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Friday February 21, 2014 - 10:57:48 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Weaker than expected UK retail sales has little initial impact on markets

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Weaker than expected UK retail sales has little initial impact on markets
Fri, 21 Feb 2014 5:19 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
-Ukraine opposition yet to comment on potential accord which involves early elections and vote on constitutional changes
-European equity markets trade mixed amid options expiry
-Euro Zone excess liquidity hits lowest level since Dec 2011 ahead of ECB LTRO repayments announcement
-UK retail sales have largest decline since April 2012 following strong Dec, little initial impact on Sterling
-European peripheral debt spreads tighten after widening during prior session
-Fitch affirms Austria following the earlier speculation that the country could be placed on watch negative

***Economic Data***
- (UK) JAN RETAIL SALES INCL. AUTO M/M: -1.5% V -1.0%E (largest drop since Apr 2012); Y/Y: 4.3% V 5.0%E

- (SE) SWEDEN FEB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 100.3 V 104.0E; MANUFACTURING CONFIDENCE: 103.8 V 107.1E; ECONOMIC TENDENCY SURVEY: 104.6 V 107.0E
- (CH) SWISS JAN M3 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 8.6% V 7.7% PRIOR
- (HK) HONG KONG JAN CPI COMPOSITE Y/Y: 4.6% V 4.4%E

Fixed Income:
- (AT) Fitch affirms Austria sovereign rating at AAA; Outlook stable
- (IE) FITCH AFFIRMS IRELAND SOVEREIGN RATING AT BBB+; OUTLOOK STABLE
- (UR) S&P LOWERS UKRAINE SOVEREIGN RATING TO CCC FROM CCC+: OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.5% at 9,610, CAC-40 +0.1% at 4,360, IBEX-35 -0.3% at 10,033, FTSE MIB -0.3% at 20,395, SMI +0.2% at 8,403, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 1,840]

Market Focal Points: Equity markets open slightly higher following positive leads out of Tokyo , France's CAC-40 trades near 5.5 year high on gains in Valeo

By Sector
Consumer Discretionary [Kering KER.FR -3% (FY results declined y/y); Millennium & Copthorne MLC.UK +5% (FY profits rose y/y), Wessanen WES.NL +3% (Q4 loss narrowed)]
Financials [AXA CS.FR -2% (FY profits below ests); RBS RBS.UK +1% (job cut speculation)]
Industrials [Valeo FR.FR +10% (positive broker commentary following earnings report)]
Telecom [Vodafone VOD.UK +2% (broker commentary)]
Basic Materials/Resources [SGL Carbon SGL.DE -6% (profit warning), Eramet ERA.FR -1% (suspended dividend)]
Stoxx 50 Sectors [Utilities +0.6%, Energy +0.6% Technology +0.4%, Consumer Cyclical +0.2%, Industrials +0.2%, Basic Materials +0.1%, Telecom flat, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat, ; Financials -0.2%]

Speakers:
German Fin Min Schaeuble: Emerging countries must follow a path of structured reform
Thailand Fin Min: Govt to sell bonds in order to buy rice
Hungary PM Orban: HUF volatility not an issue as it increases exports; Targeting GDP growth of 4% in 2016
Singapore Fin Min Shanmugartnam: 2013 budget surplus 1.1% of GDP
Russia Fin Min Siluanov: Investors are not leaving Russian debt market; rates will not increase without serious pressure on the ruble
Senior EU diplomat: Sees agreement on Ukraine to be signed today with Constitutional reform by Sep which will cut Pres powers

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- GBP/USD tested near session highs of 1.6690 after the Sterling shrugged off weaker retail sales both ex and including auto. Lows came in near 1.6613. Markets seemed none too concerned about a possible impeding slowdown the consumer spending data may foreshadow. . EUR/USD stayed in approx. a 20 pip range from 1.3724-1.3702 with little catalyst in the first half of the EU session. The yen was weaker in the Asia session against all majors, 102.4 for the dollar and 140.50 against the Euro. Lacking major economic data the other currencies were little changed and should remain so for the rest of the trading day with only US housing data a potential big mover. However the markets may not take it too seriously because of the weather impact.

Political/In the Papers:
(ES) Spain calls for the creation of funds for bank's bad loans
(AT) WIFO sees Austria missing budget goals due to bank rescues; Reaffirms 2014 and 2015 GDP at 1.7%
(GR) Greece top 4 banks may need 5.0B in capital, based on stress test results
(UR) Ukraine said to have canceled $2B 5-yr euro bond issue for Russia
(UR) Ukraine Presidency to sign accord for crisis resolution today after coming to agreement with EU ministers; Opposition has agreed to an initial deal to resolve crisis; Deal could see early elections, a new coalition, as well as constitutional changes
(IT) Italy's Renzi to meet Pres Napolitano later today; will present ministers' list
(KR) South Korea Fin Min: Urges Japan not to rely on the weakness of JPY
(FR) France Ind Min Montebourg: Plans 400M investment in France mining industry; To invest in metals and rare-earths; Want to create French national mining companies

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
-6:00EST/11:00GMT Iceland to sell Bonds-
-6:00EST/11:00GMT ECB announces weekly 3-Year LTRO Repayment
-6:10EST/11:10GMT UK DMO to sell 3.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
-- 6:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Feb 9th: No est v $292.3B prior
-7:00EST/12:00GMT EU EMA releases Drug Approvals and Safety Decisions
-7:00EST/12:00GMT Brazil Feb IBGE Inflation IPCA-15
-8:00EST/13:00GMT Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) could announce upcoming bond auctions
-8:30EST/13:30GMT Brazil Jan Current Account Balance
-8:30EST/13:30GMT Brazil Jan Foreign Investment
-8:30EST/13:30GMT Canada Dec Retail Sales; Retail Sales Ex-Auto
-8:30EST/13:30GMT Canada Jan CPI; Core CPI; Consumer Price Index
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
-9:00EST/14:00GMT Mexico Dec Economic Activity
-9:00EST/14:00GMT Mexico Q4 GDP; Nominal GDP; GDP Full Year
-10:00EST/15:00GMT US Jan Existing Home Sales; Existing Home Sales Revisions
-13:10EST/18:10GMT Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard gives presentation on "U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy" before a St. Louis Forum luncheon
-13:45EST/18:45GMT Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher speaks on "U.S. and Regional Economic Outlook" before the University of Texas at Austin McCombs School of Business Ninth Annual Alumni Business Conference

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



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