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Friday February 28, 2014 - 11:19:01 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro Zone Feb advance CPI data dims prospect for any near term ECB rate cut

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro Zone Feb advance CPI data dims prospect for any near term ECB rate cut
Fri, 28 Feb 2014 5:23 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- China CNY currency continued to fall and registered its largest one-day drop since April 2007 (almost the full 1% of its daily trading band) to an overall 10-month low against the greenback
- (JP) Japan Jan Preliminary Industrial Production data hits its highest level since May 2011 (MoM: 4.0% vs. 2.8%e)
- Japan Jan Jobless Rate in line at 3.7% with CPI YoY at 1.4% vs. 1.3%e
- Germany Jan Retail Sales handily beats expectations (MoM: 2.5% v 1.0%e)
- Swedish Q4 GDP blows out expectations (QoQ: 1.7% v 0.6%e)
- Euro Zone Feb advance CPI data dims prospect for any near term ECB rate cut
(YoY reading moves off 4-year lows at 0.8% vs. 0.7%)


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Jan Annualized Housing Starts: 1.012Me v 1.055M prior; Y/Y: 15.0%e v 18.0% prior; Construction Orders Y/Y: No est v 4.9% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Jan M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 6.4% v 6.2% prior; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 8.2% v 6.4%e
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Feb 24th (RUB): 8.11T v 8.10T prior
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales for week ending Feb 9th (y/y): 7.3% v 6.4% prior
- (DE) Germany Jan Retail Sales M/M: 2.5% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: +0.9% v -1.7%e
- (UK) Feb Nationwide House Price M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 9.4% v 9.0%e
- (FI) Finland Dec Final Trade Balance: -583M v -570M prior
- (FI) Finland Jan House Price Index M/M: -0.5% v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.3% v 1.1% prior
- (TH) Thailand Jan Current Account Balance: $0.2B v $1.7Be; Trade Account Balance: -$0.8B v +$2.0B prior; Overall Trade Balance: +$575M v -$250M prior; Exports Y/Y: -1.5% v +1.8% prior; Imports Y/Y: -12.9% v -9.3% prior
- (TH) Thailand Jan Business Sentiment Index: 45.4 v 45.0 prior
- (FR) France Jan Consumer Spending M/M: -2.1% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v +0.8%e
- (FR) France Jan PPI M/M: -0.6 v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.2% v -0.1%e
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 198.3K v 194.1K tons prior
- (ES) Spain Feb Preliminary CPI Y/Y: -0.1% v +0.1%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.1%e
- (CH) Swiss Feb KOF Leading Indicator: 2.03 v 2.00e
- (DK) Denmark Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.5% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 1.2%e
- (TR) Turkey Jan Trade Balance: -$6.8B v -$7.2Be
- (EU) ECB 165M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 431M prior; 28.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 27.4B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Q4 GDP Q/Q: 1.7% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 1.1%e
- (SE) Sweden Jan PPI M/M: -0.1% v +1.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.3% prior
- (SE) Sweden Dec Non-Manual Workers Wages Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.1% prior
- (IT) Italy Jan Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 12.9% v 12.7%e (record high)
- (IT) Italy Q4 Quarterly Unemployment Rate: 12.6% v 12.6%e
- (PL) Poland Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.5% prelim; Y/Y: 2.7%v 2.7% prelim
- (NO) Norway Feb Unemployment Rate: 2.9% v 2.9%e
- (NO) Norway Jan Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e
- (NO) Norway Central bank (Norges) Mar Bank Daily FX Purchases: 0M v 0M prior (5th consecutive month of no planned purchases)
- (CZ) Czech Jan M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.5 v 4.8% prior
- (ES) Spain Dec Current Account Balance: 2.1B v 0.9B prior
- (PH) Philippines Jan Bank Lending Y/Y: 15.9% v 16.3% prior; Bank Lending Net of RRPs Y/Y: 17.1% v 16.4% prior
- (PH) Philippine Jan Money Supply Y/Y: 38.6% v 32.7% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Unemployment Rate: 12.0% v 12.0%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Advance CPI Estimate Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.7%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.8%e

- (GR) Greece Dec Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -6.1% v +2.9% prior; Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -6.7% v 0.0% prior
- (BE) Belgium Jan Unemployment Rate:8.5 % v 8.4% prior
- (IT) Italy Feb Preliminary CPI NIC incl. tobacco M/M: -0.1% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.7%e
- (IT) Italy Feb Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.3% v -2.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.7% prior

Fixed Income:
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR800M in I/L 2025, 2038 and 2050 Bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [FTSE 100 -0.1% at 6,80
5, DAX +0.1% at 9,594, CAC-40 -0.3% at 4,384, IBEX-35 -1% at 10,058, FTSE MIB -0.3% at 20,268, SMI +0.1% at 8,474, S&P 500 Futures -0.2% at 1,851]

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets trade mixed following heavy week of corporate earnings , Bayer's Q4 results below ests, Spain's IBEX-35 underperforms following earnings from FCC and share placement for Bankia

By Sector
- Financials
[Erste bank EBS.AT -6% (FY profits declined, cut dividend); Serco SRP.UK +9% (CEO change), Old Mutual OML.UK +4% (FY profit +15%, dividend +14%)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Pearson PSON.UK -7% (FY results lower y/y, restructuring program), IAG.UK IAG.UK -2% (FY profits below ests), USG USG.NL +7% (Q4 profits rose y/y, raised dividend) , Rightmove RMV.UK +4% (raised dividend), William Hill WMH.UK +2% (FY sales rose y/y)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Recticel REC.BE -2% (FY profits declined y/y); Bekaert BEKB.BE +4% (FY profits rose y/y)
- Healthcare [Galapagos GLPG.BE -9% (clinical update), Transgene TNG.FR -5% (capital raise); Bayer BAYN.DE flat (FY results below ests amid negative currency impact)]
- Energy [Vopak VPK.NL -4% (Q4 op profit declined y/y); Nordex NDX1.DE (swung to operating profit in FY13)]
- Industrials [FCC FCC.ES -5% (FY EBITDA below ests), Technicas Reunidas TRE.ES -4% (FY profits below ests)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Industrials -0.4%, Telecom -0.3%, Consumer Cyclical -0.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.2%, , Financials -0.1%; Utilities +0.7%, Technology +0.4%, Basic Materials +0.4%, Energy +0.2%]

Speakers:
- Ukraine acting President Turchynov stated that Russia was directly involved in events in Crimea.
Parliament rejected separatists' moves and approved resolution to seek international monitoring. He urged Russia to halt moves which undermine Ukrainian territorial integrity.
- Russian Black Sea fleet denied any action at Crimea airport (refers to earlier reports that unidentified armed men carrying Russian Navy flags seized Simferopol international airport (Crimea)
- Ukraine Central bank Gov stated that it had enough FX and gold reserves enough to service debt. IMF delegation to visit Ukraine in early March
- Ukraine Acting PM Yatsenyuk: Ready to meet all IMF demands when its mission begins next week (early March). Hoped for international aid in the near future to increase its reserves and stabilize its situation
- Reports circulated that Ukraine was limiting access to foreign currency deposits
- Cyprus govt spokesperson: to resubmit privatization bill to Parliament
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Jansson: Fair to believe that CPI will rise as employment and pay increase
- S&P raised Belgium outlook to stable from negative; affirms sovereign rating at AA
- Japan Lower House passed its 2014 budget, as expected
- Japan Pension Fund (GPIF) to begin investing in infrastructure projects; to invest 280B over 5 years.
To jointly invest with Development Bank of Japan and Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System. It noted that its value of assets at end Dec was 128.6T (record level) and +4% q/q
- Vietnam Central Bank's Hong commented that it would maintain current interest rate policy and in line with targeted 7% for 2014. It might remove 7% cap on Dong currency Deposit Rate when macro-economic situation stabilized

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD was on the defensive throughout the session with USD Index at fresh 2014 low as it approached 79.85
- The EUR/USD maintained a hold above the 1.37 level following the better German Jan Retail Sales data and the surged above 1.38 after Euro Zone Feb Advance CPI data came in above expectations. The current downtrend line for the whole financial crises comes in just under the 1.3890 area.
- Greece 10-year Govt bond yield moves below 7.00% level for lowest level since May 2010

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Draghi: Not seeing any current evidence that consumers have been postponing plans for expenditures, reiterates EMU is clearly not in deflation
- (EU) ECB's Knot (Netherlands): Monetary policy should perhaps extend the horizon beyond the typical two-year time frame
- (GR) Greece Dep Fin Min Staikouras: Greece Finance Ministry to strengthen liquidity in the Greek bond market, including through bond exchanges; affirms plans to gradually return to international money markets - Greek press; Will first look to offer 5-yr bonds
(CY) Parliament in Cyprus has rejected the recommended privatization plans that are a key condition sought by foreign lenders as part of bailout agreement
- (UK) BoE's Miles: Neutral rate policy level is now lower than 5% and could be around 3%, risk aversion has driven down overall rates
-USD/CNY: (CN) Senior China govt official: recent Yuan currency fall is tolerable - financial press
- (JP) BOJ board member Shirai: Likely to take some time to meet 2% inflation target; 2-yr time horizon should have flexibility
- Ukraine/Crimea situation remained uneasy following late night reports that a group of pro-Russia men "similarly equipped" as one who took over Crimea parliament yesterday and brandishing banners of Russian Navy have taken control of Simferopol airport just before the arrival of Ukraine govt officials to the region.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (AT) ECB's Nowotny at Vienna conference
- (DE) Germany Sovereign Debt Rating May Be Published by Moody's
- (LX) Luxembourg Sovereign Debt Rating May Be Published by Moody's
- (AT) Austria Sovereign Debt Rating May Be Published by Moody's
- 05:30 (IN) India Jan Fiscal Deficit (INR): No est v 68.3B prior
- 05:45 (EU) German Fin Min Schaeuble's Keynote speech in Frankfurt
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Jan Industrial Production M/M: No est v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.2% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Jan Retail Sales M/M: No est v -5.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.8% prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces weekly 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell 3.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Feb 9th: No est v $293.8B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (IN) India Q4 GDP Y/Y: No est v 4.8% prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Jan Trade Balance (ZAR): No est v 2.8B prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Jan Budget Balance (ZAR): No est v 30.8B prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Jan PPI Manufacturing M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.8% prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Jan Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.7% prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Jan Manufacturing Index Y/Y: No est v 0.2% prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Jan Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 7.0% prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Jan Total Copper Production: No est v 525.7K tons prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Feb Inflation Expectations Survey: No est v 0.5% prior
- 08:00 (DE) Germany's Buch speaks in Frankfurt
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) could announce upcoming bond auctions
- 08:30 (EU) BoE' Gov Carney,Bundesbank's Dombret,Germany's BaFin regulator Koenig in Frankfurt
- 08:30 (US) Q4 Preliminary GDP Annualized Q/Q: 2.5%e v 3.2% advance; Personal Consumption: 2.9%e v 3.3% (*Note 2nd of three readings)
- 08:30 (US) Q4 Preliminary GDP Price Index: 1.3%e v 1.3% advance; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.1%e v 1.1% advance
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec GDP M/M: -0.3%e v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.6% prior; Quarterly GDP Annualized: 2.6%e v 2.7% prior
- 08:30 (BR) Brazil Jan Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): No est v -13.6B prior; Primary Budget Balance: No est v 10.4B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: No est v 33.8% prior
- 09:00 (US) Feb ISM Milwaukee: 51.0e v 52.8 prior
- 09:45 (US) Feb Chicago Purchasing Manager: 56.4e v 59.6 prior
- 09:55 (US) Feb Final University of Michigan Confidence: 81.2e v 81.2 prelim

- 10:00 (US) Jan Pending Home Sales M/M: +1.9%e v -8.7% prior; Y/Y: -10.8%e v -6.1% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 2.498T prior
- 10:00 (DE) ECB's Lautenschlaeger (Germany) speaks in Frankfurt
- 10:15 (US) Fed members Stein, Kocherlakota, Evans and Plosser speak in New York
- 10:30 (UK) BOE's Gov Carney on panel at Bundesbank symposium
- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Jan National Unemployment Rate: No est v 8.4% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: No est v 9.7% prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.00-1.25B in Notes
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Construction Activity Mor/M: No est v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.2% prior
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Jan YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v -375.3B prior
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Feb Trade Balance: No est v $735M prior; Exports Y/Y: No est v -0.2% prior; Imports Y/Y: No est v -0.9% prior
- 20:00 (CN) China Feb Manufacturing PMI: No est v 50.5 prior

 

 

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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