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German IFO and Eurozone HICP (CPI) Data Due Monday
|German IFO and Eurozone HICP (CPI) Data Due Monday|
24 February 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: DE- IFO Survey, HICP (CPI), GB- Distributive Trades. US- flash Markit Services PMI
| EURUSD 1.3739
|| U.S. 2.75% -1bp
|| North America: Mixed|
| EURJPY 140.93
|| Bund 1.67% -2bp
|| DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6634
|| GILT 2.78% -2bp
|| FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 102.56
|| JGB 0.60% +1bp
|| Far East Close:Higher|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: DE- IFO Survey, HICP (CPI)
- The new week starts off with a bang with the closely followed German IFO Survey due. Data are seen as steady to weaker vs. the prior report.
- We have become weary of weather as an explanation for why economic data is weaker than expected. Poor weather is not a valid explanation for data misses. We feel the underlying data must be weaker than expected and that better weather might not help a lot.
- This week (Thursday) will see the second round of (postponed) testimony by new Fed Chair Yellen before the Senate. Her prepared testimony should not be changed, but we wonder if in light of recent data she will temper her economic outlook.
- In general, the Fed is expected to remain on its USD 10bln per meeting taper schedule, but will continue to pursue an ultra-easy short-term monetary policy well into the future. Obviously, policy will be data-dependent.
- German Retail Sales and Employment data over the week will be closely
scrutinized. Eurozone HICP (CPI) data have been a high impact item recently and certainly will be watched for any more signs of ongoing disinflationary pressures. A couple more U.S. pieces of Housing data are due over the period along with Senate testimony by Janet Yellen. U.S. sentiment surveys are due as well along with UK, U.S. and Canadian GDP figures.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released, see the FOREX FORUM.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 19 Mar 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Tue 20 Mar 2018
AA 9:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Mar 2018
AA 03:00 AU- Employment
AA 9:30 GB- Employment
A 12:30 US- Current Account
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A A 18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision
A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision
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A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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