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Sunday February 23, 2014 - 15:42:02 GMT
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German IFO and Eurozone HICP (CPI) Data Due Monday
|German IFO and Eurozone HICP (CPI) Data Due Monday|
24 February 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: DE- IFO Survey, HICP (CPI), GB- Distributive Trades. US- flash Markit Services PMI
| EURUSD 1.3739
|| U.S. 2.75% -1bp
|| North America: Mixed|
| EURJPY 140.93
|| Bund 1.67% -2bp
|| DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6634
|| GILT 2.78% -2bp
|| FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 102.56
|| JGB 0.60% +1bp
|| Far East Close:Higher|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: DE- IFO Survey, HICP (CPI)
- The new week starts off with a bang with the closely followed German IFO Survey due. Data are seen as steady to weaker vs. the prior report.
- We have become weary of weather as an explanation for why economic data is weaker than expected. Poor weather is not a valid explanation for data misses. We feel the underlying data must be weaker than expected and that better weather might not help a lot.
- This week (Thursday) will see the second round of (postponed) testimony by new Fed Chair Yellen before the Senate. Her prepared testimony should not be changed, but we wonder if in light of recent data she will temper her economic outlook.
- In general, the Fed is expected to remain on its USD 10bln per meeting taper schedule, but will continue to pursue an ultra-easy short-term monetary policy well into the future. Obviously, policy will be data-dependent.
- German Retail Sales and Employment data over the week will be closely
scrutinized. Eurozone HICP (CPI) data have been a high impact item recently and certainly will be watched for any more signs of ongoing disinflationary pressures. A couple more U.S. pieces of Housing data are due over the period along with Senate testimony by Janet Yellen. U.S. sentiment surveys are due as well along with UK, U.S. and Canadian GDP figures.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released, see the FOREX FORUM.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Thu 14 Dec
23:50 JP- Tankan Survey
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --23:50-- JP- Tankan Survey
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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