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Wednesday February 26, 2014 - 11:04:26 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK second reading of Q4 GDP in line, German consumer confidence hits 7-yr high

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK second reading of Q4 GDP in line, German consumer confidence hits 7-yr high
Wed, 26 Feb 2014 5:19 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
BoE officials comment on market forecasts for the interest rate outlook
Shanghai Copper hits multi-month lows amid concerns related to China's property market
Swiss insurers continue to report better than expected FY results
Russian Ruble weakens to record low as Ukraine's Central Bank again devalues
UK Q4 Q/Q GDP unrevised

***Economic Data***
- (DE) GERMANY MAR GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 8.5 V 8.2E
- (UK) Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.7% V 0.7%E; Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.8%E
- (UK) Q4 PRELIMINARY PRIVATE CONSUMPTION Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.6%E; GOVERNMENT SPENDING Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.5%E
- (UK) Q4 PRELIMINARY TOTAL BUSINESS INVESTMENT Q/Q: 2.4% V 1.3%E; Y/Y: 8.5% V -2.4% PRIOR
- (CH) SWISS JAN UBS CONSUMPTION INDICATOR: 1.44 V 1.80 PRIOR
- (ES) SPAIN DEC TOTAL MORTGAGE LENDING Y/Y: -26.3% V -26.9% PRIOR; HOUSE MORTGAGE APPROVALS Y/Y: -30.1% V -27.4% PRIOR
- (IT) ITALY JAN HOURLY WAGES M/M: 0.6% V 0.0% PRIOR; Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.3% PRIOR

Fixed Income:
(IT) ITALY DEBT AGENCY (TESORO) SELLS 8.5B IN 6-MONTH BILLS; AVG YIELD 0.455% (record low) V 0.59% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER: 1.44X V 1.52X PRIOR
(SE) Sweden sells SEK3.5B in 10-year Bonds; Yield: 2.2071%

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.4%, FTSE 100 -0.4% at 6,800, DAX -0.3% at 9,673, CAC-40 -0.5% at 4,394, IBEX-35 -0.2% at 10,226, FTSE MIB flat at 20,465, SMI -0.5% at 8,467, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 1,849]

Market Focal Points: Equity markets open mixed in line with price action in Asia and then generally move lower, Swiss Life rises on better than expected results, Airbus reported FY earnings above ests, Laxness issued profit warning, Tax evasion concerns weigh on shares of Credit Suisse

By Sector
Financials [Credit Suisse CSGN.CH -2% (tax allegations by US officials); Swiss Life SLHN.CH +5% (FY results above ests)]
Consumer Discretionary [Greggs GRG.UK -6% (FY profits declined y/y), ITV ITV.UK -3.5% (cautious outlook), Taylor Wimpey TW.UK -3% (reaffirmed outlook); AB Inbev +1% (Q4 profits above ests), Hays HAS.UK +1% (H1 profits rose y/y)
Industrials [Weir Group WEIR.UK +4% (FY outlook), Airbus +1.5% (FY profits above ests, raised dividend), Bouygues EN.FR +1.5% (FY op profit rose y/y), DSM DSM.NL +1% (raised dividend)]
Basic Materials/Resources [Holcim HOLN.CH +1% (Q4 profits above ests)]
Energy [SMA Solar S92.DE +8% (investment agreement), REC Silicon REC.NO +7% (jv agreement in China)]
Stoxx50 Sectors [Utilities -1.3%, Telecom -0.2%, Consumer Cyclical -0.2%, Financials -0.2%, Industrials -0.2%; Technology +0.7%, Basic Materials flat Consumer Non-Cyclical flat, Energy flat]

Speakers:
China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE): Seeing large net fund inflows currently; Recent Yuan two-way movement is due to readjustment in market trading strategies
BOEs Dale: Don't know when bank rate will rise, reiterates not planning to raise rates anytime soon; First hike to be dependent on economic recovery
Denmark budget office: Guides 2013 budget gap wider to 1.3% of GDP v 0.2% in Dec; Sees lower tax rev hurting public account by DKK22B
Czech Deputy Fin Min Gregor: Foreign debt issuance possible starting in Q4
Bank of Spain: Sees continuation of moderate growth in Q1; Data on consumer spending is mixed
(UK) BOEs Broadbent: UK openness will help productivity recover; UK productivity unusually weak since crisis

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Major currencies remained little changed ahead of the European open, EUR/USD stayed just off its lows around 1.3740 after the open. GBP/USD remained around the middle of its recent daily range, 1.6670 in early trading. Compressed ranges continue to trend across the majors and the fx markets await the next catalyst.

- USD/CHF also remains range bound, 0.8882-0.8862 though slightly more dollar strength than yesterday's session. .

- In the Ukraine, the central bank again cut the rate of the Hryvnia to 9.4269 from 9.0377. Last change came on February 6th.

Political/In the Papers:
(CN) China Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security official: Pension fund has no shortfall in payment; Denies speculation by some economists of CNY13T shortage of pension fund in China in 2013.
(CN) China Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security official: Pension fund has no shortfall in payment
(CN) Some banks in Guangzhou and Shenzhen raise mortgage rates
(CN) China fuel price change window may start on Feb 28th (local time); Analysts estimate to raise approx CNY250/ton for gasoline and CNY200/ton for diesel
Ukraine Central bank cuts USD/UAH rate to 9.4269 v 9.0377 prior
(EU) ECB sees no consensus for March policy change; March move is possible if the data and Draghi support it; Negative deposit could send problematic signal; New inflation forecasts not likely to surprise
(DE) German Constitutional Court strikes down 3% of vote threshold required for parties to get into the European Parliament
(CN) China PBOC offical: Current liquidity is excessive and is being driven by inflow

**Looking Ahead***
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell Bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Feb 21st: No est v % pror
- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell OFZ Bonds
- 08:00 (LX) ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg) speaks at Renminbi Forum in Luxembourg
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Preliminary Trade Balance: No est v $1.7B prior
- 10:00 (US) Jan New Home Sales: No est v 414K prior
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly Currency Flows
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 12:00 (FR) France Jan Net Change Jobseekers: No est v +10.2K prior; Total Jobseekers: No est v 3.303M prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 2-Year Floating Rate Notes Reopening
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 5-Year Notes

- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 19.9% prior; Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 35.5% prior
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Jan Trade Balance: No est v 523M prior; Exports: No est v 4.76B prior; Imports: No est v 4.2B prior
- 19:30 (US) Fed's Pianalto speaks on Career in Wooster, Ohio

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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