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Thursday February 20, 2014 - 10:44:35 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Market sentiment hurt by weaker PMIs, Fed minutes and shaky truce in Ukraine

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Market sentiment hurt by weaker PMIs, Fed minutes and shaky truce in Ukraine
Thu, 20 Feb 2014 5:19 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
-Manufacturing PMI data from France, Germany and China miss expectations
-Continued pressure on emerging market assets
-Fed minutes reveal discussions about the potential outlook for interest rates
-PBoC continues to drain liquidity following lending surge in January
- Spain again sells at upper end of indicated range in bond auction, auction was weighted towards the shorter maturities; peripheral spreads remain wider post auction
- Situation in Ukraine remains fluid

***Economic Data***
- (EU) EURO ZONE FEB ADVANCE PMI MANUFACTURING: 53.0 V 54.0E; PMI SERVICES: 51.7 V 51.9E; PMI COMPOSITE: 52.7 V 53.1E
- (DE) GERMANY FEB ADVANCE PMI MANUFACTURING: 54.7 V 56.3E; PMI SERVICES: 55.4 V 53.4E; COMPOSITE PMI: 56.1 V 55.5 PRIOR FINAL (highest level since June 2011)
- (FR) FRANCE FEB PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 48.5 V 49.5E; PMI SERVICES: 46.9 V 49.4E

- (FR) FRANCE JAN CPI M/M: -0.6% V -0.4%E; Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.8%E; CPI EX-TOBACCO INDEX: 125.04 V 125.14E
- (FR) FRANCE JAN CPI EU HARMONIZED M/M: -0.6% V -0.5% PRIOR; Y/Y: 0.8% V 0.9%E
- (DE) GERMANY JAN PPI M/M: -0.1% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: -1.1% V -0.8%E
- (IT) ITALY DEC INDUSTRIAL ORDERS M/M: -4.9% V 2.3% PRIOR; Y/Y: 1.9% V 3.0% PRIOR

Fixed Income:
-(ES) SPAIN DEBT AGENCY (TESORO) SELLS TOTAL 5.01B VS. 4.0-5.0B INDICATED RANGE IN 2019, 2024 AND 2044 BONDS
- Sells 2.24B in 2.75% Apr 2019 bono; Avg Yield 2.263% v 2.254% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.82x v 1.68x prior; Maximum Yield: 2.294% v 2.282% prior; Tail: 3.1bps v 2.8bps prior
- Sells 1.98B in Apr 2024 bono; Avg Yield 3.559% v 3.845% prior via syndicate; Bid-to-cover: 1.93x; Maximum Yield: 3.580%; Tail: 2.1bps
- Sells 798M in 2044 bono; Avg Yield 4.519% v 5.213% prior via syndicate; Bid-to-cover: 2.81x v 2.65x prior; Maximum Yield: 4.541%; Tail: 2.2bps
-(FR) FRANCE DEBT AGENCY (AFT) SELLS TOTAL 7.98B VS. 7.0-8.0B INDICATED RANGE IN 2016, 2017 AND 2019 OATS
- Sells 2.6B in 2.5% 2016 Oat; Avg Yield 0.28% v 0.61% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.35x v 3.84x prior
- Sells 1.37B in 4.25% 2017 Oat; Avg Yield 0.57% v 0.95% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.32x v 2.57x prior
- Sells 4.10B in 1.0% 2019 Oat; Avg Yield 1.06% v 1.24% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.00x v 1.92x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**

Indices [Stoxx 50 -0.8%, FTSE 100 -0.4% at 6,768, DAX -1.2% at 9,546, CAC-40 -0.5% at 4,321, IBEX-35 -0.7% at 9,985, FTSE MIB -1% at 20,225, SMI -0.7% at 8,356, S&P 500 Futures -0.2% at 1,822]

Market Focal Points: Equity markets open lower following Fed minutes and weaker PMI data out of China, DAX underperforms, European earnings mixed (Henkel and BAE Systems below expectations, Swiss Re above ests)

By Sector
Industrials [BAE Systems BA.UK -9% (cautious outlook), Sulzer SUN.CH -5% (FY profits declined y/y), Henkel HEN3.DE -4% (Q4 results below ests), Safran SAF.FR -2.5% (Q4 results in line), Technip TEC.FR +5% (reaffirmed outlook, raised dividend), Sacyr SYV.ES +3% (renewed speculation related to Panama Canal project), Petrofac PFC.UK +2% (contract award)]
Consumer Discretionary [Randstad RAND.NL -8% (Q4 results below ests), Adidas ADS.DE -2% (broker commentary); Playtech PTEC.UK +5% (announced special dividend), Technicolor TCH.FR +5% (guided FY14 EBITDA higher y/y), DIA DIA.ES +2.5% (FY profits rose y/y)]
Consumer Staples [Danone BN.FR +2% (FY sales in line)]
Financials [Aegon AGN.NL -5% (FY net profit declined); Natixis KN.FR +3% (Q4 profits rose y/y) Delta Lloyd DL.NL +1.5% (FY profits rose y/y)]
Technology [Cap Gemini CAP.FR +2% (FY profits rose y/y)]
Utilities [Suez Environmental SEV.FR +5% (FY profits rose y/y)]
Basic Materials/Resources [Fresnillo FRES.UK -3% (broker commentary)]
Stoxx50 sectors [Basic Materials -1.1%, Financials -1%, Industrials -1%, Consumer Cyclical -1%. Telecom -0.9%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.6%, Technology -0.5%; Utilities +0.5%, Energy +0.1%]

Speakers:
France Foreign Min Fabius: To ask Ukraine Pres Yanukovych to call for elections
Eurogroup Head Dijsselbloem: Reiterates economic outlook and economic sentiment are improving; Euro-area avg deficit seen below 3% in 2014; Sees special finance ministers meeting in March for SRM.
EU's Barnier: SMEs are confronted with severe financing difficulties; National rules not enough to regulate market activities
Ukraine Pres Yanukovych: Opposition used truce to plan new attack

Currencies/Fixed Income:
The EUR/USD started a bit strained as the Greenback started on a little comeback today as it hit a top around 1.3740 and tested down to 1.3686. With US CPI later in the US session it could be a fundamental feather in the hat for the Greenback to have a fighting chance for a reversal against euro, pound, yen and A$. Expectations of tapering continue to hold sway with action still expected as early as Sept. The euro remained little moved on results of Spain and France debt auctions.
The sterling retreated slightly in the session staying in less than a 50 pip range from its high of 1.6695 after 2 days of disappointing data including ILO unemployment rising and CPI coming in below 2.0% inflation target.
Emerging markets remain in the forefront as persistent weakness in the Rand, Ruble and Forint continue.

Political/In the Papers:
-(HU) Hungary Econ Min Varga: 2014 budget based on EUR/HUF rate of 296; Weaker HUF favorable for exporters
-(UR) Ukraine Parliament to be evacuated
-(UR) Russia will not cancel financial aid to the Ukraine
-(UR) Ukraine lawmakers working to make changes to the constitution; Parliament to vote to take measures to keep govt functioning
-(SE) Sweden Fin Ministry: Lowers 2014 GDP at 2.5% v 2.4% prev forecast in Dec; Guides 2015 GDP at 3.5%; Proposes measures to raise SEK9B annually over next few years through higher taxes on alcohol, tobacco and vehicles and lower deductions on private pensions
-(CN) China's Jilin Trust said it cooperates with China Construction Bank (CCB) on trust products
-(NG) Nigeria Pres suspends Central Bank head for financial recklessness
-(RU) Russia PM Medvedev: Russia govt can only have full bilateral cooperation with Ukraine when legitimate authorities are in good shape

**Looking Ahead***
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Final IGP-M Inflation: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Jan PPI M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.1% prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Feb 14th: No est v -2.0% prior
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Jan Unemployment Rate: 6.1%e v 5.6% prior
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Jan Retail Sales Real M/M: -26.0%e v +19.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.7%e v 3.8% prior
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Jan Real Disposable Income: 2.5%e v 1.5% prior
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Jan Real Wages Y/Y: 3.0%e v 1.9% prior
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Jan Investment in Productive Capacity: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior
- 07:45 (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e Feb 15th
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jan Sold Industrial Output M/M: +2.7%e v -9.7% prior; Y/Y: 3.5%e v 6.6% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jan PPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.8%e v -0.9% prior
- 08:30 (US) Jan Housing Starts: 950Ke v 999K prior; Building Permits: 978Ke v 991K prior (revised from 986K)
- 08:30 (US) Jan PPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) Jan PPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.2% prior
- (JP) BOJ Monthly Report
- 08:55 (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Feb 15th
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves:
- 10:00 (US) Q4 MBA Mortgage Delinquencies: No est v 6.41% prior; MBA Mortgage Foreclosures: No est v 3.08% prior
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil Weekly Currency Flows Weekly
- 12:15 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks on Economy in Macon, Georgia
- 13:00 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks to Exchequer Club in Washington
- 14:00 (US) Fed Minutes from Jan 28-29 FOMC Meeting
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Q4 Unemployment Rate: 6.7%e v 6.8% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Inventories
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Jan Trade Balance: -2.487Te v -1.302T prior; Adj Trade Balance: -1.51Te v -1.149T prior
- 19:00 (US) Fed's Williams speaks on the Economy in New York
- 20:45 (CN) China Feb HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI: 49.5e v 49.5 prior

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



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