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Monday February 17, 2014 - 06:31:48 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China lending at multi-year highs; Japan GDP slows further in Q4 - Source TradeTheNews.com

***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA JAN NEW YUAN LOANS (CNY): 1.3T (4-YEAR HIGH) V 1.1TE >- (CN) CHINA JAN AGGREGATE FINANCING (CNY): 2.58T V 1.93TE (multi-year high) - (CN) CHINA JAN MONEY SUPPLY M2 Y/Y JAN 13.2% (20-month low) V 13.3%E; M1 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 1.2% V 8.5%E - (JP) JAPAN Q4 PRELIM GDP Q/Q: 0.3% (1-year low) V 0.7%E; NOMINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.8%E; GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 1.0% V 2.8%E - (JP) JAPAN DEC FINAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.9% V 1.1% PRELIM; Y/Y: 7.1% V 7.3% PRELIM; CAPACITY UTILIZATION M/M: +2.2% V -0.5% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES M/M: -3.5% (largest decline in 6 months) V +1.7% PRIOR; Y/Y: -3.0% V 0.1% PRIOR - (SG) SINGAPORE JAN ELECTRONIC EXPORTS Y/Y: -17.0% V -4.3%E; NON-OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS M/M: -5.0% V -1.0%E; Y/Y: -3.3% V -1.6%E - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q4 RETAIL SALES EX-INFLATION Q/Q: 1.2% V 1.7%E; Core q/q: 0.7% v -0.2% prior - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN PERFORMANCE SERVICES INDEX: 58.1 (6-year high) V 57.6 PRIOR - (SL) SRI LANKA LEAVES REVERSE REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 8.00%; LEAVES REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 6.50% (EXPECTED) - (UK) UK FEB RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICES M/M: 3.3% (16-month high) V 1.0% PRIOR; Y/Y: 6.9% (6-year high) V 6.3% PRIOR ***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - China lending spurt is typical for the month of January when consumer loans spike ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, but the data released over the weekend was particularly impressive. 4-year high in new yuan loans is said to be indicative of the govt looking to compensate for credit risk in shadow banking, and some of the analysts are now quick to dismiss the recent concerns over China slowdown following the lending data. China-related focus will shift to the Wednesday evening (ET) release of HSBC Flash PMI, which got the fear snowball rolling when it dipped into its first contraction in 5 months in January. - Feeble Japan Q4 GDP should add some more concern to BOJ board members on the eve of the next central bank statement. Growth matched Q3 expansion at 0.3% - a 1-year low. Corporate expenditures recovered with a 1.3% rise, a 3-quarter high, but private consumption (largest component) was still a soft 0.5%. Rise in import component to 3.5% from 2.4% as well as a sharp slowdown in the growth of public investment (from 7.2% to 2.3%) were also notable headwinds in the disappointing report. ***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (KR) South Korea sells 10-yr bonds, yield 3.495% - (JP) Moody: Japan's shrinking current account surplus is Credit Negative - (JP) BOJ offers to buy 250B in 1-3yr JGB, 250B in 3-5yr JGB and 400B in 5-10yr JGB - SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,030.8 tonnes (2-week low) from 10,090.7 tonnes last reported - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 5.1 tonnes to 801.3 tonnes (first decline since Jan 23rd) - AUD/USD and NZD/USD were both up just over 30pips at their best levels above 0.9060 abd 0.8390 respectively, with upbeat sentiment after the China credit data outweighing the concern over slowdown in Japan. USD/JPY fell as low as 101.40 just after the Q4 GDP release. EUR/USD hit 3-week highs above 1.3720, while GBP/USD traded as high as 1.6820 - highest levels since Nov 2009. ***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China Construction Bank Chairman Wang: Overall risk of financial system in China is modest - press - (CN) Shanghai new home sales +246.69% w/w at 101.9K sqm; Avg new home prices +4.31% w/w at CNY26.3K/sqm - Uwin - (CN) China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) Researcher Mei: China Jan export rise were not from hot money inflow - Chinese press - (CN) China iron ore port inventories rise to record 100.25M tonnes - financial press - (CN) China Stats Bureau: China official home prices do not reflect the market - Chinese press - (CN) China should keep reasonable economic growth: potential GDP likely to decline - People's Daily - (CN) 22 provinces in China lower GDP growth target for 2014; Beijing and Shanghai both lower 2014 GDP target to 7.5%, v 2013 GDP of 7.7% - Chinese press - (CN) HSBC economist: Will take a few more months before China economy hits bottom; May need more aggressive govt measures to turn economy around - financial press - (CN) ANZ economist: Markets should react positively to latest China lending data - financial press - (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: GDP consumption expected to rise ahead of sales tax hike; Sees firmly on rise in Japan economy, mainly on private demand - (JP) Japan PM Abe: Strongly expecting companies to move toward higher pay; Would be best to raise salaries by 2-3% - (JP) BOJ is expected to maintain its quantitative/qualitative policy easing program this week; About 25% of economists see the chance further easing in July - Nikkei (update) - (JP) BOJ said to consider refraining from making a monetary-base forecast for 2015 - financial press - (JP) Japan PM Abe cabinet approval rating falls 2% to 60% - Yomiuri News - (JP) Three China coastguard vessels were sighted around the disputed Senkaku Islands on Sunday - financial press **Europe** - (FR) ECB's Coeure (France): ECB remains "very vigilant" on downside risks to price stability - press >- (GR) Greece PM Samaras: Primary budget surplus for 2013 was 1.5B vs 344M projected in October; Allows govt to boost social spending - Greek press - (GR) Greece opposition leader Tsipras: Will not support any candidate in the spring 2015 elections; Looking to force another round of Parliamentary polls - German press - (DE) Moody's: German court's doubts over the legality of ECB bond buying (OMT) is a credit negative for euro area sovereign ratings - (EU) German Chancellor Merkel opposed the proposal by Fin Min Schaeuble to offer fresh aid to Greece ahead of May 25th European elections - financial press - (UK) BOE Gov Carney: BOE will only start raising rates once the economy is operating closer to full capacity - BBC interview - (UK) EU's Barroso: Would be very "difficult, if not impossible" for independent Scotland to intergrate with EU - financial press - (UR) Protesters in Kiev, Ukraine vacate occupied City Hall building after reaching agreement with the Yanukovych govt to accept amnesty; Over 200 detained protesters to be released - press ***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +0.7%, S&P/ASX +0.4%, Kospi +0.4%, Shanghai Composite +0.5%, Hang Seng +0.9%, Mar S&P500 -0.1% at 1,833, Apr gold +2.0% at $1,326, Mar crude oil +0.2% at $100.55/brl US markets: - BA: Said to consider building 777x wing facility sites in Everett - financial press - LMT: Negative CBS 60-Minutes feature on F-35 program; Said to be $163B over budget, 7-years behind schedule - RIG: Board recommends annual dividend of $3.00/shr; Implies 33.9% increase from current $2.24/shr - TSLA: Apple reportedly was in discussions last spring to acquire Tesla - financial press Notable movers by sector: - Consumer staples: Yamazaki Baking 2212.JP +6.0% (FY13 results) - Financials: China CITIC Bank 998.HK +1.7% (FY13 guidance); China Merchants Bank 3968.HK +2.6% (FY13 guidance); China Pacific Insurance Group 2601.HK +3.1% (Jan results); China Life Insurance 2628.HK +6.9% (Jan results) - Materials: Discovery Metals DML.AU -9.3% (provides lending update); Ausenco Ltd AAX.AU +2.9% (awarded contract) - Energy: Showa Shell 5002.JP -3.4% (FY13 results); Tonengeneral Sekiyu 5012.JP -1.2% (FY13 results) - Industrials: United Group UGL.AU -12.7% (H1 results); WDS Ltd WDS.AU +5.6% (FY14 guidance); Toyo Tanso 5310.JP +11.9% (FY13 results) - Technology: Tencent Holdings 700.HK +3.5% (acquires stake in China consumer service rating sites Dianping.com); Toshiba 6502.JP +2.8% (to double investment in India) - Utilities: Tepco 9501.JP +2.4% (union seeks to retract salary cut) - Source TradeTheNews.com

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
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