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Global PMIs, Central Banks and Employment data for Canada and the U.S. due this week
|Global PMIs, Central Banks and Employment data for Canada and the U.S. due this week|
3 March 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: CN/AU- PMI. Europe: EZ/DE/FR/GB- PMI, North America: US- PMIs. Personal Income. Construction Spending
| EURUSD 1.3795
|| U.S. 2.72% +5bp
|| North America:Lower|
| EURJPY 140.54
|| Bund 1.62% +6bp
|| DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6715
|| GILT 2.72% +4bp
|| FTSE: Lower|
| USDJPY 101.90
|| JGB 0.59% 0bp
|| Far East Close:Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CN/AU- PMIs, EZ/DE/FR/GB- PMI, US- PMIs, Personal Income
- We are leery of weather as an excuse for the recent weakness in U.S. data over the past several months. The explanation might have made sense for some parts of the country, but the weather excuse has started to ring hollow after we probed a little deeper into the data
- Fed Chair Yellen appeared before the Senate Banking Committee last week. Her testimony originally scheduled for a couple of weeks ago had been postponed due to snow. .This time week she inserted some additional text acknowledging that the economy has turned weaker. She also cited this in her testimony.
- Bottom-line, we think the Fed will remain on its current taper schedule unless the economy weakens by a lot more, As for short-term policy, we feel it will be a lot more data-driven, so yes there has been a subtle change in the Fedís tone.
- We expect no change in European Central Bank policy this week. Flash Eurozone HICP (CPI) data ticked up in January. The final data usually do not change much from the flash release. Furthermore, the German Bundesbank clearly is not in favor of a rate cut. As far as I can tell, ECB policy is geared more to the needs and desires of Germany than the rest of the bloc. German data in the latest week generally came in stronger than anticipated.
- Markets are keeping a close watch on developments in Ukraine over the week. The concern is by how much Russia will interfere with the government change in that newly-independent country.
- The first week of the month always features the release of global PMI data and they will be watched closely as a current read on how individual economies and regions are performing. The key U.S. PCE deflator is set for Monday. This is the Fedís preferred measure of inflation.. This week also sees central pbank policy meetings foe Australia, Canada, the U.K. and the ECB. The tail end of the week features key U.S. and Canadian employment data.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released, see the FOREX FORUM.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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