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Wednesday March 5, 2014 - 11:08:29 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Major European PMI Services beat; China confident on 7.5% growth in 2014

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Major European PMI Services beat; China confident on 7.5% growth in 2014
Wed, 05 Mar 2014 5:22 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- (AU) Australia Q4 GDP comes in at 7-month high (QoQ: 0.8% vs. 0.7%e)
- (EU) Major European PMI Services mostly beat expectations. Italy moves back to expansion while France languishes in contraction territory. Germany and overall Euro Zone at 3-year highs, Spain lags.
- (UR) Quiet pause in Ukraine tensions after Putin's press conference on Tuesday. EU Leaders meet tomorrow in Brussels to discuss the situation
- (RU) Russia to maintain its planned Eurobond issue for 2014
- (CN) China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): Confident to achieve official target of 7.5% for 2014 but hitting lower level of 7.0% would be sufficient. Will take action if showing downward trend
- (EU) Soc Gen analyst: ECB ending its sterilization of bond purchases under the bank's Securities Markets Program (SMP) is not priced in for March. Ending sterilization would more than double excess liquidity and could push Eonia below 10bps.
- (CN) China Finance Ministry (MOF) sets 2014 official 2014 GDP growth target at 7.50%(unchanged from past two years but adds it is elastic ; Maintains CPI at 3.5%
- (CN) China Feb HSBC/Markit Services PMI registers its 25th month of expansion (51.0 vs. 50.7 prior

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- EUR/USD pair was steady and approx. 150 pips below the pivotal 6-year downtrend line at 1.3890. Market participants believed that the Euro should stay under selling pressure ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting. The focus will be on the staff projections. Inflation has been running at half the rate of the ECB's 2.0% mandate. Should the projections suggest inflation undershooting target on the 2-year projection horizon, then the ECB will likely signal an easier monetary policy stance to come.

***Equities***
- European Equity markets open lower following sharp gains seen on Tuesday's session.

- Indices [Stoxx50 -0.2%, FTSE 100 -0.4% at 6,795, DAX -0.2% at 9,569, CAC-40 -0.3% at 4,384, IBEX-35 +0.4% at 10,160, FTSE MIB +0.2% at 20,512, SMI -0.1% at 8,438, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,871]

- By Sector
Consumer Discretionary [Carrefour CA.FR +1% (reported FY profit growth); Playtec PTEC.UK -9% (share placement), Adidas ADS.DE -0.5% (cautious outlook), Carl Zeiss AFX.DE -1.5% (ex-dividend), Michael Page MPI.UK -1% (FY profit declined)]
Financials [Admiral Group ADM.UK +5% (FY profits above ests), Standard Chartered STAN.UK +2.5% (FY profits in line, no mention of rights offering), Scor SCR.FR +1.5% (FY profits above ests, raised dividend)]
Industrials [Melrose MRO.UK -4% (FY sales declined)]
Energy [Subsea 7 SUBC.NO -5% (Q4 results below ests)]
Basic Materials/Resources [Salzgitter SZG.DE +3% (broker commentary); BHP BLT.UK -1.5% (ex-dividend)]
Stoxx50 sectors [Technology +0.4%, Utilities +0.3%, Telecom +0.2%, Consumer Cyclical flat; Basic Materials -0.9%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.6%, Industrials -0.5%, Energy -0.5%, Financials -0.1%]

- France's Carrefour: FY13 higher y/y, raises dividend, increases 2014 capex
- Adidas: Q4 results higher, but worried about currency impact in 2014, op margin turns positive
- Standard Chartered: FY13 results slightly lower y/y; Raises dividend 2%, loan impairments +35% y/y

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Feb Services PMI: 50.8 v 50.2 prior; 7th straight month of expansion
- (IN) India Feb HSBC/Markit Services: 48.8 v 48.3 prior; eight month high but its 8th consecutive month contraction
- (IT) Italy Feb PMI Services: 52.9 v 49.9e; first growth in four months and highest reading since March 2011
- (FR) France Feb Final PMI Services: 47.2 v 46.9e; confirms 4th straight contraction to an 8 month low
- (DE) Germany Feb Final PMI Services: 55.9 v 55.4e ; confirms 10th straight month of growth and highest since June 2011
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Final PMI Services: 52.6 v 51.7e (confirms 6th straight month of growth and highest final reading since June 2011; PMI Composite: 53.3 v 52.7e
- (UK) Feb PMI Services: 58.2 v 58.0e; 14th straight reading in expansion territory but lowest level since June 2013
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Retail Sales M/M: 1.6% v 0.8%e; Y/Y:+1.3 % v -0.2%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.5%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Q4 Preliminary Govt Expenditures Q/Q: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Household Consumption Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Gross Fix Capital Q/Q: 1.1% v 0.2%e

***Looking Ahead***
- Selective events in the coming hours
- All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 4.0B in 1% 2019 BOBLs; Avg Yield: % v 0.63% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.66x prior (Prior Feb 5th)
- (PL) Poland Central bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 2.50%
- 06:00 (US) Activist investor Carl Ichan on CNBC
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Feb 28th: No est -8.5% prior
- 07:00 (UK) PM Cameron Question Time in House of Commons
- 08:15 (US) Feb ADP Employment Change: +155Ke v +175K prior
- 08:15 (US) Revisions to the ADP National Employment Report
- 08:30 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble with Austria Fin Min Spindelegger in Berlin for talks
- 08:58 (US) Feb Final Markit PMI Services: No est v 52.7 prelim
- 10:00 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 1.00%
- 10:00 (US) Feb ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 53.5e v 54.0 prior
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 10:30 (US) Treasury Sec Lew testifies before Senate panel
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.25-2.75B in notes
- 14:00 (US) Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

 

 

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