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Wednesday March 5, 2014 - 16:27:15 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Diplomats Negotiate Ukraine Monitoring Mission, February ADP Misses the Mark US Market Update: Diplomats Negotiate Ukraine Monitoring Mission, February ADP Misses the Mark
Wed, 05 Mar 2014 11:11 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) leaves Base Rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected
- (IE) Ireland Feb Live Register Monthly Change: -2.5K v -2.3K prior; Unemployment Rate: 11.9% (lowest since Apr 2009) v 12.0% prior
- (CL) Chile Jan Economic Activity M/M: -0.6% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.9%e
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Feb 28th: +9.4% -8.5% prior
- (US) Feb ADP Employment Change: +139K v +155Ke
- (US) Feb Final Markit PMI Services: 53.3 v 52.7 prelim
- (MX) Mexico Feb Consumer Confidence Index: 84.5 v 85.0e
- (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) left Interest Rates unchanged at 1.00%, as expected
- (US) Feb ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 51.6 v 53.5e
- (US) DOE Crude: +1.43M v +1Me; Gasoline: -1.6M v -1Me; Distillate: +1.41M v -1e

- Trading in US equities has been choppy and unsettled this morning as traders reposition ahead of Friday's February jobs report. As of writing, the DJIA and S&P500 are down slightly, while the Nasdaq is up 0.14%.

- The disappointing February ADP data is dampening enthusiasm this morning, however markets are not over-reacting to the numbers. Numerous analysts are pointing out that the ADP has been 30-40% above its corresponding NFP data for months, making today's revisions a catch-up exercise. The miss in February and the January revision is being chalked up to weather. The February ISM services index was also a miss, and the employment component fell below 50, indicating contraction. Goldman Sachs reportedly lowered its February NFP forecast to +125K from +145K prior. ADP economist Mark Zandi put his NFP estimate at +130K.

- The situation in Ukraine remains cooler today and it appears more diplomatic maneuvering is ongoing to provide Russia with an "off ramp." There are reports that the Russians may have agreed to a German proposal for an OSCE mission in Ukraine. Around 35 unarmed military observers would visit Ukraine and Crimea to assess the situation through March 12th. US Secretary of State Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will be reportedly meeting for talks in Paris soon. In the US Congress, a sanctions package is moving quickly, and the Russians have threatened to confiscate US and European assets in Russia if it passes.

- FX trading was choppy overnight, with EUR/USD bouncing around between 1.3710 and 1.3745. As of writing the pair is around the higher side of this tight range. FX traders are waiting for tomorrow's ECB decision before committing to any big moves. USD/JPY made a run above 102.50 but came rapidly off this level as the dollar weakened slightly post-ISM non-manufacturing.

- Homebuilder Hovnanian is down 6% this morning, dragging down the other major homebuilders ~1-2% a piece. The company missed revenue expectations and racked up an unexpectedly large quarterly loss. The firm's contract cancellation rate crept up and its net contracts signed metric fell y/y. The firm's contract backlog did gain a bit y/y.

- Shares of Canadian Solar are down 8.2%, giving up all its pre-earnings gains, after the firm offered weak Q1 and FY14 revenue guidance. The firm saw very good y/y gains and the firm was upbeat in comments about its business outlook, however delays in recognition was pushing back booking revenues.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (DE) Germany Chancellor Merkel speaks at CDU Event in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania
- 14:00 (US) Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
- 19:00 (US) Fed's Fisher speaks in Mexico City
- 19:00 (CO) Colombia Feb CPI M/M: 0.6%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.1% prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Jan Trade Balance: A$100Me v A$468M prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Jan Retail Sales M/M: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior
- 20:15 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Dep Gov Macklem speaks in Toronto
- 20:30 (CA) Former Secretary of State Clinton speaks in Vancouver
- 20:30 (US) Fed's Williams speaks on the Economy in Seattle




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