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Monday March 3, 2014 - 16:23:47 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Crimea Crisis Tanks Global Markets US Market Update: Crimea Crisis Tanks Global Markets
Mon, 03 Mar 2014 11:06 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (RO) Romania Feb International Reserves: $34.9B v $36.0B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Feb Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: -3.1%v -6.8% prior
- (CZ) Czech Feb Budget Balance (CZK): 50.0B v 45.0B prior
- (PT) Portugal Jan Industrial Production M/M: +0.1% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.9% v 5.7% prior
- (PT) Portugal Jan Retail Sales M/M: +6.6 v -5.7% prior; Y/Y: +2.4 v -0.4% prior
- (US) Jan Personal Income: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Personal Spending: 0.4% v 0.1%e
- (US) Jan PCE Deflator M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e
- (US) Jan PCE Core M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e
- (CA) Canada Jan Industrial Product Price M/M: 1.4% v 0.5%e; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 2.6% v 1.5%e
- (SG) Singapore Feb Purchasing Managers Index: 50.9 v 50.3e; Electronics Sector Index: 51.2 v 51.6e
- (US) Feb Final Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 57.1 v 56.7e; highest since May 2010
- (US) Feb ISM Manufacturing: 53.2 v 52.0e; Prices Paid: 60.0 v 57.4e
- (US) Jan Construction Spending M/M: +0.1% v -0.5%e
- (MX) Mexico Jan Total Remittances: $1.6B v $1.5Be

- With global markets in turmoil this morning as events move very quickly in Ukraine, US indices are seeing a restrained pullback in heavy volume. The VIX has pushed out to one-month highs around 16%. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.90%, the S&P500 is down 0.82% and the Nasdaq is down 0.83%.

- Fallout from Russia's invasion and occupation of Ukraine's Crimea region is slamming European markets. Russia's MICEX index fell 11%, while the DAX was down as much as 3% and the CAC fell as much as 2.5%. The ruble was in free fall, prompting the Russian central bank to raised its key lending rate on Monday to 7% from 5.5%. Russia's central bank has sold up to $10 billion in reserves to support the ruble. USD/RUB had been around 37.5, at multi-year highs, before recovering slightly. Spot gold is up 2.4% this morning, above $1,350.

- The euro has lost some altitude as ECB President Draghi testifies this morning before the European Parliament. There is an ECB rate decision on Thursday and Draghi has stayed away from making hard comments about policy. Draghi reiterated risks go up the longer inflation stays low, low inflation in core terms is mostly due to the process of adjustment in peripheral Europe. EUR/USD briefly tested below 1.3750 but has regained some ground.

- The February ISM manufacturing data was slightly better than expected, rising to 53.2 from January's nine-month low of 51.3. The key new orders component saw solid gains, rising to 54.5 from 51.2 prior. Note that the weakness in December and January was chiefly seen in the new orders component. The January Personal Income and Spending data saw better-than-expected results, with little impact seen from the cold.

- February auto sales numbers are the latest economic data to be impacted by winter weather. Ford and GM both saw sales decline on a y/y basis, although total unit sales were more or less in line with expectations. Sales executives from both firms cited the weather as restraining sales. Chrysler's sales grew 11%, and executives said the weather only helped sales of their Jeep line, which were up 47% y/y. Nissan's sales grew 16% y/y, although this was a bit shy of expectations.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Feb New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v 3.2% prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Feb IMEF Manufacturing Index (Seasonally Adj): 50.0e v 49.7 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index (Seasonally Adj): 52.5e v 53.5 prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Feb IMEF Manufacturing Index (Unadj): No est v 49.2 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index (Unadj): No est v 52.0 prior
- 15:00 - (US) Feb Domestic Vehicle Sales: 11.90Me v 11.94M prior; Total Vehicle Sales: 15.40Me v 15.16M prior
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Feb Monetary Base: No est v 200.9T prior
- 22:30 (AU) Australia Central Bank (RBA) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Cash Rate Target unchanged at 2.50%




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