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U.S. ADP and Bank of Canada Policy Decision Wed. Ukraine tension eases. RBA Steady

U.S. ADP and Bank of Canada Policy Decision Wed. Ukraine tension eases. RBA Steady
March 5, 2014 00:00 gmt
  calendar
CALENDAR  Far East: AU- GDP, EZ/DE/FR- final Service PMI's, EZ- Retail Sales, GDP.US- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Jobs, final Markit PMI, ISM Service PMI, Weekly Crude, Beige Book, Bank of Canada Decision



Spot
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
 EURUSD 1.3734  1.3690
 U.S. 2.68% +8bp
  North America: Higher
 EURJPY 140.29
 139.84
 Bund 1.60% +4 bp
 DAX: Higher
 GBPUSD 1.6675
 1.6598
 GILT 2.70% +4bp
 FTSE: Higher
 USDJPY 102.14
 102.14
  JGB 0.61% +3bp  Far East Close:Higher

HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: AU- GDP, EZ/DE/FR- final Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales, GDP, US- ADP Jobs, final Markit PMI, ISM Service PMI, Weekly Crude, Beige Book, Bank of Canada

  • Wednesday looks to be an active session with the second round of PMIs (Service) set for release. Also the U.S. ADP Private Jobs report is scheduled. These data always shape expectations foe the Non-Farm Payroll Data on Friday.
  • The session on Wednesday will see the latest Bank of Canada policy decision. No rate changes are seen, but a less dovish policy statement should be anticipated.  .  
  • Tensions in Ukraine eased Tuesday as Russian President Putin  ordered his troops to step back in Ukraine. We have no doubt that he still plans to control the nation from behind the scenes, but the visible presence of Russian troops has been reduced and the financial markets have been responding positively to this development..
  • No change in policy by the RBA early in the day  was as expected. Gov Stevens suggested that policy is unlikely to be changed in the medium term, although he reinserted concern about the level of the AUD saying "The exchange rate remains high by historical standards"
  • No rate change by the ECB is seen Thursday, although there is chatter about a reduction in the sterilization of asset purchases. Flash Eurozone HICP data ticked up in January. Also, the German Bundesbank  is not in favor of a rate cut.  We feel ECB policy is geared more to the needs of Germany than the rest of the bloc. German data recently has been mostly better than  seen.A BOE decision is also due Thursday.
  • The end of the week features key U.S. and Canadian jobs data. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released,  see the FOREX FORUM.


FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM


John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
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All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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