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German IFO Better. Final Jan EZ Steady vs. Flash Estimate. Active U.S. Calendar Tues.
|German IFO Better. Final Jan EZ Steady vs. Flash Estimate. Active U.S. Calendar Tues.|
25 February 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: North America: US- Case-Shiller, New Home Sales, Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, 2-yr Auction, API Data
| EURUSD 1.3735
|| U.S. 2.75% 0bp
|| North America:Higher|
| EURJPY 140.80
|| Bund 1.68% +1bp
|| DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6650
|| GILT 2.77% -1bp
|| FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 102.50
|| JGB 0.60% 0bp
|| Far East Close:Lower|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Case-Shiller, New Home Sales, Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed,
- Monday started off with a stronger than expected outcome in the bang closely followed German IFO Survey. Final January HIPC were low and in line with the flash estimates.
- The U.S. Markit Service PMI was weak and in direct conflict with its Manufacturing Index last week.
- As for U.S. data generally, we have become weary of weather as an explanation for why U.S. economic data has been weaker than expected. Poor weather is not a credible excuse for recent data misses. We feel the underlying data must be weaker than expected.
- Thursday will see the second round of (postponed) testimony by new Fed Chair Yellen before the Senate. Her prepared testimony should not be changed, but we wonder if in light of recent data she will temper her economic outlook.
- In general, the Fed is expected to remain on its USD 10bln per meeting taper schedule, but will continue to pursue an ultra-easy short-term monetary policy well into the future. Obviously, policy will be data-dependent.
- German Retail Sales and Employment data over the week will be closely scrutinized. Eurozone HICP (CPI) data have been a high impact item recently and certainly will be watched for any more signs of ongoing disinflationary pressures. A couple more U.S. pieces of Housing data are due over the period along with Senate testimony by Janet Yellen. U.S. sentiment surveys are due as well along with UK, U.S. and Canadian GDP figures.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released, see the FOREX FORUM.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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