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Sunday March 9, 2014 - 12:38:30 GMT
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Slow Week for Data. Markets are weighing Draghi vs. U.S. Jobs
|Slow Week for Data. Markets are weighing Draghi vs. U.S. Jobs|
March 10, 2014 :00:00 gmt
CALENDAR Far East: JP- GDP, Tertiary Activity Index. Europe: No Major Data. North America: No Major Data
| EURUSD 1.3870
|| U.S. 2.79% +6bp
|| North America:Mixed|
| EURJPY 143.30
|| Bund 1.66% +2bp
|| DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6724
|| GILT 2.80% +3bp
|| FTSE: Lower|
| USDJPY 103.30
|| JGB 0.63% 0bp
|| Far East Close: Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- GDP
- February U.S. employment data and (revisions) on Friday were better tan expected in light of the bad weather this winter. Some are saying the data now have a decent base when there is a seasonal catch-up in March-April. On the other hand, the ECB is in no position to ease policy in the foreseeable future.
- As pointed out last week, flash February HICP had increased to 0.80% yr/yr from a final 0.70% reading in January plus core flash HICP was 1.00% yr/yr. Also, German data recently has been been mostly improving over the past month.
- ECB President Draghi has been very clear in his past several meetings: the ECB was not going to ease unless the Eurozone economy turned south sharply. Furthermore, Draghi has said repeatedly that the ECB has no fear of Eurozone deflation in the medium term, and thus the central bank can comfortably run a steady policy unless conditions decisively change. It seems on Thursday the market finally had gotten his message. As a result the tone of the EURUSD has improved, We will see how far it can go.
- Fed Chair Yellen in her most recent testimony tempered her outlook on the economy. On the other hand, February U.S. employment data were better than expected in light of the severe winter weather in that month. Based on the data, the yield on the 10-yr bond rose and equity prices have gained.
- Markets will be keeping a close watch on developments in Ukraine in the period ahead. For now the situation seems to be fading as a market factor.
- The data for the week ahead seems to be relatively quiet. It sees central bank decisions by the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Thursday sees key February employment data from Australia and and U.S. retail Sales data. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released, see the FOREX FORUM.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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