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U.S. ADP Jobs Softer than Seen. U.S. and European PMIs Mixed. Bank of Canada steady
|U.S. ADP Jobs Softer than Seen. U.S. and European PMIs Mixed. Bank of Canada steady|
March 6, 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR AU- Trade, DE- Factory Orders, GB- Bank of England, European Central Bank. US- Productivity, Weekly Jobless, Factory Orders, Natural Gas, CA- Ivey PMI.
| EURUSD 1.3737
|| U.S. 2.69% +1bp
|| North America:Mixed|
| EURJPY 140.55
|| Bund 1.61% +1bp
|| DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6720
|| GILT 2.72% +2bp
|| FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 102.30
|| JGB 0.61% +1bp
|| Far East Close:Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: AU- Trade, DE- Factory Orders, GB- Bank of England, European Central Bank, US- Productivity, Weekly Jobless, Factory Orders, Natural Gas, CA- Ivey PMI
- No rate change by the ECB is seen on Thursday, although there is chatter about a reduction in the sterilization of asset purchases. Flash Eurozone HICP data ticked up in January. Also, the German Bundesbank is not in favor of a rate cut. We feel ECB policy is geared more to the needs of Germany than the rest of the bloc. German data recently has been mostly better than seen.A BOE decision is also due Thursday.
- U.S. Service PMI readings were mostly disappointing, especially the Services employment index, which can be a precursor of the Non-farm payroll report on Friday. The headline February ADP Private Jobs report was a touch weaker than expected. Also the January data were revised lower.
- PMI Service data from Europe today generally has been mixed. Eurozone January retail sales were stronger than expected while GDP was unrevised.
- The latest Bank of Canada policy decisions was for no changes, as expected..The central bank indicated that the economy remains on a slow and steady recovery path and that inflation is not an issue at present. .
- Tensions in Ukraine continue to ease after Russian President Putin ordered troops to step back in Ukraine. We have no doubt that he still plans to control the nation from behind the scenes.
- The end of the week features key U.S. and Canadian jobs data. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released, see the FOREX FORUM.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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