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More Poor U.S. Data. BOE's McCafferty: Rate Hike Possible in 2Q15
|More Poor U.S. Data. BOE's McCafferty: Rate Hike Possible in 2Q15|
26 February 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: Europe: GB- GDP, US- Weekly Mortgage Statistics, New Homes Sales, Weekly Crude, 5-yr Auction,
| EURUSD 1.3745
|| U.S. 2.70% -5bp
|| North America: Mixed|
| EURJPY 140.97
|| Bund 1.65% -3bp
|| DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6685
|| GILT 2.75% -2bp
|| FTSE: Lower|
| USDJPY 102.13
|| JGB 0.59% -1bp
|| Far East Close:Lower|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: GB- GDP, US- New Home Sales
- The U.S. Tuesday saw disappointing Consumer Confidence data from the Conference Board and a considerably weaker than expected Richmond Fed Survey. We wonder for how much longer equity markets will be able to shake off the recent run of weaker than expected U.S. data.
- The Bank of England's McCafferty stirred the markets with a comment that the first BOE rate hike COULD come in 2Q15. That is hardly a surprising point of view because as we have observed here numerous times, the U.K. economy appears to be one of the furthest along on the path to recovery.
- Thursday will see the second round of (postponed) testimony by new Fed Chair Yellen before the Senate. Her prepared testimony should not be changed, but we wonder if in light of recent data she will temper her economic outlook. In general, the Fed is expected to remain on its USD 10bln per meeting taper schedule, but will continue to pursue an ultra-easy short-term monetary policy well into the future. Obviously, policy will be data-dependent.
- German Retail Sales and Employment data over the week will be closely scrutinized. Eurozone HICP (CPI) data have been a high impact item recently and certainly will be watched for any more signs of ongoing disinflationary pressures. A couple more U.S. pieces of Housing data are due over the period along with Senate testimony by Janet Yellen. UK, U.S, and Canadian GDP figures are due.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released, see the FOREX FORUM.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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