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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Markets await interest rate decisions from UK and EU; leaders meet to talk about Ukraine situation

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Markets await interest rate decisions from UK and EU; leaders meet to talk about Ukraine situation
Thu, 06 Mar 2014 5:23 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- (DE) European Commission: Germany's significant trade imbalance (heavier on exports) is a threat to the whole European economy; Need to grow domestic demand - Deutsche Welle
- (EU) Focus on ECB meeting with potential big day for euro bears if ECB delivered significant policy easing measures
- (DE) Kloeckner, fails to meet estimates, though promises to resume dividend in 2015; expecting stronger results in FY14
- (FR) France Q4 ILO much stronger than expected but chatter that it may be influenced by new methodology, EUR/USD initially un-excited.
- (DE) Deutsche Telkom records net loss, Rev beats expectations. Sees FY14 Rev a little higher, FCF down y/y
- (EU) According to Basel Committee bank capital shortfalls at 102 top banks under Basel III now 57.5B, down nearly half from prior results
- (CN) Smoke from the property bubble? China's largest property developer Vanke fails to meet expectations for FY13 (higher y/y), sees prices overheating in some cities in 2014.
- (US) Fed's Plosser (hawk, voter) reiterates weather impacting data and making it hard to read; backs his current forecasts
- (UK) Feb Halifax house prices come in significantly higher than estimates and over 1% higher than prior month's reading.
- (GR) If followed through could be a big negative for Greek industrials. European Commission concerned that Greece's plan to offer discount on electricity bills may be a form of a state subsidy, could take action to stop it - Greek press
- (ES) Spain to create 30B fund for banks' corporate loans - Spanish Press
- (IT) Banca Monte Paschi de Siena, shares halted after rising over 5% due to report in Italian press that Fondazione sold 8% stake to Och-Ziff. When they resume +9%
- (HU) Hungary Econ Min Varga affirms 2014 macro projects
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: BOJ policy is keeping Japan interest low; Difficult to suppress interest rates forever
- (ZA) In a worrisome sign after reporting Q4 unemployment at 24.1%, South Africa govt will extend unemployment benefits from 9-months to 12-months
- (KR) South Korea thought to make a $550M payment to Iran by Friday under interim nuclear deal - press
- (UR) Ukraine update: Central bank has been approved to buy bonds as a temporary measure to support liquidity. EU Leaders convene to go over Ukraine situation; Crimea will vote Sunday on staying as part of Ukraine or as part of Russia.

***Equities**
- EU Markets open higher, again outperforming. FTSE MIB highest level since mid 2011, while Stoxx600 hits highest level since 2008

- Indices [Stoxx50 +0.5%, FTSE 100 +0.1% at 6,782, DAX +0.3% at 9,567, CAC-40 +0.6% at 4,417, IBEX-35 +0.9% at 10,307, FTSE MIB +0.9% at 20,941, SMI +0.2% at 8,479, SMI +0.2% at 8,477, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 1,875]

***By Sector***
Financials [Aviva AV.UK +7% (FY profits rose y/y, raised dividend), Banca Montei Paschi BMPS.IT +5% (stake sale speculation), Schroders SDR.UK +5% (FY profits above ests), Man Group EMG.UK +3% (stock buyback)]
Consumer Discretionary [Prisa PRS.ES +16% (asset sale speculation), Aggreko AGK.UK +8% (FY results above ests), Bureau Veritas BVI.FR +8% (FY profits rose y/y, raised dividend), Moncler MONC.IT +3% (index addition), Air Berlin AB1.DE +3% (Feb traffic rose y/y), Betfair BET.UK +2% (raised outlook); Axel Springer SPR.DE -4% (FY profits below ests), JC Decaux DEC.FR -2% (Headline profits below ests), RTL Group RTL.BE -2% (FY sales below ests)]
Industrials [Bouygues EN.FR +8% (confirmed offer for SFR), Manz AG +3% (swung to FY profit, index addition); Balfour Beatty BBY.UK -8% (FY profits declined y/y), IMI IMI.UK -5% (cautious outlook)]
Basic Materials/Resources [Wacker Chemie WCH.DE +3% (broker commentary), Vedanta Resources VED.UK +3% (CEO change); Avocet Mining AVM.UK -10% (reported FY loss), Kloeckner KCO.DE -2% (Q4 results below ests)]
Healthcare [Merck KGAA MRK.DE -4% (cautious outlook)]
Telecom [Orange ORA.FR +6% (Q4 results), Inmarsat ISAT.UK +4% (raised dividend); Deutsche Telekom DTE.DE -3% (Q4 EBTIDA below ests)]
Technology [Logitech LOGN.CH +5% (raised outlook, announced buyback); Imagination Technologies IMG.UK -6% (lowered outlook)]
Energy [Faroe Petroleum FPM.UK +10% (oil/gas discovery)
Stoxx50 sectors [Telecom +0.8%, Financials +0.7%, Consumer Cyclical +0.4%, Industrials +0.3% , Energy +0.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.1%, Technology +0.05%; Utilities -0.2%, Basic Materials -0.1%]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- France had good results selling 7.99B v 7.0-8.0B indicated in its 2022,2024 and 2027 Oats offering. Yields were lower, biggest drop on the 2022 (1.86% v 1.94% prior, which also had the largest jump in bid-to-cover (3.61x v 3.10x prior)
- Spain had solid results selling 5.004B, slightly higher than indicated in 2017, 2019 and 2024 bonds, all average yields were significantly lower and bid-to-covers higher.

- For EUR/USD the focus was on the ECB and its rate decision and press conference. Overall price action is likely to be volatile and potential for whipsaw developments. Overall market was contemplating a potential big day for euro bears if ECB delivered significant policy easing measures. The EUR/USD 6-year downtrend line come in at 1.3890 area and should see significant headwinds in breaking above that level. There should be some large Euro buy-stops building above which would see a test of 1.40 quite quickly.
- AUD/USD spiked up about 50pips above $0.9030 on strong retail sales/trade figures from Australia. Prior moves into the 0.90 area had seen some verbal intervention from RBA officials.
- JPY saw some moderate selling on the GPIF reform reports, with USD/JPY also rising about 50pips above 102.70 from session lows.

***Key Economic Data***
- UN Foods and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Feb Food Price Index: 208.1 v 203.4 prior
- (CZ) Czech Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 1.9% v 1.6% advance; Y/Y: 1.3% v 0.8% advance
- (HU) Hungary Jan Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: +3.1% v -1.8% prior; Y/Y: 6.1% v 5.0%e
- (EU) ECB 149M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 837M prior; 27.3B parked in deposit facility vs. 27.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Feb Average House Prices (SEK): 2.003M v 2.245M prior
- (NL) Netherlands Feb CPI M/M: +0.4 v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.4% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Feb CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.6% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.8%e

***Looking Ahead***
- 07:00 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target (APT) unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- 07:00 (UK) Potential Bank of England (BOE) Statement
- 07:30 (US) Feb Challenger Job Cuts: No est v 45.1K prior; Y/Y: No est v 11.6% prior
- 07:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to keep key rates unchanged; Expected to leave Main Refi Rate unchanged at 0.25%; Expected to leave Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at 0.00%; Expected to leave Marginal Lending Facility unchanged at 0.75%
- 08:30 (EU) ECB'S Draghi holds post rate decision press conference
- 08:30 (US) Q4 Final Nonfarm Productivity: 2.2%e v 3.2% prelim; Unit Labor Costs: -0.5%e v -1.6% prelim
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 336Ke v 348K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.97Me v 2.964M prior
- 10:00 (US) Jan Factory Orders: -0.5%e v -1.5% prior

 

 

 

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13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

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