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Thursday February 20, 2014 - 06:05:22 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China Flash manufacturing PMI contraction deepens; Japan trade deficit soars to new heights - Source TradeTheNews.com

- (CN) CHINA FEB HSBC/MARKIT FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.3 V 49.5E (7-month low; 2nd consecutive contraction) - (JP) JAPAN JAN MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE: -2.79T (record high deficit) V -2.49TE; ADJUSTED TRADE BALANCE: -1.82T V -1.51TE - (JP) JAPAN JAN SUPERMARKET SALES Y/Y: -0.2% V -0.8% PRIOR - (JP) Japan investors bought 501.5B (first net buys in 5 weeks) in foreign bonds last week vs sold net 617.2B in prior week; Foreign Investors sold net 279.0B in Japan stocks v sold net 76.4B in prior week - (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN RBA FX TRANSACTIONS MARKET (A$): 362M V 884M PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q4 PPI INPUT Q/Q: -0.7% (first decline in a year) V 2.2% PRIOR; PPI OUTPUT: -0.4% (first decline in a year) V 2.4% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 133.0 V 135.8 PRIOR; M/M: -2.1 V +4.9% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS M/M: +2.8% (first rise in 3 months) V -0.7% PRIOR - (SG) SINGAPORE Q4 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 6.1% V 0.8%E; Y/Y: 5.5% V 5.3%E; Maintains 2014 GDP forecast 2.0-4.0% - (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: -470K (1st draw in 5 weeks) v +2Me; GASOLINE: +1.39M v -0.5Me; DISTILLATE: -675K v -2Me ***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - Tesla shares are zooming ahead with a 12% rise in extended session to fresh all-time highs above $215 after blowing away the estimates and guiding accelerated production and margin expansion while also promising strong growth in the China markets. - Australia earnings highlighted by improving results from Leighton Holdings, while key energy/materials companies - Alumina and Origin - slump on slower growth. - Japan trade conditions remain dire, with January figures showing the biggest deficit on record. Soft yen continues to do more damage than good on trade, as energy-driven growth in the value of imports outpaces the improvement in exports, serving as a reminder of just how critical the restart of nuclear reactors in Japan might be. Chief Cabinet Sec Suga attributed the slump in trade data to rising imports, while nuclear regulators were reported to be looking to conduct a safety review on a handful of reactors, paving the way to a "final review" in the coming months. Exports to China, US, and Europe, all showed double-digit growth rates, suggesting external demand is hardly to blame. - After an unexpected contraction in China HSBC manufacturing PMI last month, conditions deteriorated further in February. PMI slumped to a 7-month low of 48.3, new orders component fell below 50 for the first time in seven months, and the Employment sub-index hit the lowest reading since Feb 2009. Backlog and inventories also pierced below the 50-mark into contraction zone. Analysts noted that seasonality might be once again in play, with only about a week of reliable data for this flash report after the Lunar New Year break, however critics of China reporting were further unnerved by the discrepancy of soft manufacturing trend and strong trade/lending figures in January. To complicate matters further, PBoC once again demonstrated its shift toward a tightening bias with another large liquidity drain. ***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (JP) BOJ offers to buy 250B in 1-3yr JGB, 250B in 3-5yr JGB and 200B in JGB with maturity over 10-yr - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY60B in 14-day repos (2nd consecutive drain); Drains net CNY108B this week v drained CNY450B prior - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1146 v 6.1103 prior setting (Weakest Yuan setting since Dec 25th) - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 5.7 tonnes to 795.6 tonnes (lowest level since Feb 3rd) - Risk-off sentiment on the heels of the disappointing China manufacturing PMI predictably translated into soft AUD / strong JPY trade. AUD/USD fell about 50pips toward $0.8950, USD/JPY was down about 30pips below 102, and AUD/JPY cross saw a combined loss of nearly 100pips, falling from 92 to 91.05 session low post flash-PMI print. ***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) BofA/ML's Lu Ting: China HSBC/Markit flash PMI survey was conducted during the period of Feb 12-18th, where most of small-mid sized firms were just back to work from Lunar New Years holidays; Small-mid sized firms are majority sample of survey, which could lead flash PMI to a mis-representation of economic activity in China - (CN) PBoC: China 2013 eastern region social financing CNY9.04T v CNY7.65T in 2011 - annual regional financing report - (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: Abenomics does not have a military purpose; Balance of trade affected by imports increase - (JP) BOJ member Morimoto: Japan growth to exceed potential despite sales tax hike; Sees strong probability of meeting 2% inflation target from H2 of 2014 - (JP) Japan nuclear regulators to provide safety review in weeks - Kyodo News - (JP) Japan Bankers Association Chairman: "Beginning to see good numbers" in terms of growing appetite for business loans - Nikkei - (KR) According to one survey, over 62% are satisfied with South Korea Pres Park's handling of the govt - Korean press - (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK): South Korea bankruptcies in Jan rose to 88 from 68 in Dec, which was a 6-month low - Korean press - (KR) South Korea Ministry of Finance: To monitor spike in yuan and other fx currency deposits for potential risks - (AU) Australia Treasurer Hockey: Reiterates G20 to discuss impact of US Fed taper - (SG) Singapore Central Bank (MAS) : Monetary policy at appropriate setting, remains unchanged; Unchanged view for 2014 inflation - (TH) Thailand Central Bank Gov Prasarn: Thailand has policy space, current rate accommodative; Not worried about Fed tapering impact - (US) Fed's Williams (dove, FOMC non-voter): Bar is high to halt winddown of bond purchases; Fed needs to revise forward guidance system - (UR) Follow up: Ukraine President Yanukovych: Govt, Opposition have agreed on truce - financial press ***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -2.2%, S&P/ASX -0.1%, Kospi -0.6%, Shanghai Composite +0.7%, Hang Seng -1.1%, Mar S&P500 -0.4% at 1,818, Apr gold -0.6% at $1,312, Mar crude oil -0.2% at $103.07/brl US markets: - TSLA: Reports Q4 $0.33 v $0.21e, Non-gaap Rev $761M v $679Me; CEO Musk: Confirms held talks with Apple in 2013; declines to provide details of conversation - conf call comments; +12.6% afterhours - SWY: Reports Q4 $0.53(adj) v $0.46e, R$11.31B v $11.5Be; Confirms company is holding discussions regarding possible sale; +3.6% afterhours - EQIX: Reports Q4 $0.91 v $0.78e, R$564.7M v $563Me; +2.3% afterhours - ALL: Increases quarterly dividend by 12% to $0.28/shr; Launches $2.5B common stock repurchase program (11% of market cap); +0.7% afterhours - GPS: Raises minimum hourly rate for US employees to $9.00/hr; effective immediately; flat afterhours - MAR: Reports Q4 $0.49 v $0.50e, R$3.22B v $3.29Be; -0.1% afterhours - CAR: Reports Q4 $0.15 v $0.12e, R$1.85B v $1.83Be; -1.0% afterhours - TX: Reports Q4 $0.64 v $0.61e, R$2.12B v $2.09Be; -2.0% afterhours - FB: To acquire WhatsApp mobile messaging service for about $16B - filing; -2.7% afterhours - MM: Reports Q4 $0.08 v -$0.04e, R$97M v $97.8Me; -10.7% afterhours - ONTX: Phase 3 ONTIME Trial of Rigosertib in Higher Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) did not meet the primary endpoint; -35.6% afterhours Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Super Retail Group SUL.AU +3.6% (H1 results); Sydney Airport SYD.AU -0.1% (Jan traffic results); Shun Ho Technology Holdings 219.HK -6.0% (FY13 results); SEEK Ltd SEK.AU +2.1% (H1 results) - Financials: Western Securities 002673.CN +1.1% (prelim FY13 results); COL Capital Ltd 383.HK +32.0% (positive profit alert) - Materials: Alumina Ltd AWC.AU -1.0% (FY13 results) - Energy: Origin Energy ORG.AU -2.3% (H1 results); China Petrochemical Sinopec 600028.CN +10.0% (restructuring plans) - Industrials: Leighton Holdings +5.2% (FY13 results); Shanghai International Airport 600009.CN +1.6% (Jan traffic results); Toyota Motor 7203.JP -1.0% (no deal reached with steelmakers) - Technology: Tencent 700.HK -2.3%, NHN 035420.KR -7.9% (Facebook acquisition of WhatsApp) - Healthcare: Acrux Ltd ACR.AU +3.8% (H1 results) - Utilities: TEPCO 9501.JP -2.4% (detects leak) - Source TradeTheNews.com

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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