UK data with unemployment forecast to rise and retail sales to fall

• Japanese Q4 GDP expected to accelerate on firmer domestic demand

 

Uncertainty continues to weigh on markets ... Financial markets have observed an uneasy truce so far in February. Caution remains over the outlook for emerging and developed economies, but equity markets have regained most of their recent lost ground, while fixed income markets are still cautious. Uncertainty over data has not helped, with the Chinese New Year confusing interpretation of this week’s figures. The coming week sees a rush of economic releases from around the globe, but further distortion is likely with severe weather affecting key regions including the US and UK.

 

More than a short-term slowdown?... The coming week should be a key one for determining the outlook for US activity. February’s forward-looking Empire and Philadelphia Fed surveys are due, as  are a number of housing activity indicators. Our global team forecasts softness in these numbers. However, it is unclear how much would reflect this year’s severe weather, which caused the deferral of the second leg of Fed Chair Yellen’s Congressional testimony this week; how much reflects a short-run retracement of inventories accumulated over H2 2013; and how much might reflect a more persistent stalling. January’s FOMC minutes on Wednesday will be watched for an assessment of this, although Yellen downplayed recent weakness in this week’s testimony. Markets will also watch CPI and PPI inflation figures with energy prices likely to push headline rates higher.

 

UK labour market still the key ... Following this week’s Inflation Report, domestic focus will be on Wednesday’s MPC minutes and labour market release. Given the “strong support” for the adjustment to MPC forward guidance, we do not expect the minutes to reveal much more. However, the effective expiry of forward guidance should make these more interesting going forward. The labour market will retain its importance, despite the relegation of the unemployment rate from the primary policy focus. We expect the rate to rise to 7.2%, but think this will be a temporary increase with further declines expected over the coming months. Employment and wage growth are likely to be the more important clues to the policy outlook from here. We also expect a sharp drop in January’s retail sales, following December’s surprise rise.

 

Euro area growth does just enough? ... The euro area publishes activity surveys for February this week with the German ZEW survey on Tuesday and preliminary PMIs on Thursday. Our global team forecasts these to be broadly unchanged, signalling ongoing modest expansion in euro area activity in Q1. Q4 GDP came in a touch stronger at 0.3% today. While we suspect a softer quarter in Q1, reflecting more subdued global activity and specific events in key economies - notably the French VAT increase - we forecast ongoing expansion throughout 2014. Our global team believes this will be sufficient to begin to erode spare capacity and see inflation rise gently into 2015. As such, signs of firmer activity are seen as likely sufficient to dissuade the ECB from further stimulus as it continues to dismiss comparisons with Japan.

 

Japanese economy to post stronger growth ... Japan releases Q4 GDP on Monday. We expect a quickening in the pace of growth in Q4, forecasting 0.7% from 0.3% in Q3. Encouragingly, this looks to be mainly driven by domestic demand growth. This might reflect the impact of Abenomics and a weakening of the deflationary grip on Japanese spending. Or it might be an early reaction to this year’s sales tax rise. Either way, the Bank of Japan is likely to hold its course on Tuesday. We do not expect further stimulus without the emergence of clear signs of a faltering recovery

 

 

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 Whilst Lloyds TSB ank plc (“Lloyds TSB”) and Bank of Scotland plc ("Bank of Scotland") have exercised reasonable care in preparing this material and any views or information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the facts and data contained herein.

 

This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland, their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland Relationship Manager for clarification.

 

Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets and Lloyds TSB are trading names of Lloyds TSB Bank plc, Lloyds TSB Scotland plc and Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Registered Office: 25 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7HN. Registered in England and Wales no. 2065. Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Registered Office: Henry Duncan House, 120 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 4LH. Registered in Scotland no. 95237. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound, Edinburgh EH1 1YZ. Registered in Scotland no. SC32700. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration numbers 119278, 191240 and 169628 respectively.

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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