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U.S. ADP and Bank of Canada Policy Decision Wed. Ukraine tension eases. RBA Steady
|U.S. ADP and Bank of Canada Policy Decision Wed. Ukraine tension eases. RBA Steady|
March 5, 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR Far East: AU- GDP, EZ/DE/FR- final Service PMI's, EZ- Retail Sales, GDP.US- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Jobs, final Markit PMI, ISM Service PMI, Weekly Crude, Beige Book, Bank of Canada Decision
| EURUSD 1.3734
|| U.S. 2.68% +8bp
|| North America: Higher|
| EURJPY 140.29
|| Bund 1.60% +4 bp
|| DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6675
|| GILT 2.70% +4bp
|| FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 102.14
|| JGB 0.61% +3bp
|| Far East Close:Higher|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: AU- GDP, EZ/DE/FR- final Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales, GDP, US- ADP Jobs, final Markit PMI, ISM Service PMI, Weekly Crude, Beige Book, Bank of Canada
- Wednesday looks to be an active session with the second round of PMIs (Service) set for release. Also the U.S. ADP Private Jobs report is scheduled. These data always shape expectations foe the Non-Farm Payroll Data on Friday.
- The session on Wednesday will see the latest Bank of Canada policy decision. No rate changes are seen, but a less dovish policy statement should be anticipated. .
- Tensions in Ukraine eased Tuesday as Russian President Putin ordered his troops to step back in Ukraine. We have no doubt that he still plans to control the nation from behind the scenes, but the visible presence of Russian troops has been reduced and the financial markets have been responding positively to this development..
- No change in policy by the RBA early in the day was as expected. Gov Stevens suggested that policy is unlikely to be changed in the medium term, although he reinserted concern about the level of the AUD saying "The exchange rate remains high by historical standards"
- No rate change by the ECB is seen Thursday, although there is chatter about a reduction in the sterilization of asset purchases. Flash Eurozone HICP data ticked up in January. Also, the German Bundesbank is not in favor of a rate cut. We feel ECB policy is geared more to the needs of Germany than the rest of the bloc. German data recently has been mostly better than seen.A BOE decision is also due Thursday.
- The end of the week features key U.S. and Canadian jobs data. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released, see the FOREX FORUM.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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